Global Market Overview - The global markets experienced increased volatility this week, with most markets showing fluctuations. The US stock market rebounded after a significant drop last week, but faced volatility due to banking issues and tariff policy uncertainties, leading to a rise in the VIX index [1][2] - The TAMAMA Technology Index has a P/E ratio of 37.1, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at 51.5, and the Nasdaq Index at 42.9, indicating that US tech stocks remain historically overvalued [1][2] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio is at 39.79, close to the 40 high range, suggesting continued pressure for adjustment in the US market due to economic fundamentals and tariff uncertainties [1][2] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw gains this week, with increases of 1.7%, 2.14%, and 1.56% respectively [2][12] - Within the S&P 500, the communications sector had the highest increase at 3.64%, while the financial sector had the smallest gain at 0.02% [12][16] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both declined, with drops of 3.97% and 3.7% respectively. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell by 7.98% [24][30] - The utilities sector was the only sector to show a gain, increasing by 1.38%, while the information technology sector saw the largest decline at 8.21% [28][30] Economic Data - In September 2025, the Eurozone CPI year-on-year growth rate was 2.2%, up from the previous 2% [2][46] - The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for October 2025 was -31.8, lower than the previous -28.8, indicating a decline in economic sentiment [40][46] - Japan's industrial production index year-on-year growth rate for October 2025 was -1.64%, down from -0.37% previously [42][46]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 美联储 9 月降息落地，本周全球市场分化 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美国降息落地，全球市场走势分 化。受到美联储降息 25bp 的短期提振，本周美股市场上涨。另 一方面，美联储降息侧面反映美国经济基本面压力偏大。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率进一步上升至 37.1；费城半导体指数 市盈率快速上升至 49.2，再次临近 50；纳斯达克指数的市盈率 上升至 42.9。由于美股科技股估值压力较大，叠加美国关税、 贸易政策带来的影响，叠加权重股英伟达阶段较为疲软，美股 科技股中期仍然容易出现调整；美股科技指数仍然中期维度容 易出现压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率进一步上升至 39.95，进 一步接近于 40 的高位区间，仅次于互联网泡沫时期的 44.19 的 峰值。由于美国经济基本面问题仍然存在，叠加贸易政策、关 税问题的影响，且美股估值处于偏高阶段，美股中金融、通讯 服务、消费、工业等行业中期维度仍然存在调整的趋势。 ...