经过这段时间调整，白酒板块的股价已经处在相对低位。不少机构认为，当前或许是布局吃喝板块的好 时机。有分析师明确表示，白酒行业见底的信号越来越多，那些经营稳健、策略清晰的龙头公司，未来 有望迎来更好的发展。 食品饮料ETF（515170）跟踪中证细分食品饮料产业主题指数，聚焦白酒、饮料乳品、调味发酵品等高 壁垒、强韧性板块，前十大成分股囊括"茅五泸汾洋"，帮助投资者一键配置"吃喝板块"核心资产。相较 于其成分股动辄数万、数十万的最低投资门槛，ETF是小资金参与板块投资的便捷工具。（联接A类： 013125；联接C类：013126）。 贵州茅台三季报显示，今年前三季度公司总收入超过1309亿元，净利润约646亿元，都保持了6%以上的 增长。不过单独看第三季度，收入和利润增速都放缓到了0.3%左右，几乎持平。 业内专家解读称，茅台这次是主动放慢脚步，帮助行业消化库存压力，不强行追求高增长。虽然核心的 茅台酒依然卖得不错，但系列酒和线上平台i茅台确实感受到了市场压力。值得一提的是，茅台作为行 业老大主动调整，也给其他酒企带了个好头。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's third-quarter performance shows a significant slowdown, with single-quarter growth dropping to less than 1%, marking a ten-year low, amidst a challenging industry environment and management changes [4][19]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 130.90 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, also up 6.25% [7]. - In the third quarter alone, revenue was 39.06 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.56%, and net profit was 19.22 billion yuan, up 0.48%, contrasting sharply with the previous year's growth rates of 15.29% and 13.23% respectively [7][11]. Management Changes - On October 25, 2025, Guizhou Moutai announced a leadership change, with Zhang Deqin stepping down as chairman and Chen Hua, the director of the Guizhou Provincial Energy Bureau, taking over [5][19]. - This change marks the fifth leadership transition in seven years, highlighting instability within the company's management [5][19]. Industry Context - The slowdown in Moutai's growth reflects broader challenges in the Chinese liquor industry, which is undergoing a deep adjustment phase characterized by policy changes, shifts in consumer behavior, and intense competition [16]. - The industry is facing a structural shift in consumption patterns, with traditional demand for banquets and gifts declining, while younger consumers are driving a demand for diverse products [16][18]. Product Performance - Moutai's core product, Moutai liquor, saw revenue of 110.51 billion yuan in the first three quarters, growing by 9.28%, while the series liquor segment experienced a decline in revenue of 7.8% to 17.88 billion yuan [14]. - In the third quarter, series liquor revenue plummeted by 34% to 4.12 billion yuan, indicating significant pressure on this product line [14]. Inventory and Receivables - As of September 30, 2025, Moutai's accounts receivable rose to 5.21 billion yuan, up significantly from previous periods, while inventory increased to 55.86 billion yuan [15]. - Contract liabilities, an important indicator of future market confidence, decreased to 7.75 billion yuan, suggesting potential challenges in revenue generation [15]. Market Strategy - Moutai is focusing on market research and adjusting its distribution strategies to stabilize its market presence amid the ongoing industry transformation [6][20]. - The company is also addressing the "returning liquor" phenomenon by tightening market controls and adjusting its internationalization strategy to ensure long-term stability [20].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 130.90 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.32% - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 64.63 billion yuan, also showing a year-on-year increase of 6.25% - In Q3 2025, the total revenue was 39.81 billion yuan, with a slight year-on-year growth of 0.35% - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 19.22 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.48% [2][4][11] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The wholesale channel experienced rapid growth, while the direct sales channel saw a decline, primarily due to the performance of the i-Moutai platform - Direct sales revenue in Q3 2025 was 15.55 billion yuan, down 14.87% year-on-year, while wholesale channel revenue was 23.50 billion yuan, up 14.39% year-on-year - Moutai liquor revenue in Q3 2025 was 34.92 billion yuan, up 7.26% year-on-year, while series liquor revenue was 4.12 billion yuan, down 34.00% year-on-year [11][11] Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin improved by 0.06 percentage points to 48.29%, and the gross margin increased by 0.21 percentage points to 91.44% - The operating expense ratio decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 7.33%, with specific changes in expense categories: sales expense ratio decreased by 1.02 percentage points, management expense ratio decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and financial expense ratio increased by 0.33 percentage points [11][11] Long-term Growth Potential - Despite short-term impacts from demand fluctuations, the long-term growth potential of the company remains strong - The company has a three-year dividend plan, indicating a gradual establishment of dividend yield value - EPS is projected to be 72.88 yuan and 76.68 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20 and 19 times [11][11]

Core Insights - Guizhou Moutai (600519) reported total revenue exceeding 130.9 billion yuan and net profit around 64.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, both showing over 6% growth [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue and profit growth slowed to approximately 0.3%, nearly flat [1] - Industry experts suggest that Moutai is intentionally slowing down to help the industry digest inventory pressure rather than pursuing aggressive growth [1] Company Performance - The core Moutai liquor continues to sell well, but series liquor and the online platform iMoutai are experiencing market pressure [1] - Moutai's proactive adjustment sets a positive example for other liquor companies in the industry [1] Market Outlook - The white liquor sector's stock prices are currently at relatively low levels, prompting many institutions to consider this a good time to invest in the food and beverage sector [1] - Analysts indicate that signals of a bottoming out in the white liquor industry are increasing, with well-managed leading companies expected to see better development in the future [1] Investment Tools - The Food and Beverage ETF (515170) tracks the CSI segmented food and beverage industry index, focusing on high-barrier and resilient sectors like liquor, beverages, and seasoning products [1] - The top ten constituent stocks include major brands such as Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, and Fenjiu, providing investors with a convenient way to access core assets in the "food and beverage" sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's stock price has shown fluctuations, with a recent increase of 2.00%, and the company continues to maintain a strong market presence with significant revenue and profit growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Guizhou Moutai achieved a revenue of 130.90 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.32%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 64.63 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.25% compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 335.55 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 187.53 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Stock Market Activity - As of November 10, Guizhou Moutai's stock price was 1462.05 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 1,830.88 billion yuan. The stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 2.30%, but has increased by 1.89% over the last five trading days [1]. - The stock experienced a net inflow of 538 million yuan from main funds, with significant buying activity from large orders [1]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Guizhou Moutai had 238,500 shareholders, an increase of 8.09% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder was 5,250, which decreased by 7.77% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with notable reductions in holdings for several ETFs [3].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported record high revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but growth rates hit new lows since 2015, prompting the company to focus on maintaining channel resilience in the fourth quarter amid industry adjustments [3][4]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Guizhou Moutai achieved revenue of 1284.54 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.36%, and a net profit of 646.27 billion yuan, up 6.25% [3]. - In Q3 alone, total revenue was 398.10 billion yuan, growing by 0.35%, while net profit was 192.24 billion yuan, increasing by only 0.48% [4]. Strategic Focus - The company emphasized maintaining channel resilience as a core objective for Q4, adapting to new market conditions and consumer habits [5][6]. - Management highlighted the importance of a "transformation and reform" strategy, with ongoing market research across various regions [4][5]. Product Performance - Moutai liquor generated revenue of 1105.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 9.28%, while series liquor revenue fell by 7.78% to 178.84 billion yuan [6]. - The direct sales channel contributed 555.55 billion yuan, a 6.86% increase, while wholesale channel revenue was 728.42 billion yuan, up 6.29% [6]. Market Initiatives - The company is implementing policies to stimulate terminal sales and optimize product distribution to alleviate channel pressures [7]. - Moutai has established a scientific distribution system driven by terminal sales since April, ensuring a healthy inventory level for its products [6]. Shareholder Returns - Guizhou Moutai announced a 30 billion yuan share buyback plan and a 300 billion yuan mid-term dividend to enhance investor confidence [9][10]. - The mid-term profit distribution plan includes a cash dividend of 23.957 yuan per share, totaling approximately 300.01 billion yuan [10]. Historical Context - Since its listing, Guizhou Moutai has distributed cash dividends 29 times, totaling 3661.13 billion yuan, with an average dividend payout ratio of 61.38% [11].

Group 1 - The company plans to repurchase shares through centralized bidding, with a total amount between 1.5 billion and 3 billion yuan, and a maximum repurchase price of 1887.63 yuan per share, which is 32.92% higher than the current price of 1420.08 yuan [1] - The stock price of the company has decreased by 4.99% year-to-date [1] - The company’s main business revenue composition includes 86.07% from Moutai liquor and 13.93% from series liquor [1] Group 2 - As of September 30, the number of shareholders increased by 8.09% to 238,500, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 7.77% to 5,250 shares [2] - For the period from January to September 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 130.904 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.627 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.25% [2] - The company has distributed a total of 335.554 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 187.532 billion yuan distributed in the last three years [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [2][5] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's revenue remains resilient, with a reported revenue of 130.9 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.32%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 64.63 billion yuan, also up by 6.25% year-on-year [3] - The company is expected to achieve a sales revenue growth of 4.16% and a net profit growth of 4.42% in 2025, with an estimated EPS of 71.68 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a valuation of 19.94 times earnings, while a target valuation of 25 times earnings suggests a target price of 1792 yuan [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 39.81 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 19.22 billion yuan, up by 0.48% year-on-year. The non-recurring net profit was 19.29 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 0.95% [3] - For the first three quarters of 2025, Moutai liquor and series liquor generated revenues of 110.51 billion yuan and 17.88 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.3% and a decline of 7.8% [3] Channel and Product Structure - The wholesale channel reported a revenue of 23.5 billion yuan in Q3 2025, showing a robust growth of 14.4%, while the direct sales channel saw a decline of 14.9% to 15.55 billion yuan due to temporary adjustments in the i Moutai channel [4] - The company has optimized its product structure, with an increase in gross margin to 91.3% in Q3 2025, primarily due to the higher proportion of Moutai liquor sales [3][4] Cost Management and Cash Flow - The sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 3.1%, and management expenses fell by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%, indicating effective cost control [4] - As of Q3 2025, the company's contract liabilities decreased by 21.97% to 7.75 billion yuan, while accounts receivable increased significantly by 353.38% to 5.21 billion yuan, reflecting improved cash flow management [4] Future Outlook - The report forecasts a stable growth trajectory for Guizhou Moutai, with expected revenue and profit growth rates of 4.16% and 4.42% for 2025, respectively [5][6] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing concentration in the high-end liquor market, which is expected to enhance its competitive advantage [5]

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai's product structure adjustment has impacted gross profit, while net profit margin remains stable [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, gross margin increased by 0.2 percentage points to 91.28%, primarily due to the increased proportion of Moutai liquor and product structure optimization [1] - Sales and management expense ratios decreased by 1 percentage point and 0.3 percentage points to 3.06% and 4.54%, respectively, indicating stable expense ratios [1] Revenue Breakdown - Q3 2025 revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor was 34.924 billion and 4.122 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 7% and a decline of 34%, respectively [1] - The revenue share of Moutai liquor increased by 6 percentage points to 89%, driven by increased kilogram packaging, while series liquor's decline was attributed to a high base in the same period of 2024 [1] Regional Performance - In Q3 2025, domestic and international revenues were 38.045 billion and 1 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 1% and a decline of 22%, respectively [1] - The domestic revenue share increased by 1 percentage point to 97% [1] Market Outlook - Despite a slowdown in performance under pressure from demand, the company maintains positive growth, demonstrating resilience as a market leader [1] - The new chairman emphasizes maintaining a healthy channel ecosystem, and the decline in the price of Feitian is expected to drive demand recovery, with brand strength remaining robust [1] - The investment rating is maintained at "Buy" [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [12]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit for the third quarter met expectations, with total revenue of 130.9 billion yuan and net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.32% and 6.25% respectively [3][6]. - The high-end liquor segment showed steady growth despite external pressures, while the series liquor segment faced challenges, with series liquor revenue declining by 7.78% year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is expected to adjust its annual targets in response to market pressures, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 of 182.91 billion yuan, 192.69 billion yuan, and 205.30 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 5.03%, 5.34%, and 6.55% respectively [6][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 1,430.01 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 179.08 billion yuan [2]. - The company has a total share capital of 1.252 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 19.0% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.83 [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, the gross margin was 91.46%, and the net profit margin was 49.37%, showing slight declines compared to the previous year [5]. - The company reported a total cash collection of 138.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.02%, while the net cash flow from operations was 38.20 billion yuan, down 14.01% year-on-year [5][10]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the next three years are 72.36 yuan, 76.53 yuan, and 82.00 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20, 19, and 18 [6][10].