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中泰国际每日晨讯-20250820
ZHONGTAI INTERNATIONAL SECURITIES· 2025-08-20 02:08
Market Overview - On August 19, the Hong Kong stock market showed a lack of direction for two consecutive days, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 54 points or 0.2% to close at 25,122 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.7% to 5,542 points. The total market turnover reached HKD 278.2 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 18.57 billion into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, primarily into index ETFs [1] Interest Rates and Liquidity - The one-month HIBOR has risen to 2.57%, a two-month high, as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority continues to withdraw HKD liquidity. The Hong Kong-US interest rate spread has narrowed to 1.76%, leading to a strengthening of the Hong Kong dollar. The rising cost of funds in Hong Kong directly impacts corporate financing and investors' margin borrowing costs, potentially reducing the willingness to use leverage [2] - In the medium term, global liquidity is expected to ease, and if the Federal Reserve resumes preventive rate cuts in September, the one-month HIBOR may rise to around 3% before likely reversing downward [2] Automotive Sector - In the automotive sector, Li Auto (9863 HK) reported a half-year vehicle delivery volume of 221,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 155%, with revenue of CNY 24.25 billion, up 174% year-on-year. The company achieved a gross margin of 14.1%, an increase of 13 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 30 million, marking its first profitable half-year. The management has raised the annual sales target to 580,000-650,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 97%-121% [3] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.6%, attributed to a pullback after consecutive gains. Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 14.3% and a net profit increase of 15.0%. The company's innovative drug product revenue grew rapidly, contributing to a 13.2% increase in total product sales revenue. The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio both decreased, leading to better-than-expected performance [4] Real Estate Sector - The transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities reached 1.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 15.5%, which is worse than the previous week's decline of 12.3%. The cumulative transaction volume in first-tier cities showed a slight narrowing of declines, with Beijing down 5.4%, Shanghai down 1.5%, Guangzhou up 12.4%, and Shenzhen up 6.3% [5][6] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for commodity housing in ten major cities rose to 121.5, higher than the previous year's 98.7 and the prior week's 119.0 [7] - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 66.4% year-on-year, with a total area of 7.35 million square meters [8] - Various supportive measures for the real estate market have been introduced across multiple regions, including new initiatives in Tianjin and Fuzhou [9] Policy Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics reported disappointing figures for July, with new housing starts and completed projects down 15.2% and 29.5% year-on-year, respectively. The overall performance of the real estate market remains weak, but recent policy measures may provide some support [10][12]