Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar (USD), with a slight decline of 0.13% from the previous close of 0.6553 [1] - Australia's Q2 real spending growth was 0.2%, recovering from a previous value of -0.1%, but still below market expectations of 0.7%, indicating insufficient consumer recovery [1] - Higher-than-expected inflation data in Australia, with the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% year-on-year, has strengthened the AUD's resilience against declines [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is slightly above an upward trend line, suggesting a bullish market sentiment [2] - The AUD/USD is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a gradual increase in short-term price momentum [2] - The AUD/USD may test the monthly high of 0.6568 from August 14, and if this level is broken, it could target the nine-month high of 0.6625 recorded on July 24, reinforcing a bullish structure [2]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) has risen to around 0.65, with a current quote of 0.6547, up 0.12% from the previous close of 0.6539 [1] - Australia's July Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than June's 1.9% and market expectations of 2.3%, marking the highest level since July 2024 [1] - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate cuts have shifted, with the probability of a rate cut in September decreasing from 30% to 22%, while the probability for November increased to 61% [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD remains within a familiar price range, with the first significant resistance level at 0.6625, the peak from July 24, 2025 [2] - If the price breaks above 0.6625, the next key level to watch is 0.6687, the peak from November 2024, with a psychological target of 0.7000 beyond that [2] - Current support is at 0.6414, and if this level is breached, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6384 will come into focus, followed by the June low of 0.6372 [2]

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on commodities such as copper and gold, anticipating that inflation in the U.S. may enter a sustained upward trajectory, despite limited recession risks in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment Outlook - The U.S. job market is expected to continue a trend of moderate slowdown, with recession risks currently deemed limited. Recent non-farm payroll data for July fell short of expectations, and significant downward revisions for May and June have catalyzed market adjustments regarding economic outlook [1][12]. - The unemployment rate remains stable, and wage growth has exceeded expectations, indicating that the slowdown in the job market may be mild [1][12]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July showed a decline, primarily due to a significant drop in supplier delivery times, while new orders and production indicators showed marginal improvement, suggesting that supply chain normalization rather than a sharp decline in demand may be at play [1][17]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Inflation trends are likely to play a crucial role in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations that U.S. inflation may enter a phase of sustained upward surprises [2][18]. - Recent data indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation has been weaker than anticipated, but as tariff rates become clearer, the pass-through to consumers may accelerate, increasing the likelihood of inflation exceeding expectations [2][18]. Group 3: Commodity and Asset Allocation Strategy - The report reiterates a positive stance on inflation-hedged commodities, including copper, oil, and gold, in light of resilient U.S. economic conditions and potential inflation surprises [3][18]. - The performance of the asset allocation strategy for July yielded a return of 0.6%, with a one-year return of 9.4% and a maximum drawdown of 2.9%, indicating robust overall performance [4][35]. - The macro scoring model indicates a bullish outlook for A-shares, crude oil, and copper, while suggesting caution regarding domestic bonds due to potential tightening liquidity risks [19][21]. Group 4: Specific Asset Insights - The report maintains a neutral view on U.S. equities, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in the negative effects of tariffs, which may become a focal point in future trading [23]. - The gold market faces short-term constraints due to a reduction in U.S. deficits and slowing central bank purchases, but the medium-term outlook remains positive due to anticipated inflationary pressures [24]. - The crude oil outlook is favorable, with the oil sentiment index rising to 0.61, driven by reduced macro risks and increased inflation expectations [29].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened against the US dollar (USD), currently trading around 0.6400, following a significant rise in Australian consumer inflation data that exceeded market expectations [1] - The unexpected increase in inflation has diminished market bets on further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), leading to a reassessment of the AUD's interest rate differential advantage [1] - The current upward momentum of the AUD is supported by a robust domestic economic outlook compared to the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies, as well as a technical breakout that has attracted trend traders [1] Group 2 - A daily closing price for AUD/USD above the resistance zone of 0.6515-0.65156 would confirm a breakout and potentially open the path to 0.6549, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from September to April [2] - Stronger upward momentum could extend to levels of 0.6699 and 0.6758, both of which are within long-term retracement ranges [2] - If the AUD fails to maintain above the 200-day moving average at 0.6461 and the short-term 50.0% retracement level at 0.6428, bearish sentiment may increase, with the previous range high at 0.6380 becoming a key support level [2]