此外，华泰证券表示，针对10月14日生效的中美互征港口费的规定，管理层表示，截至目前，公司未有 25%或以上股权由美国或中国实体或个人直接或间接持有，因为管理层认为中美港口费规定均不适用于 太平洋航运，公司经营情况正常。展望4Q，该行认为中美贸易摩擦及港口费或将影响全球船舶运力部 署和港口挂靠，造成供应链扰动，推升市场运价。预计公司4Q日均收入环比将进一步上涨，维持"买 入"。 消息面上，太平洋航运近日公告，2025年第三季度，集团的核心业务取得小灵便型及超灵便型干散货船 按期租合约对等基准的日均收入分别为11680美元及13410美元，其按年变动分别为减少15%及增加 10%，与上半年的按期租合约对等基准日均收入相比则分别为增加6%及增加10%。汇丰环球研究指，公 司在即期费率上涨时通常落后，基于租船合约与航程执行滞后效应。该行曾对潜在产能过剩持谨慎态 度，但即期费率因小型散货贸易韧性反弹，该贸易在今年首三季按年升4%。供应中断及船速减缓进一 步抵销船队增长影响。公司第四季更高的合约覆盖率，意味下半年盈利将强于上半年。 太平洋航运(02343)涨超4%，截至发稿，涨4.03%，报2.58港元，成交额2295 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the volatile impact of U.S. tariff policies on the shipping industry, suggesting that while these policies have temporarily benefited shipping companies, they are likely to lead to a significant downturn in the near future [1][2]. Group 1: Shipping Industry Performance - In 2022, the global container shipping industry saw profits soar to $520 billion due to increased demand during the pandemic, but profits are expected to decline in 2023 due to weakening demand [3]. - The shipping industry is projected to experience a profit rebound in 2024, reaching $78 billion, driven by increased shipping volumes and freight rates [3]. - The shipping volume to the U.S. in the first half of this year was 3.8% higher than in 2024, indicating a temporary surge in demand [3]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - U.S. tariffs have led to a temporary increase in shipping profits as companies rush to import goods before potential tariff hikes, but this has created a cycle of volatility in profit margins [3][4]. - The expectation of increased tariffs has caused shipping companies to "front-load" imports, which may result in a lackluster fall season for shipping demand [4]. - The imposition of high port fees on foreign vessels is seen as a misguided attempt to boost domestic shipbuilding, which may lead to increased shipping costs and further market instability [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The shipping industry is expected to face challenges in the second half of the year, with potential profits of $20 billion, but 2026 is anticipated to be a particularly difficult year [4]. - HSBC estimates that global shipping demand will grow at an average rate of only 2% from 2025 to 2027, significantly lower than the previous year's growth of 6% [4]. - The industry may soon experience a significant oversupply of capacity, leading to a sharp decline in freight rates unless the U.S. finds new ways to support global shipping [4].