Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar (USD), with a slight decline of 0.13% from the previous close of 0.6553 [1] - Australia's Q2 real spending growth was 0.2%, recovering from a previous value of -0.1%, but still below market expectations of 0.7%, indicating insufficient consumer recovery [1] - Higher-than-expected inflation data in Australia, with the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% year-on-year, has strengthened the AUD's resilience against declines [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is slightly above an upward trend line, suggesting a bullish market sentiment [2] - The AUD/USD is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a gradual increase in short-term price momentum [2] - The AUD/USD may test the monthly high of 0.6568 from August 14, and if this level is broken, it could target the nine-month high of 0.6625 recorded on July 24, reinforcing a bullish structure [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is facing a critical test this week as it has not lowered interest rates as expected, leading to market dissatisfaction. The RBA will release the latest policy meeting minutes, which are highly anticipated by traders and economists [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Decision** - The RBA has maintained the benchmark interest rate despite expectations for a cut due to economic weakness and controlled inflation. The decision is attributed to the need to wait for the second quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) data [1]. - **Market Reactions** - There is significant market interest in the upcoming meeting minutes, as traders and economists are eager for insights into the RBA's decision-making process [1]. - **Upcoming Events** - RBA Governor Philip Lowe is scheduled to speak on Thursday, where he is expected to face pointed questions from market participants regarding the bank's policies and outlook [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian unemployment rate has risen to 4.3% in June, marking a continuation of weak data over two months, which puts pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) regarding its decision not to cut interest rates this month [1] Economic Indicators - The unemployment rate increase to 4.3% indicates a cooling job market, which may lead the RBA to prepare for potential criticism as the unemployment rate is expected to rise further in the coming months [1] - Despite recent interest rate hikes aimed at curbing inflation, Australia has managed to maintain a low unemployment rate, which the RBA aims to protect [1]

澳洲联储主席布洛克：如有需要，我们准备采取进一步行动。 ...

金十数据4月24日讯，西太平洋银行分析师表示，目前预计澳洲联储货币政策委员会将在5月20日的会议 上降息25个基点。在过去的几个季度里，澳洲联储的短期前景一直是由数据驱动的。这使得预测货币政 策委员会在即将召开的会议之后会做出什么决定变得很棘手。在看到最新数据之前无法确定。例如，如 果2024年第四季度的修正均值通胀率没有意外地下跌，该委员会很可能会在2025年2月的会议上维持利 率不变。然而，海外的动荡局面已经改变了形势，并且扭转了风险状况。即使第一季度的通胀数据有点 令人失望，你也可以确定5月份会降息25个基点。我们仍然预计在5月份的降息之后，今年还会有两次降 息，但在时间安排和降息幅度方面的风险，已经从之前的上行风险转变为下行风险了。 西太平洋银行：预计澳洲联储将在5月降息25个基点 ...