Core Viewpoint - Dongfang Securities predicts that the earnings per share of Gree Pharmaceutical-B (01672) will be -0.32, -0.35, and -0.38 HKD for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, and estimates the company's fair market value at 18.366 billion HKD, corresponding to a target price of 18.38 HKD, initiating a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Weight Loss Market Potential - The prevalence of overweight or obesity is rapidly increasing, expected to affect nearly 3 billion people globally by 2030 [2] - Current weight loss drugs, primarily GLP-1 drugs, have low clinical usage rates, poor adherence, and significant weight rebound after discontinuation, indicating a need for improved options [2] - Real-world research suggests that more accessible, safer, and convenient GLP-1 drugs with longer dosing intervals could enhance usage rates and adherence, with oral, ultra-long-acting, and fat-loss-preserving drugs identified as promising directions [2] Group 2: Competitive Advantages of ASC30 - GLP-1 oral small molecules, such as ASC30, have multiple advantages over peptide-based drugs, with Eli Lilly's Orforglipron being the only oral small molecule to successfully complete Phase III clinical trials [3] - ASC30 is in the second tier of global development, showing stronger agonistic activity and higher exposure levels compared to Orfor, with optimal weight loss data and notable safety advantages in U.S. Phase I and II trials [3] - The increasing demand for business development (BD) opportunities in oral small molecules, especially after Orfor's Phase III results fell short of expectations, enhances ASC30's potential [3] Group 3: ASC47 and New Pipeline Developments - ASC47, a unique THRβ agonist, is part of the fat-loss-preserving pipeline, with the fastest progress seen in Eli Lilly's Bimagrumab, which shows improved weight loss effects when combined with semaglutide [4] - ASC47 demonstrated significantly enhanced weight loss effects in Phase I trials when combined with semaglutide, with a lower incidence of gastrointestinal adverse reactions and improved blood lipid profiles [4] - Since October 2025, the company has accelerated the clinical advancement of four new pipelines, including oral multi-target peptides and monthly subcutaneous injections, aiming to complete mainstream targets and report preliminary clinical data by the end of 2026 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongfang Securities predicts that the earnings per share for Gree Pharmaceutical-B (01672) will be -0.32, -0.35, and -0.38 HKD for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, and estimates the company's fair market value at 18.366 billion HKD, leading to a target price of 18.38 HKD, with an initial "Buy" rating assigned [1] Group 1: Weight Loss Market Potential - The prevalence of overweight and obesity is rapidly increasing, expected to affect nearly 3 billion people globally by 2030 [1] - Current weight loss drugs, primarily GLP-1 medications, have low clinical usage rates, poor adherence, and significant weight rebound after discontinuation [1] - Real-world research indicates that more accessible, safer, and more convenient GLP-1 drugs with longer dosing intervals could enhance usage rates and adherence, with oral, ultra-long-acting, and fat-loss-preserving medications identified as promising directions [1] Group 2: Competitive Advantages of ASC30 - The oral small molecule GLP-1, Orforglipron (Orfor) from Eli Lilly, is currently the only oral small molecule to have successfully completed Phase III clinical trials [2] - ASC30, developed by the company, is in the second tier of global development and shows stronger agonistic activity and higher exposure levels compared to Orfor, with superior weight loss data and safety in U.S. Phase I and II trials [2] - The increasing demand for business development (BD) opportunities in oral small molecules is noted, especially after Orfor's Phase III results fell short of expectations, enhancing ASC30's potential [2] Group 3: ASC47 for Fat Loss and Muscle Preservation - The pipeline for fat loss and muscle preservation includes Bimagrumab (Bima) from Eli Lilly, which shows the fastest progress, while ASC47 is the only THRβ agonist [3] - Phase II clinical results indicate that Bima combined with semaglutide (Semag) improves weight loss outcomes but has safety concerns such as muscle cramps [3] - ASC47 has demonstrated significantly improved weight loss effects when combined with Semag in Phase I trials, with a lower incidence of gastrointestinal adverse reactions and improved blood lipid profiles, positioning it as a safer fat loss and muscle preservation drug [3]

2025年，中美生物制药产业的发展似乎有些"时差"。 今年前三季度，尤其上半年，中国生物制药板块在BD热潮的催化下迅速修复估值，IPO窗口也随之打开，生物医药企业赴港上市的热潮延续至今。 Atlas Venture合伙人Bruce Booth将中国生物医药板块热度高涨列为今年最值得关注的现象之一。他指出，不论是港交所还是生物医药板块，都呈现出流动 性充沛、市场情绪乐观的态势。 相较于此，美股生物制药板块受制于宏观环境波动，走势和估值水平一度陷入低迷。直到第四季度，得益于宏观风险消散、投资者"避险"AI热潮，以及制 药企业的强劲盈利表现，板块整体才有所回弹。 中国创新药走出"独立行情"的2025年，Bruce Booth看到，在目前对于全球生物制药行业至关重要的几个问题中，中国当居其首，临床试验数量、BD交易 等方面大放异彩的背后，其实是人才、成本效益和监管改革的协同优势形成了发展机会；西方药企需要迎难而上，做出更快、更便宜、更好的创新。 以下为他的2025年度回顾及2026年展望全文： 但有几个问题的确有其正当性。药品定价就是其中之一。我们必须改革全球药品定价体系。过去四十年，美国一直比其它富裕发达国家支付更 ...

INLIGHT临床试验是一项随机、安慰剂对照（试验组与安慰剂组比例为3:1）的1期研究，入组人群为超重或肥胖但无其他基础疾病的受试者， 其BMI范围在28至35千克/平方米之间， 糖化血红蛋白 （HbA1c）水平低于5.9%。该研究未对受试者施加任何饮食或运动干预。截至数据截止 日，INLIGHT临床试验已入组超100名受试者。本次公布的数据来自32名接受单次皮下注射240毫克WVE-007的受试者队列，其基线平均BMI约 为32千克/平方米，随访周期为三个月。所有公布结果均依据预设的统计分析方案得出。 在减肥药赛道，"减脂不减肌"一直是各大药企追求的"圣杯"。如今，一家名为 Wave Life Sciences 的生物技术公司似乎摸到了这个圣杯的边缘。 周一（12月8日），Wave 宣布其靶向 RNA 的肥胖疗法 WVE-007 在首个人体研究中取得了令人振奋的数据： 该药物不仅能显著减少患者的脂肪，还能 增加肌肉质量 ，受此消息影响， Wave Life Sciences 盘前暴涨超70%！ 核心提要： 美国马萨诸塞州剑桥市，2025年12月8日（环球通讯社）—— 波生命科学有限公司（纳斯达克股票代码：W ...

Core Insights - The weight loss sector is emerging as a significant variable impacting the global pharmaceutical landscape in the coming years, with major pharmaceutical companies prioritizing research and development in this area [1] - Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera for $7.3 billion highlights the active mergers and business development (BD) transactions in the weight loss drug pipeline [1] - Chinese innovative pharmaceutical companies have also seen substantial deals, with multiple agreements exceeding $100 million for weight loss drug pipelines from major multinational firms [1] Group 1: Clinical Data and Safety - LAE102, an ActRII monoclonal antibody from Chinese biotech company LaiKai Pharma, has shown promising results in a Phase I clinical trial, indicating a trend of muscle gain and fat loss [2][3] - In the trial, participants receiving a 6mg/kg dose of LAE102 experienced an average lean body mass increase of 1.7% and a fat mass reduction of 2.2% by week 5, with adjusted averages showing a 4.6% increase in lean body mass and a 3.6% reduction in fat mass compared to the placebo group [3] - The safety profile of LAE102 is notable, with no severe adverse events reported during the trial, and most adverse events being mild [4][5] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - LAE102's safety results align with previous assessments, indicating no new safety signals, which is crucial given the safety concerns surrounding other ActRII-targeting drugs like Bimagrumab [5][10] - Bimagrumab has shown significant weight loss results but has been associated with adverse reactions such as diarrhea and muscle cramps, contrasting sharply with LAE102's safety profile [10] - The potential for LAE102 to become a "best in class" drug in the ActRII-targeting category is highlighted by its superior safety and efficacy compared to Bimagrumab [10][19] Group 3: Business Development Potential - LaiKai Pharma's recent clinical trial data significantly increases the likelihood of business development opportunities for LAE102, especially with interest from major companies like Eli Lilly [11][12] - Eli Lilly has already engaged in a clinical trial collaboration with LaiKai Pharma, indicating strong interest in LAE102 [12] - The expiration of Bimagrumab's patent in 2030 presents a strategic opportunity for LaiKai Pharma, as LAE102's patent extends to 2042, providing a longer commercial window [18][19] Group 4: Financial Position and Future Prospects - LaiKai Pharma recently completed a Hong Kong stock placement, raising approximately HKD 578 million, with a significant portion allocated to research and development [23] - The company now has over HKD 1.2 billion in cash, enhancing its ability to fund R&D and negotiate from a position of strength in potential partnerships [25] - LaiKai Pharma is actively seeking partnerships with firms that have strong commitments and financial capabilities to expedite the clinical development and commercialization of LAE102 [25][26]

Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Company has halted an experimental study of Bimagrumab, a drug aimed at preventing muscle loss in obesity patients, due to undisclosed strategic business reasons [1][2][3] - The trial was closed on June 10, less than a month after initiation, while a similar study in non-diabetic obese patients remains active [3] - Eli Lilly's Zepbound, which contains Tirzepatide, is part of the company's obesity treatment portfolio [2][3] - In 2023, Eli Lilly acquired Versanis for nearly $2 billion, gaining access to Bimagrumab, which targets fat cells without causing lean mass loss [4] Company Developments - The company routinely evaluates its clinical development programs to optimize product potential [3] - Several drugmakers are developing therapies in combination with Eli Lilly's Zepbound or Novo Nordisk's Wegovy [3] Market Position - Eli Lilly is recognized as one of the 10 best money-making stocks to invest in [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that CICC has initiated coverage on Lai Kai Pharmaceutical-B (02105) with an "outperform" rating and a target price of HKD 27.02, indicating a potential upside of 43.7% from the current stock price, based on DCF valuation [1] - Lai Kai is a global biopharmaceutical company focusing on metabolic and oncology diseases, recognized as a rising player in the domestic fat loss and muscle gain sector [1] - The market perceives Eli Lilly's Bimagrumab data as strong, revealing the drug's potential for fat loss and muscle gain through targeting the ActRII receptor, which aligns with the clinical demand for higher quality weight loss solutions [2][3] Group 2 - The global market for GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) is rapidly expanding, projected to reach USD 14.7 billion in 2024, accounting for 86.6% of the global obesity drug market, with an expected increase to 93.9% by 2034, reaching USD 54.1 billion [2] - There are concerns regarding muscle loss associated with GLP-1RA weight loss drugs, as studies indicate that over 40% of the weight lost may come from lean body mass, highlighting the need for therapies that promote fat loss while preserving muscle [2] - LAE102, a monoclonal antibody developed by Lai Kai targeting ActRIIA, shows promise in promoting muscle regeneration and reducing fat, with ongoing Phase I clinical trials in China and the US [3]

Group 1: Company Overview - Company is a global biopharmaceutical technology firm focusing on metabolic and oncology diseases, recognized as a rising player in the domestic fat reduction and muscle gain sector [1] - Company’s LAE102 is a monoclonal antibody targeting ActRIIA, showing potential for muscle regeneration and fat reduction, with ongoing Phase I clinical studies in China and the US [4] Group 2: Market Insights - The global market for GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) is rapidly expanding, projected to reach $14.7 billion in 2024, accounting for 86.6% of the global obesity and overweight drug market, with an expected increase to 93.9% by 2034, reaching $54.1 billion [2] - Concerns regarding muscle loss associated with GLP-1RA weight loss drugs have emerged, highlighting the clinical need for targeted solutions like ActRII to achieve quality weight loss [3] Group 3: Clinical Development and Potential Catalysts - LAE102's multi-dose escalation study data is anticipated to be released, with overseas clinical data also expected to provide significant insights [4] - Company has signed an agreement with Eli Lilly to advance clinical trials for obesity in the US, with preliminary data from multi-dose escalation trials expected by September 2025 [4]

Investment Highlights - Company is a global biopharmaceutical technology firm focusing on metabolic and oncology diseases, recognized as a new player in the domestic fat loss and muscle gain sector [1] - The global market for GLP-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) is rapidly expanding, projected to reach USD 14.7 billion in 2024, accounting for 86.6% of the global obesity drug market, with an expected increase to 93.9% by 2034, reaching USD 54.1 billion [1] Product Development - GLP-1RA weight loss may lead to muscle loss, with studies indicating that over 40% of weight lost may come from lean body mass, raising concerns about muscle loss [2] - Targeting ActRII shows potential for fat loss and muscle gain, addressing the clinical need for higher quality weight loss solutions [2] - Company’s LAE102, a monoclonal antibody targeting ActRIIA, is in Phase I clinical trials in China and the US, with preliminary data expected by September 2025 [2] Market Positioning - Company differentiates itself from market expectations by focusing on the potential of ActRII for fat loss and muscle gain, with LAE102 expected to offer advantages in selectivity, administration convenience, and safety [3] - Anticipated catalysts include data readouts from LAE102's multi-dose escalation studies and overseas clinical data [3] Financial Projections - Company forecasts net losses of RMB 289 million and RMB 309 million for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3] - Based on DCF valuation, the company is rated as outperforming the industry with a target price of HKD 27.02, indicating a potential upside of 43.7% from the current stock price [3]

Core Viewpoint - The combination of Bimagrumab and Semaglutide shows significant efficacy in weight management, with an average weight loss of 22.1% over 48 weeks, primarily from fat reduction, indicating a comprehensive strategy for obesity treatment [2][4]. Group 1: Clinical Trial Results - In a 48-week trial, participants receiving the combination treatment lost an average of 22.1% of their body weight, with 92.8% of this loss attributed to fat reduction, compared to a 15.7% weight loss with Semaglutide alone, where 71.8% was fat loss [2]. - The combination therapy not only resulted in greater weight loss but also preserved more lean body mass, which is particularly important for populations at risk of sarcopenia [4]. Group 2: Significance of the Research - The study addresses a major public health issue, as obesity is linked to various complications such as diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers, and the combination therapy may improve the quality of life for many patients [4]. - Bimagrumab's development is part of Eli Lilly's ongoing innovation strategy in obesity treatment, focusing on the often-overlooked issue of muscle preservation during weight loss [4]. Group 3: Future Directions - Eli Lilly is also advancing clinical trials for Bimagrumab in combination with Zepbound, a dual-target GLP-1/GIP agonist, expanding treatment options for patients and healthcare providers [5]. - The acquisition of Versanis Bio for approximately $2 billion highlights the company's commitment to exploring new avenues in weight management, particularly targeting ActRII [6]. Group 4: Mechanism of Action - Bimagrumab targets the activin receptor type II (ActRII), which plays a crucial role in muscle growth regulation, and its inhibition may provide a more effective approach to preserving muscle mass during weight loss [12][13]. - The signaling pathway involving ActRII has implications for muscle diseases, and targeting this receptor could lead to advancements in treating conditions like sarcopenia and cachexia [9][13].