Market Overview - The commodity market has shown significant differentiation since 2025, with precious metals like gold and silver leading the market, increasing by 63% and 111% respectively, while energy and agricultural products have underperformed, with crude oil down 16% and agricultural indices only slightly up by 3% [5][12] - As of early 2026, metals such as gold, silver, copper, and aluminum continue to rise, with smaller metals like nickel and tin experiencing sharp increases, indicating a clear rotation in the market and heightened investor sentiment regarding the potential onset of a new super cycle in commodities [5][12] Historical Super Cycles - Since 1850, there have been five historical super cycles in commodities, characterized by a pattern of "bull short, bear long," with the average upward phase lasting about 13 years and a price increase of approximately 75%, while the downward phase averages 21 years with a price decline of about 47% [5][13][21] - The first cycle (1850-1898) was driven by the spread of the Industrial Revolution and global infrastructure development, while the second cycle (1899-1932) was influenced by the Second Industrial Revolution and World War I, leading to price increases in strategic resources like copper and oil [14][16][21] Bullish Logic: Financial Attributes and Industrial Trends - The bullish argument is primarily based on the safe-haven value and industrial demand, with global monetary easing and fiscal expansion contributing to a noticeable recovery in economic sentiment across major economies [23][25] - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization has positioned commodities as a preferred option for sovereign nations to hedge against credit devaluation, with central banks continuing to increase their gold reserves, indicating a potential rise in commodity ETF allocations [25][30] Bearish Views: Demand Slowdown and Policy Constraints - Bearish concerns focus on the demand side, highlighting a lack of new engines for growth, particularly as emerging economies like India exhibit "dematerialization" growth, leading to lower metal consumption per unit of GDP [64] - Central banks are increasingly prioritizing inflation control, which may lead to a tightening response to rapid commodity price increases, potentially suppressing overall commodity market space [64][66]