证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 9 月 20 日 [Table_Title] 美联储 9 月降息落地，本周全球市场分化 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:本周美国降息落地，全球市场走势分 化。受到美联储降息 25bp 的短期提振，本周美股市场上涨。另 一方面，美联储降息侧面反映美国经济基本面压力偏大。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率进一步上升至 37.1；费城半导体指数 市盈率快速上升至 49.2，再次临近 50；纳斯达克指数的市盈率 上升至 42.9。由于美股科技股估值压力较大，叠加美国关税、 贸易政策带来的影响，叠加权重股英伟达阶段较为疲软，美股 科技股中期仍然容易出现调整；美股科技指数仍然中期维度容 易出现压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率进一步上升至 39.95，进 一步接近于 40 的高位区间，仅次于互联网泡沫时期的 44.19 的 峰值。由于美国经济基本面问题仍然存在，叠加贸易政策、关 税问题的影响，且美股估值处于偏高阶段，美股中金融、通讯 服务、消费、工业等行业中期维度仍然存在调整的趋势。 ...

Global Market Overview - The US stock market continued its rebound, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.5%, 2.18%, and 1.17% respectively [2][11] - The Hong Kong stock market also saw gains, with the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rising by 2.16%, 2.34%, and 1.93% respectively [2][23] - The TAMAMA Technology Index has a P/E ratio of 32.2, indicating it remains in a high valuation zone above 30 [1][16] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio increased to 45.8, also indicating a high valuation above 45 [1][16] - The Nasdaq Index's P/E ratio is at 39.9, nearing the high zone of 40 [1][16] US Market Insights - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio has risen to 36.91, significantly above historical averages [1][16] - The uncertainty in US economic policies and high valuations are putting pressure on sectors such as finance, consumer, communication services, and industrials [1][16] - Major individual stocks within growth and value sectors are experiencing notable daily corrections [1][16] European Market Insights - European markets have shown a rebound, but rapid valuation increases combined with weak economic fundamentals may lead to volatility in indices such as the FTSE 100, CAC40, DAX, and STOXX50 [1][2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market is experiencing further differentiation, with previously overheated assets beginning to cool down [1][38] - There is an expectation of continued differentiation in the Hong Kong market, with potential for stage corrections in assets that have seen significant gains in the first half of the year [1][38] - Structural opportunities may exist in low-valuation assets with good fundamentals and minimal trade impact, as the market has not yet formed a comprehensive bull market [1][38] Emerging Markets Insights - Emerging markets such as Istanbul ISE100, India SENSEX30, and others are likely to experience volatility due to economic fundamentals and policy uncertainties [1][2]

US Market Insights - The S&P 500 index, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all increased by 1.5%, 2.18%, and 1.17% respectively this week[2] - The TAMAMA technology index has a P/E ratio of 32.2, indicating it remains in a high valuation zone above 30[1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's P/E ratio rose to 45.8, also indicating a high valuation above 45[1] - The S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio increased to 36.91, significantly above historical averages[1] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rose by 2.16%, 2.34%, and 1.93% respectively this week[2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 2.25% this week[3] - The market is experiencing further differentiation, with previously overheated assets beginning to cool down[1] - Structural opportunities exist in low-valuation assets with good fundamentals and minimal trade impact[1] Economic Indicators - Eurozone CPI year-on-year growth was 1.9% in May, down from 2.2%[3] - Eurozone core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.3%, down from 2.7%[3] - The US unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in May[42]