2026 年 1 月 9 日 | H70420@capitalcom.tw | | | --- | --- | | 顾向君 目标价(元) | 1525 | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 食品饮料 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2026/01/08) | 1412.30 | | | 上证指数(2026/01/08) | 4082.98 | | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | 1598.89/1350.11 | | | 总发行股数(百万) | 1252.27 | | | A 股数(百万) | 1252.27 | | | A 市值(亿元) | 17685.81 | | | 主要股东 | 中国贵州茅台 | | | | 酒厂(集团)有限 | | | | 责任公司 | | | | (54.40%) | | | 每股净值(元) | 181.33 | | | 股价/账面净值 | 7.79 | | | | 一个月 三个月 一年 | | | 股价涨跌(%) | 2.52 -1.28 1.69 | | | 近期评等 | | | | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | --- | --- | - ...

记者注意到，今日流出的会议现场照片显示，茅台将在2026年"不再使用分销方式"。白酒独立评论员肖 竹青表示，过去茅台各省销售公司会以市场建议零售价的90%向代理商分销。由于500毫升飞天茅台酒 以外的许多茅台产品市场价格低于建议零售价，这部分产品加剧了代理商的价格倒挂，带来隐性亏损负 担。明年"不再采用分销方式"，相当于为代理商减负。 有茅台经销商今日向记者表示，如果按当前批发价出售，算总账确实会存在一定亏损，但考虑到前几年 茅台生意好做也持续盈利，现阶段的亏损尚可承受。其表示，目前还未接到具体的政策调整通知，但希 望茅台管理层能真正减少市场供应量。 （文章来源：第一财经） 会议上，茅台集团党委书记、董事长陈华表示，首先是让市场更"稳"，要坚持长期主义，致力让茅台的 产品和价格适配市场需求和消费意愿，让其彰显应有的价值和意义。一方面，要供需适配稳基础，在 2026年的投放计划中，适当减少高附加值产品的量，目的就是坚持市场导向和价值导向，进一步明晰产 品定位，更加精准地界定普茅、精品、陈年等产品面向的不同客群和消费场景，靶向施策开展相关市场 活动和品牌宣传，打造更加稳固的"金字塔"型产品体系。另外将根据市场供需 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" with a previous rating of "Buy" as well [2] Core Insights - The report highlights that Guizhou Moutai is focusing on long-term high-quality development, emphasizing channel stability and steady reform progress [2][6][9] - The company acknowledges the current challenges in the liquor industry, indicating that it is in a deep adjustment period with intensified competition [9] - Guizhou Moutai's strategic plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan is characterized by a commitment to quality and a balanced approach between short-term and long-term goals [9] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported revenue of RMB 39.064 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%, and a net profit of RMB 19.224 billion, also up 0.5% year-on-year [11] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 91.3%, slightly up from 91.0% in Q3 2024, while the net profit margin remained stable at 49.2% [11] - The latest diluted earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 72.31, RMB 75.80, and RMB 80.93 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.6X, 18.7X, and 17.5X [6][12] Future Projections - The projected main operating revenue for Guizhou Moutai is expected to reach RMB 180.437 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.6% [8] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is RMB 90.549 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 5.0% [8] - The company plans to maintain a stable dividend policy, with a proposed cash dividend of RMB 23.957 per share for the current year [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in the price of Moutai, a premium liquor brand, reflects broader issues in high-end consumer demand and investment sentiment in China, with prices dropping significantly and the company's financial performance showing signs of weakness [2][4][6] Price Trends - Moutai's retail price has fallen to around 1,590 yuan, with some platforms offering it as low as 1,399 yuan after discounts, marking a significant drop from previous highs [2][4] - The wholesale price of Moutai has decreased from approximately 2,200 yuan at the beginning of the year to around 1,565 yuan, representing a nearly 30% decline over six months [6] Financial Performance - The latest financial report indicates a slight revenue increase of 0.3% year-on-year for Q3 2025, with net profit growth at only 0.5%, marking the lowest quarterly growth rate in nearly 11 years [6][7] - The company's total revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately 1,309.04 million yuan, with a net profit of about 668.99 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.14% [7] Demand and Market Dynamics - The decline in demand is attributed to a decrease in business consumption and high-end gifting, with reports indicating a 30% year-on-year drop in high-end liquor business consumption in Q3 2025 [11] - The average inventory turnover days in the liquor industry have reached 900 days, indicating significant overstock and liquidity issues among distributors [11][12] Strategic Response - Moutai's management is adopting a strategy of "active dormancy" to alleviate pressure on distributors by controlling shipments and reducing inventory burdens [12][13] - The company is also shifting focus from channel-driven sales to direct consumer engagement, including digital initiatives and product diversification aimed at younger consumers [13][14] Long-term Outlook - The current challenges are seen as a transformation of Moutai's value perception from a speculative investment to a recognized consumer brand, requiring time and patience to rebuild a healthier market ecosystem [16][19] - Future strategies include maintaining a focus on brand value, stabilizing market confidence through dividends and share buybacks, and addressing pricing issues across sales channels [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's Q3 report indicates a strategic slowdown in growth to help the industry manage inventory pressure, despite maintaining over 6% growth in total revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of the year [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for the first three quarters exceeded 130.9 billion yuan, with net profit around 64.6 billion yuan, both showing growth of over 6% [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue and profit growth slowed to approximately 0.3%, nearly flat compared to previous periods [1] Industry Context - Industry experts suggest that Moutai's decision to slow down is a proactive measure to assist the sector in digesting inventory pressures, rather than a pursuit of high growth [1] - While Moutai's core products continue to perform well, series products and the online platform iMoutai are experiencing market pressure [1] - Moutai's adjustment sets a positive example for other liquor companies in the industry [1] Investment Opportunities - Following recent adjustments, the stock prices in the liquor sector are at relatively low levels, prompting some institutions to believe that now may be a good time to invest in the food and beverage sector [1] - Analysts indicate that signals of a bottoming out in the liquor industry are becoming more apparent, with well-managed leading companies likely to see better development in the future [1] ETF Insights - The Food and Beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry theme index, focusing on high-barrier and resilient sectors such as liquor, beverages, dairy products, and seasoning [1] - The top ten constituent stocks include major players like Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, providing investors with a convenient way to access core assets in the food and beverage sector [1] - Compared to the high minimum investment thresholds of individual constituent stocks, the ETF offers a more accessible investment tool for smaller capital [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's third-quarter performance shows a significant slowdown, with single-quarter growth dropping to less than 1%, marking a ten-year low, amidst a challenging industry environment and management changes [4][19]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 130.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, also up 6.25% [7]. - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 39.06 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.56%, and net profit was 19.22 billion yuan, up 0.48%, contrasting sharply with the previous year's growth rates of 15.29% and 13.23% respectively [7][11]. Management Changes - On October 25, 2025, Guizhou Moutai announced a leadership change, with Zhang Deqin stepping down as chairman and Chen Hua, the director of the Guizhou Provincial Energy Bureau, taking over [5][19]. - This change marks the fifth leadership transition in seven years, highlighting instability within the company's management [5][19]. Industry Context - The slowdown in Moutai's growth reflects broader challenges in the Chinese liquor industry, which is undergoing a deep adjustment phase characterized by policy changes, shifts in consumer behavior, and intense competition [16]. - The industry is facing a structural shift in consumption patterns, with traditional demand for banquets and gifts declining, while younger consumers are driving a demand for diverse products [16][18]. Product Performance - Moutai's core product, Moutai liquor, saw revenue of 110.51 billion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 9.28%, while the series liquor segment experienced a decline in revenue of 7.8% to 17.88 billion yuan [14]. - In the third quarter, series liquor revenue plummeted by 34% to 4.12 billion yuan, indicating significant pressure on this product line [14]. Inventory and Receivables - As of September 30, 2025, Moutai's accounts receivable rose to 5.21 billion yuan, up significantly from previous periods, while inventory increased to 55.86 billion yuan [15]. - Contract liabilities, an important indicator of future market confidence, decreased to 7.75 billion yuan, suggesting potential challenges in revenue generation [15]. Market Strategy - Moutai is focusing on market research and adjusting its distribution strategies to stabilize its market presence amid the ongoing industry transformation [6][20]. - The company is also addressing the "returning liquor" phenomenon by tightening market controls and adjusting its internationalization strategy to ensure long-term stability [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 130.90 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.32% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 64.63 billion yuan, also showing a year-on-year increase of 6.25% - In Q3 2025, the total revenue was 39.81 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.35% - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 19.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.48% [2][4][11] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The wholesale channel experienced rapid growth, while the direct sales channel saw a decline, primarily due to the performance of the i-Moutai platform - Direct sales revenue in Q3 2025 was 15.55 billion yuan, down 14.87% year-on-year, while wholesale channel revenue was 23.50 billion yuan, up 14.39% year-on-year - Moutai liquor revenue in Q3 2025 was 34.92 billion yuan, up 7.26% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was 4.12 billion yuan, down 34.00% year-on-year [11][11] Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin improved by 0.06 percentage points to 48.29%, and the gross margin increased by 0.21 percentage points to 91.44% - The operating expense ratio decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 7.33%, with specific changes in expense categories: sales expense ratio decreased by 1.02 percentage points, management expense ratio decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and financial expense ratio increased by 0.33 percentage points [11][11] Long-term Growth Potential - Despite short-term impacts from demand fluctuations, the long-term growth potential of the company remains strong - The company has a three-year dividend plan, indicating a gradual establishment of dividend yield value - EPS is projected to be 72.88 yuan and 76.68 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20 and 19 times [11][11]

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai (600519) reported total revenue exceeding 130.9 billion yuan and net profit around 64.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, both showing over 6% growth [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue and profit growth slowed to approximately 0.3%, nearly flat [1] - Industry experts suggest that Moutai is intentionally slowing down to help the industry digest inventory pressure rather than pursuing aggressive growth [1] Company Performance - The core Moutai liquor continues to sell well, but series liquor and the online platform iMoutai are experiencing market pressure [1] - Moutai's proactive adjustment sets a positive example for other liquor companies in the industry [1] Market Outlook - The white liquor sector's stock prices are currently at relatively low levels, prompting many institutions to consider this a good time to invest in the food and beverage sector [1] - Analysts indicate that signals of a bottoming out in the white liquor industry are increasing, with well-managed leading companies expected to see better development in the future [1] Investment Tools - The Food and Beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry index, focusing on high-barrier and resilient sectors like liquor, beverages, and seasoning products [1] - The top ten constituent stocks include major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, providing investors with a convenient way to access core assets in the "food and beverage" sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.00%, and the company continues to maintain a strong market presence with significant revenue and profit growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Guizhou Moutai achieved a revenue of 130.90 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.32%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 64.63 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.25% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 335.55 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 187.53 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of November 10, Guizhou Moutai's stock price was 1462.05 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 1,830.88 billion yuan. The stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 2.30%, but has increased by 1.89% over the last five trading days [1]. - The stock experienced a net inflow of 538 million yuan from main funds, with significant buying activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Guizhou Moutai had 238,500 shareholders, an increase of 8.09% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder was 5,250, which decreased by 7.77% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with notable reductions in holdings for several ETFs [3].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported record high revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but growth rates hit new lows since 2015, prompting the company to focus on maintaining channel resilience in the fourth quarter amid industry adjustments [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Guizhou Moutai achieved revenue of 1284.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, and a net profit of 646.27 billion yuan, up 6.25% [3]. - In Q3 alone, total revenue was 398.10 billion yuan, growing by 0.35%, while net profit was 192.24 billion yuan, increasing by only 0.48% [4]. Strategic Focus - The company emphasized maintaining channel resilience as a core objective for Q4, adapting to new market conditions and consumer habits [5][6]. - Management highlighted the importance of a "transformation and reform" strategy, with ongoing market research across various regions [4][5]. Product Performance - Moutai liquor generated revenue of 1105.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 9.28%, while series liquor revenue fell by 7.78% to 178.84 billion yuan [6]. - The direct sales channel contributed 555.55 billion yuan, a 6.86% increase, while wholesale channel revenue was 728.42 billion yuan, up 6.29% [6]. Market Initiatives - The company is implementing policies to stimulate terminal sales and optimize product distribution to alleviate channel pressures [7]. - Moutai has established a scientific distribution system driven by terminal sales since April, ensuring a healthy inventory level for its products [6]. Shareholder Returns - Guizhou Moutai announced a 30 billion yuan share buyback plan and a 300 billion yuan mid-term dividend to enhance investor confidence [9][10]. - The mid-term profit distribution plan includes a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling approximately 300.01 billion yuan [10]. Historical Context - Since its listing, Guizhou Moutai has distributed cash dividends 29 times, totaling 3661.13 billion yuan, with an average dividend payout ratio of 61.38% [11].