机构：中信建投证券 研究员：赵然/何泾威 核心观点 2025 年港股在宏观经济复苏、政策利好释放、产业结构升级及全球流动性改善共同推动下交投显著活 跃，港交所业绩同比将实现高增。后市观察2026 年市场成交的延续，主要基于三方面考量：一是美联 储降息周期开启为港股提供持续流动性支持；二是南向资金保持较强流入趋势；三是港股估值相较其他 市场仍具优势，对全球资本具备长期配置吸引力。我们认为，"资产" +"资金"两端共振的背景下，港交 所估值拥有充足的向上空间，维持买入评级。 事件 近日，港交所发布12 月港股市场概况数据。 2025 年IPO 募资金额的高增主因A 股不少头部上市公司赴港带动IPO 融资金额增加，包括宁德时代、恒 瑞医药、海天味业等A 股上市公司实际募资金额合计占港股IPO 募资规模49.02%。此外，港交所自身也 在不断优化上市发行规则，使得港股吸引力不断增强，带动股权募资市场持续活跃。 衍生品&商品市场：2025 年衍生品和商品合约成交量同比实现正增，市场风险对冲需求保持旺盛 2025 年期交所期货及期权总数日均成交张数（ADV）达166.3 万张，同比增长7.1%；其中25Q4 期货及 期权 ...

Summary of Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (HKEX) and its valuation dynamics influenced by various factors, including historical events like the launch of Stock Connect programs and the return of Chinese concept stocks [2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Valuation History**: HKEX has experienced three significant valuation increases historically, with valuations typically above 30 times earnings [2][4]. 2. **Profitability Metrics**: HKEX operates on a light asset model, maintaining an EBITDA margin above 70% and a return on equity (ROE) above 20%, with a stable dividend payout ratio around 90% [2][6]. 3. **IPO Reforms**: Recent reforms have attracted new economy companies, with their market capitalization now exceeding 35%, indicating room for further growth [2][6]. 4. **Southbound Fund Dynamics**: The structure of southbound funds has shifted, with insurance and public funds becoming dominant, contributing over 35% to the average daily trading volume [2][7]. 5. **Cost Reduction for Retail Investors**: HKEX has optimized its settlement fee structure to lower trading costs for small retail investors, aiming to increase participation [2][8]. 6. **Market Recovery Factors**: Anticipated recovery factors for the second half of the year include potential easing of thresholds for Chinese concept stock returns, possible reductions in stamp duty, and changes in the tax treatment of Hong Kong Stock Connect dividends [2][9]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Current Valuation Context**: The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 40 is considered to be at a historical average, with a conservative estimate projecting a net profit of HKD 16.5 billion for 2025, suggesting a target valuation of 42 times earnings, equating to a market cap of approximately HKD 690 billion, indicating a 20% upside potential [3][10]. 2. **Investor Sentiment**: Despite perceptions of high pricing among investors, detailed analysis suggests that HKEX still possesses significant upside potential, warranting a buy rating [11]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the HKEX conference call, highlighting the company's financial health, market dynamics, and future outlook.