Core Insights - The report highlights the adjustments in China's tariff strategy in response to U.S. non-tariff measures, including export controls on rare earths and threats of increased tariffs by Trump, indicating a growing division in U.S. political circles regarding tariff strategies [2][10] - It discusses the strategic flaws in Trump's tariff approach, emphasizing the need for a more nuanced strategy that includes non-tariff barriers and targeted measures rather than broad high tariffs [3][10] - The report suggests that U.S. policymakers are more focused on strategic and security issues rather than just economic outcomes, indicating a potential shift in how trade agreements with China may be structured [3][10] Summary by Sections Section 1: Adjustments in China's Tariff Strategy - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has increased due to U.S. non-tariff measures since September, including expanded sanctions and new export controls on rare earths [2][10] - China has adopted a more proactive approach compared to the previous tariff phase, utilizing tactical agreements to gain strategic space without compromising core interests [10] - The U.S. political landscape shows bipartisan concern over China's export control measures, indicating a significant shift in strategy [10] Section 2: Flaws in Trump's Tariff Strategy - Trump's historical pattern of releasing strong pre-meeting signals to pressure opponents is noted, with a critique of the economic viability of reciprocal tariffs [3][10] - Recommendations for a refined approach include maintaining conditional tariffs and focusing on targeted export control lists to minimize collateral damage to domestic supply chains [3][10] Section 3: Desired Trade Agreements with China - U.S. policymakers express a preference for smaller, more manageable trade agreements rather than large-scale deals, which may require geopolitical concessions [3][10] - The urgency for Trump to secure a trade agreement is highlighted, as the economic costs of a non-agreement primarily impact the U.S. [3][10] - The report indicates that while formal agreements may not be reached, the ongoing negotiations have already led to some tariff easing effects for China [3][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses three major clues indicating that inflation has exceeded expectations, highlighting the implications for the economy and investment strategies [2] Group 1: Inflation Indicators - The first clue is the unexpected rise in consumer prices, which has shown a significant increase compared to previous forecasts, suggesting a potential shift in monetary policy [2] - The second clue involves the labor market dynamics, where wage growth has outpaced inflation, indicating increased purchasing power for consumers [2] - The third clue relates to supply chain disruptions that continue to affect prices, particularly in essential goods, leading to sustained inflationary pressures [2] Group 2: Economic Implications - The article emphasizes that persistent inflation could lead to tighter monetary policies, which may impact borrowing costs and overall economic growth [2] - It also notes that sectors sensitive to interest rates, such as real estate and consumer discretionary, may face challenges as inflation persists [2] - The potential for inflation to influence consumer behavior is highlighted, with consumers possibly shifting spending patterns in response to rising prices [2]

Market Overview - The credit bond market is expected to experience continued fluctuations in credit spreads during the fourth quarter, with greater potential pressure on long-term bonds [2][10][11] - Short-term recovery of the bond market may still be influenced by the overdrawn performance from earlier in the year, while mid-term shifts in market logic may occur [10][11] Credit Strategy - It is recommended to maintain a shorter duration in credit bonds, with a focus on mid-to-short-term strategies and interest rate arbitrage being favored [3][11] - The liquidity remains ample, making short-term bonds more certain, while the interest rate arbitrage opportunities are relatively high compared to earlier in the year [3][11] Financial Bonds - Attention should be paid to the pricing discovery opportunities in new financial bonds, as the difficulty in trading perpetual bonds is increasing [4][11] - After the new VAT regulations, the pricing of new financial bonds may still be in a discovery phase, with older bonds potentially offering better value [4][11] Credit Bond Market Dynamics - The behavior of institutions is shifting, with public funds facing significant challenges on the liability side, leading to a restructuring of credit bond demand [10][11] - The expansion of credit bond ETFs is being driven by policy, although the pace may slow down in the short term due to the recent introduction of new products [10][11] Inflation Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) improved in September, primarily due to rising commodity prices, particularly copper, which saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1% [15] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also showing upward trends, with core CPI rising to 1.1%, driven by significant increases in gold and platinum jewelry prices [15] Industry Performance - The textile and apparel industry is expected to see a recovery in domestic demand, with retail sales of clothing and textiles reaching 940 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [15] - The cosmetics and beauty industry is projected to maintain strong growth, with retail sales expected to rise significantly in the fourth quarter due to promotional events [17][18] Company-Specific Insights - Xiaogoods City (600415.SH) reported a net profit growth that exceeded expectations, driven by the successful launch of a new global trade center [23] - The company achieved a revenue of 5.348 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, with net profit doubling [23]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.65 against the US dollar (USD), with a slight decline of 0.13% from the previous close of 0.6553 [1] - Australia's Q2 real spending growth was 0.2%, recovering from a previous value of -0.1%, but still below market expectations of 0.7%, indicating insufficient consumer recovery [1] - Higher-than-expected inflation data in Australia, with the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 2.8% year-on-year, has strengthened the AUD's resilience against declines [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is slightly above an upward trend line, suggesting a bullish market sentiment [2] - The AUD/USD is trading above the 9-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating a gradual increase in short-term price momentum [2] - The AUD/USD may test the monthly high of 0.6568 from August 14, and if this level is broken, it could target the nine-month high of 0.6625 recorded on July 24, reinforcing a bullish structure [2]

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) has risen to around 0.65, with a current quote of 0.6547, up 0.12% from the previous close of 0.6539 [1] - Australia's July Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than June's 1.9% and market expectations of 2.3%, marking the highest level since July 2024 [1] - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate cuts have shifted, with the probability of a rate cut in September decreasing from 30% to 22%, while the probability for November increased to 61% [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD remains within a familiar price range, with the first significant resistance level at 0.6625, the peak from July 24, 2025 [2] - If the price breaks above 0.6625, the next key level to watch is 0.6687, the peak from November 2024, with a psychological target of 0.7000 beyond that [2] - Current support is at 0.6414, and if this level is breached, the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6384 will come into focus, followed by the June low of 0.6372 [2]

Core Insights - The report maintains a bullish outlook on commodities such as copper and gold, anticipating that inflation in the U.S. may enter a sustained upward trajectory, despite limited recession risks in the near term [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment Outlook - The U.S. job market is expected to continue a trend of moderate slowdown, with recession risks currently deemed limited. Recent non-farm payroll data for July fell short of expectations, and significant downward revisions for May and June have catalyzed market adjustments regarding economic outlook [1][12]. - The unemployment rate remains stable, and wage growth has exceeded expectations, indicating that the slowdown in the job market may be mild [1][12]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July showed a decline, primarily due to a significant drop in supplier delivery times, while new orders and production indicators showed marginal improvement, suggesting that supply chain normalization rather than a sharp decline in demand may be at play [1][17]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Inflation trends are likely to play a crucial role in the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations that U.S. inflation may enter a phase of sustained upward surprises [2][18]. - Recent data indicates that the transmission of tariffs to inflation has been weaker than anticipated, but as tariff rates become clearer, the pass-through to consumers may accelerate, increasing the likelihood of inflation exceeding expectations [2][18]. Group 3: Commodity and Asset Allocation Strategy - The report reiterates a positive stance on inflation-hedged commodities, including copper, oil, and gold, in light of resilient U.S. economic conditions and potential inflation surprises [3][18]. - The performance of the asset allocation strategy for July yielded a return of 0.6%, with a one-year return of 9.4% and a maximum drawdown of 2.9%, indicating robust overall performance [4][35]. - The macro scoring model indicates a bullish outlook for A-shares, crude oil, and copper, while suggesting caution regarding domestic bonds due to potential tightening liquidity risks [19][21]. Group 4: Specific Asset Insights - The report maintains a neutral view on U.S. equities, suggesting that the market has not fully priced in the negative effects of tariffs, which may become a focal point in future trading [23]. - The gold market faces short-term constraints due to a reduction in U.S. deficits and slowing central bank purchases, but the medium-term outlook remains positive due to anticipated inflationary pressures [24]. - The crude oil outlook is favorable, with the oil sentiment index rising to 0.61, driven by reduced macro risks and increased inflation expectations [29].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has strengthened against the US dollar (USD), currently trading around 0.6400, following a significant rise in Australian consumer inflation data that exceeded market expectations [1] - The unexpected increase in inflation has diminished market bets on further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), leading to a reassessment of the AUD's interest rate differential advantage [1] - The current upward momentum of the AUD is supported by a robust domestic economic outlook compared to the uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies, as well as a technical breakout that has attracted trend traders [1] Group 2 - A daily closing price for AUD/USD above the resistance zone of 0.6515-0.65156 would confirm a breakout and potentially open the path to 0.6549, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement level of the decline from September to April [2] - Stronger upward momentum could extend to levels of 0.6699 and 0.6758, both of which are within long-term retracement ranges [2] - If the AUD fails to maintain above the 200-day moving average at 0.6461 and the short-term 50.0% retracement level at 0.6428, bearish sentiment may increase, with the previous range high at 0.6380 becoming a key support level [2]