激活素受体II(ActRII)

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来凯医药-B(02105.HK):减脂增肌赛道新锐 全球化创新布局
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-02 16:51
Investment Highlights - Company is a global biopharmaceutical technology firm focusing on metabolic and oncology diseases, recognized as a new player in the domestic fat loss and muscle gain sector [1] - The global market for GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) is rapidly expanding, projected to reach USD 14.7 billion in 2024, accounting for 86.6% of the global obesity drug market, with an expected increase to 93.9% by 2034, reaching USD 54.1 billion [1] Product Development - GLP-1RA weight loss may lead to muscle loss, with studies indicating that over 40% of weight lost may come from lean body mass, raising concerns about muscle loss [2] - Targeting ActRII shows potential for fat loss and muscle gain, addressing the clinical need for higher quality weight loss solutions [2] - Company’s LAE102, a monoclonal antibody targeting ActRIIA, is in Phase I clinical trials in China and the US, with preliminary data expected by September 2025 [2] Market Positioning - Company differentiates itself from market expectations by focusing on the potential of ActRII for fat loss and muscle gain, with LAE102 expected to offer advantages in selectivity, administration convenience, and safety [3] - Anticipated catalysts include data readouts from LAE102's multi-dose escalation studies and overseas clinical data [3] Financial Projections - Company forecasts net losses of RMB 289 million and RMB 309 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3] - Based on DCF valuation, the company is rated as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 27.02, indicating a potential upside of 43.7% from the current stock price [3]