例如区几年的新消费股票，在A股就比较 难上市，在港股恒生消费指数中就有比 较多的比例。 文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） TT) 关羽门ATH?TTT il 主要是自身有现金流、有造血功能的公 司的股票，例如港股红利股，股息率比 较高。 港股欢迎更多新股上市,为全球投资 者,提供了人民币资产的投资标的，这 是它的独特优势。 (2) 另一方面,新股多了,会稀释港股 资金，对港股流动性是一个考验。 在美联储降息周期，港股流动性比前几 年充裕，发行多一些的新股还能承受。 到了流动性紧张的时候，这些多出来的 新股，对港股也是一个考验。 例如2025年12月最近一个月，港股估值 回落，新股频繁出现破发。这一定程度 上,会抑制港股新股的发行节奏。 在港股投资的时候，也有一些港股类品 种、受影响会相对小一些。 在港股熊市的时候，港股红利的波动也 相对小一些。 红利类品种是熊市比较坚挺的品种，也 是因为它自身有现金流，分红再投入可 以起到支撑。 例如港股科技的一些龙头公司，在估值 低的时候，会有大比例回购。 港股科技股的回购数据,也是港股估值 的一个定性指标。一般这些港股科技 股,会在估值回到低估的时候提高回购 规模。 ...

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market opened lower but maintained an upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.58% at 26,085.08 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.84% to 5,662.46 points, while the China Enterprises Index increased by 1.01% to 9,198.3 points [1] - Major financial stocks saw significant gains, with China Ping An rising over 6% and other insurance stocks also increasing by more than 5% [1] Company News - Country Garden (02007.HK) has completed its debt restructuring, reducing its debt by over 90 billion yuan [2] - Longfor Group (03380.HK) has received debt restructuring offers for bonds with a total face value of 13.66 billion yuan [3] - Greentown China (03900.HK) reported a total contract sales amount of approximately 223.5 billion yuan for the first 11 months, a year-on-year decrease of 9.44% [4] - Hongyang Real Estate (01996.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of 4.181 billion yuan for the first 11 months, down 47.87% year-on-year [5] - Sunac China (01918.HK) achieved a contract sales amount of approximately 33.89 billion yuan for the first 11 months, a decrease of 25.34% year-on-year [6] - China Overseas Macro Holdings (00081.HK) reported a cumulative contract sales amount of 29.615 billion yuan for the first 11 months, down 16.6% year-on-year [7] Pharmaceutical and Biotechnology Developments - Stone Four Pharmaceutical Group (02005.HK) received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for the registration of Bilastine and Picosulfate Sodium as raw materials for listed formulations [8] - Kelun-Botai Biotech (06990.HK) has entered into a strategic partnership with Crescent to jointly develop and commercialize cancer treatment methods, with an upfront payment of 80 million USD and potential milestone payments of up to 1.25 billion USD [8] Market Outlook - Guoyuan International notes uncertainty in the Federal Reserve's decision-making for December, influenced by recent hawkish tones from the Bank of Japan, which may create short-term external disturbances for the Hong Kong market [10] - According to CMB International, the pharmaceutical industry is expected to see a key turning point in 2025, with a stable outlook continuing into 2026 [10] - According to Everbright Securities, the Hang Seng Index's current P/E ratio is above the average of the past five years, indicating a recovery in overall valuation, while the tech index has room for growth [11]

光大证券国际表示，恒指目前处于约25700点的水平，与公司2025年全年目标25000点相若，认为港股明 年有机会再次见到30000点以上的水平，值得关注的四大板块为中资金融、智能科技、能源有色、本地 金融。该行产品开发及零售研究部预期，2026年上半年主要央行维持宽松政策以稳定经济。美国关税政 策及美国政府停摆天数创纪录，虽然短期影响市场情绪，但明年上半年美国仍可能减息一次，将支持资 金流向新兴市场，有利内地及香港股市向上。该行证券策略师伍礼贤表示，经历2025年反弹后，从估值 来看，目前恒指市盈率高于过去5年均值，并向上偏离约一个标准差，反映总体估值有所修复，但处合 理区间；而科技指数刚回升至5年均值，反映估值仍有追落后的空间。至于整个市场的股息环境，虽然 恒指股息率以及高息指数的股息率分别回落至大概3%、6%附近的水平，但相对目前内地利率环境，吸 引力仍然突出。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has reached a new milestone with significant inflows of southbound capital, indicating a transformation in market liquidity and activity, driven by strategic allocations from mainland investors seeking undervalued assets and high-quality stocks [2][4]. Group 1: Southbound Capital Inflows - On November 10, southbound capital through the Stock Connect net inflow reached 6.654 billion HKD, bringing the year-to-date net purchase amount to over 1.3 trillion HKD, and the cumulative net inflow since the launch of Stock Connect surpassed 5 trillion HKD [2][4]. - The major indices in the Hong Kong market, including the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng Tech Index, and Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, have all seen year-to-date increases of over 30%, positioning them among the top performers globally [4]. - In 2023, southbound capital showed a significant acceleration in inflows, with 57 trading days recording net inflows exceeding 10 billion HKD, primarily concentrated in the first half of the year [4][5]. Group 2: Factors Driving Inflows - The increase in southbound capital is driven by five main factors: valuation discounts compared to A-shares, ongoing demand for tech leaders and high-dividend assets in a declining domestic interest rate environment, optimized connectivity mechanisms, inherent demand from long-term domestic funds, and enhanced liquidity expectations due to global interest rate cuts [5][6]. - The phenomenon of "asset scarcity" is also noted, where abundant capital is seeking quality assets, leading to increased southbound capital inflows as domestic funds look for effective allocation opportunities [6]. Group 3: Pricing Power and Market Dynamics - The continuous inflow of southbound capital has improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market and enhanced the pricing power of mainland funds, which accounted for approximately 34.64% of the market's trading volume in 2024 [8]. - As of now, the market value held by southbound capital is about 6.21 trillion HKD, representing 12.93% of the total market capitalization [8]. - Insurance and public funds constitute over 40% of the southbound capital, with public funds showing a compound annual growth rate of 23.5% in their holdings from 2020 to 2025 [8][9]. Group 4: Valuation and Future Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market remains attractive in terms of valuation compared to global markets, with the forward P/E ratio of the Hang Seng Tech Index at 20.4, lower than its five-year average and significantly below the Nasdaq's 30.9 [12]. - The influx of mainland capital and the listing of more unique enterprises in Hong Kong are expected to create a positive feedback loop, enhancing liquidity and profitability in the market [11]. - Despite the high gains in 2023, the Hong Kong market's valuation still presents a compelling case for further investment from mainland funds [12].

Core Insights - Despite a significant year-to-date increase in the MSCI Hong Kong Index, its valuation remains below the ten-year average, making it one of the cheapest stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region, excluding ASEAN [1] - As of the end of September, passive funds have seen a cumulative inflow of $18 billion into the Chinese stock market this year [1] - The technology sector in Hong Kong has become a focal point for foreign investment, with institutions viewing it as having both valuation safety margins and growth potential [1] - Analysts suggest that with local economic stabilization, a recovery in the IPO market, and improved global liquidity due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, the Hong Kong technology sector is likely to continue gaining revaluation momentum [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that this upward trend will extend until 2026, providing long-term investment opportunities for investors [1] Sector Analysis - The technology sector in Hong Kong is highlighted as a key area for foreign investment due to its attractive valuation and growth prospects [1] - Specific ETFs related to the Hong Kong technology sector include the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (159101), which covers the entire technology supply chain, and the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330), which focuses on leading internet companies [1]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened down 2.5%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 2.43%. Major tech stocks, including Xiaomi and Alibaba, saw declines of over 4% and 3% respectively [1]. Short-term Market Sentiment - Huatai Securities indicated that the key to short-term trading direction lies in whether market sentiment has reached an extreme level. Their constructed sentiment indicator suggests there is still room for further release. The evolving path of trade friction over the next couple of weeks is expected to have high variance, leading to continued volatility. Tactical advice includes moderate defense and recommending high-quality cash flow assets in Hong Kong, with "TACO" trades to be executed in batches [1]. Medium to Long-term Outlook - China Galaxy Strategy believes that the escalation of Sino-U.S. trade friction has led to a decrease in investor risk appetite, resulting in a valuation correction for Hong Kong stocks. However, with domestic policies supporting stable growth and medium to long-term measures to stabilize the stock market, investor sentiment is expected to gradually stabilize. Currently, Hong Kong stock valuations are at a historically high level, and the market is anticipated to experience wide fluctuations [1]. Foreign Investment Dynamics - The Guotai Junan overseas strategy team reported that foreign capital dominates most sub-sectors in the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in the internet, finance, and most consumer sectors. Conversely, the southbound investment has gained significant pricing power in a few sectors such as telecommunications, coal, petrochemicals, military, and semiconductors over the past two years [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a positive outlook for Hong Kong stocks, with significant increases in various indices, suggesting strong market performance and potential for future growth [1] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare Index rose by 5.1%, while the Hang Seng New Economy Index increased by 4%, indicating robust investor interest in these sectors [1] - The report from Founder Securities highlights the attractiveness of Hong Kong stocks in terms of valuation, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to attract continued inflows from southbound and foreign capital [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng New Economy ETF tracks the Hang Seng Stock Connect New Economy Index, which consists of 50 large-cap stocks in the new economy sector, showing a rolling P/E ratio of 23.0 times and a valuation percentile of 42.4% since 2018 [2] - The Hang Seng Technology ETF, which tracks the Hang Seng Technology Index, comprises 30 major tech-related stocks, with a rolling P/E ratio of 21.2 times and a valuation percentile of 17.7% since its inception in 2020 [2] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Healthcare Index, which includes 50 liquid and large-cap healthcare stocks, has a rolling P/E ratio of 29.9 times and a valuation percentile of 47.4% since 2017 [3] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet Index consists of 30 leading internet companies, with a rolling P/E ratio of 22.5 times and a valuation percentile of 13.3% since its launch in 2021 [3] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumption Theme Index includes 50 large-cap consumer stocks, with a rolling P/E ratio of 20.6 times and a valuation percentile of 14.4% since its inception in 2020 [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Hong Kong stock market (港股) and its performance in 2025, with a focus on various sectors including healthcare, non-essential consumer goods, and financial services [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy**: There is a strong expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, with a probability exceeding 80% for two or more rate cuts by the end of the year. This is anticipated to lower the U.S. risk-free rate, attracting foreign capital into the Hong Kong market, thus providing liquidity support [1][2][5][6]. - **Sector Performance**: - The healthcare and non-essential consumer sectors have seen significant increases in trading activity in 2025, with healthcare nearly doubling in performance [3][9]. - The financial sector experienced a peak in trading volume in July but saw a decline in August. Despite this, it is the closest to breaking historical highs, with only a 3% gap remaining [3][13][14]. - Most sectors are still valued below the historical 50th percentile, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][11][12]. - **Market Valuation**: The overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market remains attractive, with high dividend yields providing a safety net for investors. Most sectors have a PE ratio below the 50th percentile, except for real estate, construction, and telecommunications, which are above this threshold [3][11][12]. - **Future Market Outlook**: The expectation is that the Hong Kong stock market will perform better over the next decade compared to the past ten years, with economic growth correlating positively with stock market returns. The market is anticipated to rebound ahead of the real estate sector during downturns [3][8][16]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Inflation Risks**: The Federal Reserve views the impact of tariffs as likely temporary, but there are concerns about rising wages and consumer inflation expectations that could pose long-term inflation risks. Current data suggests these risks are low [7]. - **Real Estate Sector Challenges**: The real estate and construction sectors are currently the furthest from historical highs and face challenges despite recent policy support aimed at stabilizing the market [15]. - **Investment Preferences**: There is a noted preference among large funds, such as insurance companies, for high dividend yield assets in a low-interest-rate environment, which enhances the attractiveness of these investments [12]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Hong Kong stock market and its various sectors.

Market Overview - On August 19, the Hong Kong stock market showed a lack of direction for two consecutive days, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 54 points or 0.2% to close at 25,122 points. The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.7% to 5,542 points. The total market turnover reached HKD 278.2 billion, with a net inflow of HKD 18.57 billion into the Hong Kong Stock Connect, primarily into index ETFs [1] Interest Rates and Liquidity - The one-month HIBOR has risen to 2.57%, a two-month high, as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority continues to withdraw HKD liquidity. The Hong Kong-US interest rate spread has narrowed to 1.76%, leading to a strengthening of the Hong Kong dollar. The rising cost of funds in Hong Kong directly impacts corporate financing and investors' margin borrowing costs, potentially reducing the willingness to use leverage [2] - In the medium term, global liquidity is expected to ease, and if the Federal Reserve resumes preventive rate cuts in September, the one-month HIBOR may rise to around 3% before likely reversing downward [2] Automotive Sector - In the automotive sector, Li Auto (9863 HK) reported a half-year vehicle delivery volume of 221,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 155%, with revenue of CNY 24.25 billion, up 174% year-on-year. The company achieved a gross margin of 14.1%, an increase of 13 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 30 million, marking its first profitable half-year. The management has raised the annual sales target to 580,000-650,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 97%-121% [3] Healthcare Sector - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.6%, attributed to a pullback after consecutive gains. Hansoh Pharmaceutical (3692 HK) exceeded market expectations, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 14.3% and a net profit increase of 15.0%. The company's innovative drug product revenue grew rapidly, contributing to a 13.2% increase in total product sales revenue. The sales expense ratio and management expense ratio both decreased, leading to better-than-expected performance [4] Real Estate Sector - The transaction volume of new homes in 30 major cities reached 1.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decline of 15.5%, which is worse than the previous week's decline of 12.3%. The cumulative transaction volume in first-tier cities showed a slight narrowing of declines, with Beijing down 5.4%, Shanghai down 1.5%, Guangzhou up 12.4%, and Shenzhen up 6.3% [5][6] - The inventory-to-sales ratio for commodity housing in ten major cities rose to 121.5, higher than the previous year's 98.7 and the prior week's 119.0 [7] - The land transaction volume in 100 major cities fell by 66.4% year-on-year, with a total area of 7.35 million square meters [8] - Various supportive measures for the real estate market have been introduced across multiple regions, including new initiatives in Tianjin and Fuzhou [9] Policy Outlook - The National Bureau of Statistics reported disappointing figures for July, with new housing starts and completed projects down 15.2% and 29.5% year-on-year, respectively. The overall performance of the real estate market remains weak, but recent policy measures may provide some support [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in the first half of the year, with significant increases in IPO activities and overall market indices, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [1][3][4]. IPO Market - In the first half of the year, Hong Kong completed 42 IPOs, raising over HKD 107 billion, which is approximately 22% more than the total for the previous year, making it the top global market for IPOs [1][3]. - There has been a rapid increase in IPO applications, with around 200 applications received so far, doubling from the beginning of the year, including interest from companies in the Middle East and Southeast Asia [4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half of the year, marking the largest increase in points ever recorded for this period [1][3]. - Despite a recent pullback, the absolute valuation of Hong Kong stocks remains relatively low, suggesting strong medium to long-term investment potential [2][7]. Exchange-Traded Products (ETPs) - There are over 210 ETPs listed in Hong Kong, with total managed assets nearing HKD 510 billion, a 30% increase since 2020, and daily trading volume has increased fivefold to approximately HKD 40 billion [5][6]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange is actively promoting the listing of various themed ETFs, including those focused on innovative technology, climate change, renewable energy, and biotechnology [6]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector is highlighted as having significant investment value, with strong policy support and growth potential, while consumer sectors are expected to improve due to domestic consumption policies [7][8]. - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index show attractive valuation metrics, with the former having a TTM P/E ratio of 10.68, indicating a favorable investment environment compared to other major markets [8].