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贵州茅台(600519):稳健增长,降速纾压:——贵州茅台(600519):2025年三季报点评
Guohai Securities· 2025-10-31 14:10
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company demonstrates resilient performance with a rational deceleration, achieving a revenue of 130.90 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, also up by 6.25% [3][5] - In Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, reflecting a slight year-on-year growth of 0.35%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.22 billion yuan, up by 0.48% [3][5] - The company’s product mix shows strong resilience in the premium segment, with revenue from Maotai liquor increasing by 9.28% year-on-year, while revenue from series liquor declined by 7.78% [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1309.04 billion yuan and a net profit of 646.27 billion yuan, both showing positive growth [3][5] - The Q3 2025 results indicate a revenue of 398.10 billion yuan and a net profit of 192.24 billion yuan, with slight increases compared to the previous year [3][5] Product and Market Analysis - Revenue from Maotai liquor in the first three quarters reached 1105.14 billion yuan, while series liquor generated 178.84 billion yuan [5] - In Q3 2025, domestic revenue was 380.45 billion yuan, up by 1.38%, while international revenue was 10.00 billion yuan, down by 21.81% [5] Profitability and Cost Management - The gross profit margin in Q3 2025 improved by 0.23 percentage points to 91.28%, attributed to a higher proportion of Maotai liquor sales [5] - The net profit margin recorded in Q3 was 48.29%, reflecting a slight year-on-year increase [5] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1819.25 billion yuan in 2025, with net profits expected to reach 900.41 billion yuan [7][8] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 71.90 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20 [7][8]