Core Viewpoint - V社's new "trade-in" policy significantly impacts the CS:GO skin market, which has been characterized by speculation and inflated prices for three years, leading to a drastic reduction in the value of high-end items [1][3][5] Market Impact - The introduction of the new policy has disrupted the balance of the in-game item market, allowing players to synthesize rare items from cheaper ones, thus decreasing their scarcity [3][5] - Following the announcement, the price of the butterfly knife plummeted from 40,000 to 10,000, and the sports gloves lost 27,000 in value, with the market index dropping over 40% within two days, reaching a historical low [3][5] Speculation and Financialization - CS:GO skins have evolved from mere cosmetic items to social currency and investment assets, attracting a growing number of speculators who manipulate supply and demand to create artificial scarcity [6][7] - At the peak, nearly 30% of transactions in the market were attributed to professional speculators, who utilized AI for quantitative trading and leveraged financial strategies to treat skins as inflation-resistant assets [7][9] V社's Regulatory Measures - In response to rampant speculation, V社 has implemented several measures, including a T+7 trading restriction and a trading protection mechanism to safeguard players from fraud [11][12] - The company has also introduced new features like the Genesis Box, allowing players to earn items through gameplay without purchasing keys, aiming to stabilize the market [11][12] Player Engagement and Market Dynamics - Despite the volatility, CS:GO maintains a stable player base, with peak concurrent players exceeding 1.8 million in May 2023, and average players fluctuating between 120,000 to 160,000 [12][13] - The game's ecosystem has developed into a complex network involving players, trading platforms, streamers, and speculators, which poses challenges for V社 in maintaining market balance [16][18] Competitive Landscape - V社 faces increasing competition from other games like Riot's Valorant, which has gained significant traction and revenue, prompting V社 to take decisive actions to protect its market position [14][15] - The company's struggle to manage the ecosystem effectively has led to concerns about its ability to regulate and sustain a healthy gaming environment, especially in light of past issues like match-fixing scandals [16][17][18]

昨日，《CS2》游戏饰品市场剧烈震荡，指数日K上收出一根大阴线，饰品总市场估值从59亿美元暴跌至42亿美元，一日蒸发近20亿美元。其中，高端饰 品迎来集体跳水。据《科创板日报》统计，包括专业手套、蝴蝶刀在内的一众稀有道具，单日内普遍跌超50%。 下跌诱因是，游戏公司Valve当日公布《CS2》重大更新，导致高端饰品稀缺性不再——新推出的"以旧换新合同"功能，允许玩家用5件红色皮肤合成金色 饰品。在游戏中，金色饰品曾是一类极其稀有的道具，此前仅能通过开箱随机获取（获取率约为0.26%）或在交易平台购买。与之形成对比的是，红色皮 肤的存量仍相当丰富。 由于其投机属性，在游戏圈中，玩家们常将《CS2》饰品市场与股票市场相类比。昨日的崩盘，也被玩家们普遍看作是一次"黑天鹅"事件。 然而实际情况是，Valve此番实施"以旧换新"并非毫无征兆。根据Valve的交易规则，玩家通过开箱、市场购买获取的饰品，在7天内无法再次交易，即遵 循所谓的"T+7"制度。今年7月，Valve进一步改革交易规则，令饰品在交易后需等待7天"保护期"才能再次流通，由于期间玩家可随时撤销交易，因此呈现 出"T+14"的特点。 无论是"以旧换新"还 ...

以下文章来源于科创板日报 ，作者张真 科创板日报 . 专注科创板和科技创新，上海报业集团主管主办，界面财联社出品。 仅仅一天，《CS2》玩家们的天塌了。 昨日，《CS2》游戏饰品市场剧烈震荡，指数日K上收出一根大阴线，饰品总市场估值从59亿美元暴跌至42亿美元，一日蒸发近20亿美 元。其中，高端饰品迎来集体跳水。据《科创板日报》统计，包括专业手套、蝴蝶刀在内的一众稀有道具，单日内普遍跌超50%。 然而实际情况是， Valve此番实施"以旧换新"并非毫无征兆 。 根据Valve的交易规则，玩家通过开箱、市场购买获取的饰品，在7天内无法 再次交易，即遵循所谓的"T+7"制度。今年7月，Valve进一步改革交易规则，令饰品在交易后需等待7天"保护期"才能再次流通，由于期间 面对崩盘，甚至有《CS2》职业选手选择恐慌性出逃。昨日MOUZ战队选手Spinx发文称："我卖掉了所有东西，我退出CS2市场。疯狂的抛 售与操纵，一切都太夸张了。" 玩家可随时撤销交易，因此呈现出"T+14"的特点。 无论是"以旧换新"还是"T+14"，本质上，都削弱了《CS2》游戏饰品的投机属性。此前《CS2》游戏饰品市场投机行为普遍，今年7至 ...