1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel market is oscillating with unclear unilateral direction. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading, and the positions for phased basis buying hedging can be rolled for profit - taking [3]. - The sentiment for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has improved, but there are still concerns in the fundamentals. Industrial customers are advised to focus on spot - futures positive arbitrage [3]. - The coking coal spot is strong. It is suggested that the long - side open positions be gradually liquidated before the holiday, and sell - hedging should be carried out when the price rises again [3]. - There are still supports for iron ore before the holiday. A long - at - low strategy is recommended [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2605 closed at 3227.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.22%); HC2605 at 3365.00 yuan/ton, up 7.00 yuan (0.21%); I2605 at 783.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan (0.26%); J2605 at 1871.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan (1.30%); JM2605 at 1312.00 yuan/ton, up 11.00 yuan (0.85%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts (September 24th)**: RB2601 closed at 3164.00 yuan/ton, up 1.00 yuan (0.03%); HC2601 at 3357.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan (0.24%); I2601 at 803.50 yuan/ton, unchanged; J2601 at 1730.00 yuan/ton, up 19.50 yuan (1.14%); JM2601 at 1224.50 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan (1.24%) [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios (September 24th)**: The spread between RB2601 and RB2605 was - 63.00 yuan/ton; the spread between HC2601 and HC2605 was - 8.00 yuan/ton; the spread between I2601 and I2605 was 20.50 yuan/ton; the spread between J2601 and J2605 was - 141.00 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2601 and JM2605 was - 87.50 yuan/ton. The coil - to - rebar spread was 193.00 yuan/ton, the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.94, the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.41, the rebar futures profit was - 84.53 yuan/ton, and the coking futures profit was 101.42 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel Products (September 24th)**: Shanghai rebar was 3290.00 yuan/ton, up 12.40 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3330.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 3030.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Platts Index was 106.50, up 0.30. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3420.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3430.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3390.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the billet - to - product spread was 260.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan [1]. - **Other Products (September 24th)**: The price of Super Special Powder was 710.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of mixed powder at Qingdao Port was 745.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan; the price of coking coal at Ganqimaodu was 1285.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 792.00 yuan/ton, down 5.00 yuan [1]. - **Basis (September 24th)**: The basis of HC was 63.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan; the basis of RB was 126.00 yuan/ton, up 31.00 yuan; the basis of I was 26.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of J was - 157.37 yuan/ton, down 12.50 yuan; the basis of JM was 90.50 yuan/ton, up 48.00 yuan [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis - **Steel**: The futures price was stable on Wednesday, and the spot price slightly stabilized. The trading volume increased moderately compared with Tuesday. The data from Steel Valley Network showed that both supply and demand increased, but the inventory did not decline significantly, indicating that the peak - season demand was not strong. The macro - level US interest rate cut is beneficial to liquidity and risk appetite in the medium - term, but there is no obvious expected trading in the short - term. The peak - season demand for steel is not strong, and the improvement in the apparent demand for building materials is not significant, which cannot drive a strong rebound. The cost support exists due to high pig iron production and pre - National Day furnace charge replenishment, but the high production of building materials increases potential concerns in the long - term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly. The anti - involution policy leads to tidal - style trading, and the trading style of the black - metal sector changes quickly. The two silicon alloys follow the market. The industry has turned from large losses to profits, and the supply continues to increase. With the arrival of the peak season, the terminal demand needs to be verified, and the risk of a decline in pig iron and electric - arc furnace operations is accumulating, which may impact the demand for the two alloys. The inventory is gradually accumulating, and the overall inventory level is still high [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot trading of coke at ports is weak, but the coking coal auction has good results due to pre - holiday replenishment, and most prices have risen. The futures market oscillates. From a macro perspective, there are signs of "all good news being priced in". From an industrial perspective, the supply - demand of steel has improved marginally before the holiday, and the cost support is effective. However, considering the lack of obvious improvement in terminal demand, the upward drive from the industry is limited. It is recommended to gradually liquidate long - side positions before the holiday and sell - hedge when the price rises [3]. - **Iron Ore**: After the iron ore meeting last week, there were many market rumors. The pig iron production has slightly increased to 240.02 million tons (+0.47). The profitability of steel mills has declined by 1.3% to 58.87%. The steel mills' replenishment for the National Day holiday is almost over. The transfer of iron ore inventory from ports to mills in the next week will support the price. The apparent demand for steel has slightly increased, mainly from rebar, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil has slightly declined. The steel mills have reduced rebar production, and the inventory has changed from accumulation to slight depletion. There is still support for iron ore before the National Day holiday, but the upside depends on the steel demand [3].