Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar (USD), with a slight decline of 0.13% from the previous close of 0.6553 [1] - Australia's Q2 real spending growth was 0.2%, recovering from a previous value of -0.1%, but still below market expectations of 0.7%, indicating insufficient consumer recovery [1] - Higher-than-expected inflation data in Australia, with the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% year-on-year, has strengthened the AUD's resilience against declines [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is slightly above an upward trend line, suggesting a bullish market sentiment [2] - The AUD/USD is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a gradual increase in short-term price momentum [2] - The AUD/USD may test the monthly high of 0.6568 from August 14, and if this level is broken, it could target the nine-month high of 0.6625 recorded on July 24, reinforcing a bullish structure [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is facing a critical test this week as it has not lowered interest rates as expected, leading to market dissatisfaction. The RBA will release the latest policy meeting minutes, which are highly anticipated by traders and economists [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Decision** - The RBA has maintained the benchmark interest rate despite expectations for a cut due to economic weakness and controlled inflation. The decision is attributed to the need to wait for the second quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [1]. - **Market Reactions** - There is significant market interest in the upcoming meeting minutes, as traders and economists are eager for insights into the RBA's decision-making process [1]. - **Upcoming Events** - RBA Governor Philip Lowe is scheduled to speak on Thursday, where he is expected to face pointed questions from market participants regarding the bank's policies and outlook [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian unemployment rate has risen to 4.3% in June, marking a continuation of weak data over two months, which puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding its decision not to cut interest rates this month [1] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate increase to 4.3% indicates a cooling job market, which may lead the RBA to prepare for potential criticism as the unemployment rate is expected to rise further in the coming months [1] - Despite recent interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation, Australia has managed to maintain a low unemployment rate, which the RBA aims to protect [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman, Philip Lowe, indicated that the bank is prepared to take further action if necessary to address economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The RBA is closely monitoring economic indicators and is ready to adjust monetary policy as needed [1] - Lowe emphasized the importance of being proactive in response to changing economic circumstances [1] - The statement reflects the RBA's commitment to maintaining economic stability and addressing inflation concerns [1]

Core Viewpoint - Westpac Bank analysts expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the upcoming meeting on May 20 [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Monetary Policy Outlook - The short-term outlook for the Reserve Bank of Australia has been data-driven over the past few quarters, making it challenging to predict the committee's decisions [1] - If the revised average inflation rate for Q4 2024 does not unexpectedly decline, the committee is likely to maintain rates during the February 2025 meeting [1] Economic Conditions - Recent global turmoil has altered the situation and reversed the risk profile [1] - Despite disappointing inflation data in Q1, a 25 basis point rate cut in May is considered certain [1] Future Rate Cuts - Following the anticipated cut in May, two additional rate cuts are expected later this year [1] - The risks regarding the timing and magnitude of future cuts have shifted from previously being upward risks to downward risks [1]