美联储永远不会破产，美联储实施无限量QE和大量购买债券，只是一种负债表的扩张，实际上并不需 要真正的拿钱购买。 美国债券市场为全球资产之锚，体量巨大，如果不稳定下来，流动性问题解决不了，将带来严重问题， 更别说股市会反弹了。 美联储市场操作并不需要现金支付，只不过是一种负债表的操作，买进债券，在负债端记上一笔就可以 了，买的多记得多就可以，负债表理论上是可以无限制扩张的，用我们常见的说法就是印钞，但现在不 同于历史上的现金交易，而是一种电子交易，美联储已经不需要印刷美元现钞纸币了，仅仅在美联储负 债端记录就可以了。，20年3月份，美联储资产负债表已经由3.8万亿美元扩张至4.36万亿美元。 在3.23之前，美国债券市场出现了很大的问题，垃圾债和投资级债券暴跌，投资级债券之前被认为风险 极低，现在被大量赎回，基金经理按照章程必须平仓。 这类似于我们2015年A股崩盘的效果，没有流动性，央行为证金公司提供无限流动性，最终接下所有卖 出盘，企稳市场。 美联储无限量放水,无限量的印钞，增加美元的全球流动性，让世界来分摊危机，对特朗普来说一天到 晚看着美股，而对美联储来说，股市相对不重要，重要的是信用市场，也就是债券市 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. market continues to attract global capital despite external challenges, with foreign investors net buying U.S. securities reaching a historic high of $311.1 billion in May 2025, significantly up from $14.2 billion in April [1][5][15] - Over the past 12 months, net foreign capital inflow approached $1.76 trillion, nearing the peak of $1.4 trillion observed in July 2023, indicating a strong reliance on U.S. markets [3][11][15] - The resilience of foreign investors mirrors that of U.S. consumers, showcasing a robust confidence in the U.S. economy despite trade tensions and market volatility [3][11][17] Foreign Investment Trends - In 2024, foreign direct investment in the U.S. increased by $332.1 billion, bringing the total stock to $5.71 trillion, primarily driven by the manufacturing and financial sectors [5][15] - Despite tariff policies causing initial market disruptions, net capital inflow remained strong, with foreign holdings of U.S. securities rebounding to $26.9 trillion by 2024, an increase of $2 trillion from June 2023 [5][11] - By June 2024, foreign holdings of U.S. securities reached $31.288 trillion, with equities accounting for $16.988 trillion, indicating continued confidence in U.S. assets [5][11] Market Resilience and Investor Behavior - The U.S. market's depth and liquidity make it an attractive destination for global investors, who are willing to endure volatility in exchange for stable returns [5][11][15] - Analysts suggest that the high threshold for capital flight from the U.S. indicates a strong foundational economy, with data showing that even amidst tariff threats, investors have not significantly divested from U.S. stocks and bonds [3][11][15] - The overall market resilience is reflected in the quick recovery of indices following initial declines due to tariff announcements, reinforcing the notion that the U.S. remains a safe haven for investment [11][13][15] Expert Opinions - Experts like Robin Brooks argue that predictions of the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative are premature, as evidenced by the strong capital inflow data [3][11][17] - Concerns about brand damage due to trade wars have not deterred capital from flowing into the U.S., with many analysts affirming the enduring appeal of U.S. assets [7][11][17] - The consensus among experts is that the U.S. continues to provide a stable investment environment that is unmatched by other markets, solidifying its position as a primary destination for global capital [11][17]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a divergence in asset pricing, particularly between gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, driven by differing expectations regarding inflation and economic policy responses [1][2][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged by 51% over the past 12 months, surpassing $4000, while the U.S. dollar has depreciated by over 10% against a basket of major currencies [4][5]. - The concept of "devaluation trade" has gained traction, where investors bet on government-induced inflation to alleviate rising debt burdens, leading to increased demand for hard assets like gold and stocks [5][6]. - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 96% in 2020 to 98% in 2023, raising concerns about future inflation as a means to manage debt [5]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. bond market remain stable, with key indicators like the five-year, five-year forward breakeven inflation rate close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target [7][8]. - This stability suggests that bond investors do not foresee runaway inflation, contrasting sharply with the bullish sentiment in the gold market [6][8]. Group 3: Divergence in Economic Signals - The market is currently divided on which economic signals will dominate Federal Reserve decisions—whether to cut rates in response to potential recession or tighten policies to combat inflation [2][10]. - The stock market's rise is attributed more to optimism surrounding AI technology and its potential to drive strong growth with moderate inflation, rather than solely as a hedge against inflation [9]. - The conflicting macroeconomic data, with signs of a slowing job market and strong growth, creates uncertainty about the Fed's future actions [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that a rate cut environment may be beneficial for investors in U.S. bonds through globally diversified fixed income portfolios, despite potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates on Wednesday, which could positively impact fixed income investments [1] - **Inflation Considerations** - Tariffs may lead to higher inflation, but the Fed is likely to focus on protecting the labor market by potentially overlooking inflation rates above their target [1] - **Market Reactions** - The market will closely monitor the Fed's updated "dot plot" projections for future rate cuts beyond September, given the persistent inflation in the U.S. [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve meeting may act as a catalyst for a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, especially given its recent consolidation since early July [1] - Concerns arise that the meeting could trigger a "news sell-off" due to heightened market bubbles, potentially limiting upside and exacerbating downside trading [1] - The US 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has achieved its highest percentile return since April 8, indicating a fatigue in current stock and fixed income levels [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The US stock market is rising, led by technology stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing its best single-day gain in nearly two years [2] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.4%, with consumer goods and banking stocks performing well, while healthcare stocks lagged [2] Group 3: Bond Market Trends - US bond yields have decreased ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [3] - European sovereign bond yields also fell, with strong demand for corporate bonds [4] - Investment-grade corporate bonds are at their highest level of technical overbought conditions since early 2020 [5] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar is declining, with Deutsche Bank noting that overseas investors are significantly reducing their dollar exposure while purchasing US stocks and bonds [6] - Gold prices are reaching new historical highs as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates [6] - Oil prices continue to rise as traders consider further sanctions on Russian oil in response to anticipated oversupply later this year [6]

Group 1 - Japanese investors sold foreign stocks for the third consecutive month, withdrawing approximately 536.4 billion JPY (about 3.64 billion USD) in July, following a 1.99 trillion JPY sale in June due to high valuations after a significant stock market rise [1] - In contrast, Japanese investors purchased foreign bonds worth 3.63 trillion JPY in July, marking the third month of net buying, driven by a depreciation of the yen that increased yields [1] - The yen depreciated by about 4.5% against the dollar in July, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2024 [1] Group 2 - Japanese trust accounts (pension funds) also net sold foreign stocks for the third month, with a net sale of 1.52 trillion JPY in foreign equities and a net purchase of 419.6 billion JPY in long-term bonds [4] - The Bank of Japan, investment trust management companies, and insurance companies had net inflows into foreign stocks of 445.5 billion JPY, 333.5 billion JPY, and 207.1 billion JPY respectively in July [4] - The overseas bond market received 3.82 trillion JPY in Japanese long-term bond investments, while short-term notes saw a net withdrawal of 196.6 billion JPY [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. anticipates that bond issuance will remain stable for at least the next few quarters [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Bond Market Outlook** - The U.S. expects a stable bond issuance environment in the upcoming quarters [1]

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading below $36.30, with a recent opening at $36.72 per ounce and a current price of $36.43, reflecting a decrease of 0.83% [1] - The highest price reached today was $36.81 per ounce, while the lowest was $36.29 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend in the silver market [1] - Recent data shows that Japan's Q1 actual GDP annualized contraction rate has narrowed to 0.2%, significantly improving from the initial value of -0.7%, which exceeded market expectations [2] Group 2 - The Japanese government is considering measures to strengthen fiscal credibility in response to rising government debt financing costs as interest rates increase [2] - Japan's government plans to initiate low-yield bond repurchase operations to alleviate pressure from soaring long-term bond yields, aligning with previous policies to reduce long-term bond supply [2] - Japanese investors significantly reduced their holdings in German bonds by 1.48 trillion yen in April, the highest since 2014, and also recorded the largest monthly sell-off of U.S. bonds in nearly six months, amounting to 1.07 trillion yen [2] Group 3 - The international silver price recently surged, breaking through $36.69 per ounce, marking a new high since 2012, with an intraday increase of 2.00% [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.00-$37.50 per ounce, with potential further challenges towards the $40 mark, while short-term support is noted at $35.50-$36.00 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - Foreign investors have cumulatively bought approximately $350 billion in U.S. stocks and $200 billion in U.S. bonds since 2020, indicating a clear divergence in attitudes towards U.S. capital markets [1][3] - In 2025, foreign investment in U.S. stocks reached an annualized inflow of $138 billion, marking the second-largest annual inflow on record, driven by the strong performance of the U.S. consumer market and the leading position of tech giants in AI [1][3] - In contrast, foreign interest in U.S. bonds has significantly decreased, with inflows dropping from around $100 billion annually to nearly zero growth, primarily due to concerns over persistent inflation and high interest rates [1][7] Group 2 - The sustained appeal of U.S. stocks for foreign investors is expected to continue as long as the U.S. economy maintains relative strength and does not enter a deep recession [7] - A recovery in demand for U.S. bonds may require clear signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts and effective control of inflation [7] - The choice between stocks and bonds for foreign investors will remain a key indicator of the attractiveness of the U.S. market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current crisis in the U.S. bond market is driven by foreign investors' reluctance to finance the U.S. fiscal and current account deficits at current price levels, which can only be addressed by Congress through fiscal tightening, not by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy intervention [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market and Foreign Investment - Deutsche Bank reports a failed auction of U.S. bonds and a weakening dollar, indicating that foreign investors are "boycotting" U.S. assets [1]. - The bank warns of increased volatility in the market as foreign investors are unwilling to finance U.S. deficits at current levels [1][4]. - The behavior of Asian investors is highlighted as a key indicator for the resilience of U.S. stocks, with a focus on their reactions during Asian trading hours [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Resilience - Deutsche Bank suggests that the resilience of the U.S. stock market will be tested, as the current environment makes it difficult for stocks to maintain strength [3]. - The increase in U.S. yields and stock prices during 2023-2024 was based on a reassessment of growth expectations, which is now overshadowed by rising fiscal risk premiums [3]. Group 3: Solutions to the Crisis - The bank emphasizes that only Congress can resolve the fiscal issues, with two potential solutions: implementing stricter fiscal policies or allowing the non-dollar value of U.S. debt to decrease significantly to attract foreign investors [4]. - Financial repression measures, such as shortening the duration of U.S. debt, have been discussed but come with risks of increased debt rollover [4].