引言：美国2025年《国家安全战略》报告与具有"历史延续性"的霸权幻象 【文/观察者网专栏作者 鲍韶山，翻译/马力，校对/观察者网 郭涵】 当白宫发布2025年《国家安全战略》报告（NSS，下文简称"报告"）时，写作者盛赞这是一份人们期待 已久的、具有"历史延续性"的战略纲领，认为该报告是自冷战结束以来，首份真正将美国国家安全战略 与具体落实手段进行系统性整合的文件。 报告认为，经过数十年的过度扩张，在战略层面一向过于自负的美国必须修正其全球战略：不应继续追 求在全球所有地区维持永久性主导地位的幻想，而应构建一个符合现实的、模块化的体系，在维护自身 主导地位的同时，应该将风险、成本和负担分配给合作伙伴、盟友及仆从国。 该报告试图以可控、可负担且政治上可持续的方式维持美国的全球主导地位，这一核心诉求使得报告成 为一个衰落中的霸权国家的范式性战略文件，旨在确保维持其霸权结构而不必过度透支自身实力。 然而，这种战略调整建立在脆弱的基础之上。对于今日的美国来说，战略雄心与国家实力、话语霸权与 物质现实、口头承诺与实际产出之间的矛盾正日益凸显。因此，纸面上看似符合"历史延续性"的战略， 在实际执行过程中可能被证明是十分 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent security incidents in Europe, including drone incursions and cyberattacks, indicate a rising threat from Russia, which is engaging in "gray warfare" to undermine NATO and European security [1][2][4] Group 1: Security Incidents - Multiple countries in Europe have experienced security breaches, such as drones flying over Poland and MiG jets entering Estonian airspace, leading to increased tensions in the region [1] - Cyberattacks and disruptions at airports have further complicated the security landscape, highlighting vulnerabilities in European infrastructure [1][5] Group 2: Russian Strategy - Russia's strategy aims to weaken NATO's internal unity by sowing distrust among European nations regarding U.S. security commitments [2] - The "gray warfare" tactics are designed to raise the cost of support for Ukraine among European nations, particularly targeting those most supportive of Ukraine [3][4] Group 3: NATO's Response - Experts suggest that NATO and European allies must reveal the truth behind "gray warfare" and respond decisively to provocations to maintain deterrence [4][5] - Enhancing resilience in critical infrastructure and establishing rapid response teams for cyber threats are essential steps for Europe [5] Group 4: Political Implications - The actions of Russia are seen as attempts to exploit divisions within Western democracies, potentially bolstering populist and nationalist movements [4] - The fluctuating stance of U.S. leadership, particularly under President Trump, complicates the situation and raises concerns about NATO's cohesion [6]