港股通套利
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南向游资套利路径隐现:“炒小、炒新、炒妖” 借纳入港股通安全撤退
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-11-24 11:37
随着南向资金累计净买入规模突破5万亿港元,其在港股市场的定价权正持续提升。Wind数据显示,三季度港股通成 交额占比已达23.6%,持仓总市值突破6.3万亿港元。这标志着内地资金已成为港股市场流动性的重要驱动力。 然而,在市场结构深刻变革的背后,新的风险因素正在积聚。业内观察发现,部分内地游资正通过系统化的资本运 作,利用港股通机制进行跨市场套利。招商证券(香港)分析师宁铂表示,2025年以来,游资已形成"选中标的—暴 力拉升—助推入通—被动资金接盘—成功出货"的完整运作链条。 以药捷安康-B(02617.HK)为例,该股在纳入港股通前股价涨幅超136%,纳入后单日涨幅一度达115.58%,但随后出 现单日暴跌53.73%的极端行情。类似的剧烈波动,在多只新纳入港股通的医药股中同样显现。这些标的普遍具有流通 盘小、上市时间短、概念热门等特点,更容易成为资金炒作的对象。 南向资金占比增加 Wind数据显示,南向资金累计净买入港股规模在11月10日突破5万亿港元之后,仍在持续增长。24日,南向资金通过 港股通净流入港股市场85.71亿港元,使得年内净买入额突破1.37万亿港元。 拉长时间线看,"北水"南下已成为推 ...
11.11日报
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-11 13:27
Group 1: Beike's Q3 Performance - Beike reported Q3 revenue of 23.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.07%, with second-hand housing revenue at 6 billion, down 3.6%, new housing business at 6.6 billion, down 14.07%, home decoration and furnishing revenue at 4.3 billion, up 2.4%, and rental income at 5.7 billion, up 45.32%; net profit was 750 million, down 36.1% [1] - Despite the extreme downturn in the real estate market, Beike's revenue growth is seen as a positive sign, with the potential for profit to increase significantly once the real estate sector recovers [1] Group 2: Xiaopeng's Market Performance - Xiaopeng's stock surged due to the successful launch of a robot, being compared to Tesla, with its valuation directly aligned with it; the stock has increased fourfold over the past year, making it the top-performing new energy vehicle stock [1] - However, there is skepticism regarding the actual performance of Xiaopeng's robot, as reliable data to validate its capabilities is still lacking [1] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market Trends - Southbound funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect have exceeded 50 billion HKD, with a net buying amount of over 1.3 trillion this year; the total market capitalization of Hong Kong stocks is approximately 21 trillion, with the Stock Connect accounting for about one-fourth of this, indicating a likely increase in dominance [2] - This trend may lead to the elimination of stocks with absurdly low valuations, presenting a clear arbitrage opportunity [2] Group 4: Precious Metals Market - Gold and silver prices have surged, with gold surpassing 4100; however, the performance of gold and silver stocks has been mixed, showing high openings but low closings, indicating potential downward pressure [2] - Long-term prospects for gold and silver remain positive, with major investment banks bullish on these commodities [2] Group 5: Food Delivery Sector Losses - Goldman Sachs anticipates significant losses in the Q3 food delivery sector, with Alibaba losing 36 billion, Meituan 20 billion, and JD 13 billion; Alibaba's stock has been under pressure ahead of its earnings report [2] - Despite the losses, it is suggested that Alibaba's food delivery service has contributed approximately 3% growth to its e-commerce segment, which could expand further if the right strategies are employed [2] Group 6: Huazhu's Stock Movement - Huazhu has experienced two consecutive trading halts due to potential demolition of its theme park in Shenzhen, which may yield substantial compensation; despite falling property prices, the real estate sector has shown some positive movement recently [3] Group 7: Global Market Outlook - Global stock markets are currently at high levels, with a 60% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December; this could have significant implications for the domestic market, particularly benefiting real estate and dividend stocks if a 25 basis point cut occurs [4]