Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, down from 4.25%-4.50%[5] - This marks a total reduction of 50 basis points (BP) in September 2024, followed by two reductions of 25 BP each in November and December 2024[5] - The Fed is expected to continue easing, with two more rate cuts anticipated in October and December 2025, bringing the median forecast for the federal funds rate down to 3.6%[5] Economic Forecasts - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, up from 1.4%[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while the 2026 forecast has been slightly adjusted down to 4.4%[6] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 is maintained at 3%, with core PCE at 3.1%[6] Internal Disagreements - There are notable divisions within the Fed, with varying opinions on the extent of rate cuts, including one member advocating for a 50 BP cut[6] - Recent personnel changes have intensified these divisions, with new appointments and court rulings affecting the Fed's internal dynamics[6] Inflation and Employment Concerns - The Fed acknowledges rising inflation, with current rates around 2.9%, and highlights the potential impact of tariffs contributing 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to inflation[6] - Employment growth is slowing, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3% in August 2025, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and global economic fluctuations[6]

Insight Investment全球利率联席主管Harley Bradley在一份报告中表示，对于那些通过全球多元化固定收 益投资组合投资于美国债券的人来说，降息环境可能是个好消息。尽管关税仍可能导致更高的通胀，但 美联储将于周三降息。鉴于美国相对顽固的通胀，市场将密切关注美联储对9月份以后未来降息的最 新"点阵图"预测。在我们看来，尽管通胀可能使结果复杂化，但相信美联储将准备好"忽略"高于目标的 通胀，以保护劳动力市场。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that decisions cannot be made based solely on the June projections (dot plot) six weeks later [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's decision-making process is dynamic and cannot rely on past forecasts [1] - Powell emphasized the importance of current economic conditions over previous predictions [1] - The statement indicates potential shifts in monetary policy based on evolving economic data [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that decisions cannot be made based solely on the June forecasts (dot plot) in six weeks [1] Group 1 - Powell emphasized the need for updated information before making future decisions [1] - The statement indicates potential uncertainty in monetary policy direction [1]