尽管黄金价格飙升至4000美元，美元汇率下跌，股票创下新高，市场中关于"货币贬值交易"的讨论甚嚣尘上，但本应对通胀风 险最为敏感的美国债券市场却异常冷静，其核心的长期通胀预期指标依然稳定地锚定在美联储2%的目标附近。 "贬值交易"狂热，黄金狂飙 过去12个月内，黄金价格飙升51%，突破4000美元大关。同期，美元对一篮子主要货币的汇率则下跌超过10%。与此同时，作 为能够对冲通胀风险的资产，股票市场也屡创新高。 所谓"贬值交易"，其核心逻辑在于，投资者押注政府将通过制造通货膨胀，来"稀释"其日益庞大的债务负担。在这一预期下， 能够对冲通胀风险的股票和黄金等硬资产自然受到追捧。 分析认为，当前，黄金与美债正在讲述两个截然相反的宏大故事。黄金的逻辑是对未来货币信用的"不信任投票"：它押注美国 庞大的债务最终只能通过通胀来稀释；而美债的逻辑恰恰相反，它代表了对政策信誉的"信任票"：其稳定的长期通胀预期显 示，市场相信美联储将成功捍卫其通胀目标，或经济放缓将自然抑制物价。 从数据上看，当前美国宏观数据也充满矛盾：就业放缓为美联储的"预防性降息"提供了依据，而强劲的增长与通胀抬头迹象， 又让另一些人担心降息会为未来的通 ...

Insight Investment全球利率联席主管Harley Bradley在一份报告中表示，对于那些通过全球多元化固定收 益投资组合投资于美国债券的人来说，降息环境可能是个好消息。尽管关税仍可能导致更高的通胀，但 美联储将于周三降息。鉴于美国相对顽固的通胀，市场将密切关注美联储对9月份以后未来降息的最 新"点阵图"预测。在我们看来，尽管通胀可能使结果复杂化，但相信美联储将准备好"忽略"高于目标的 通胀，以保护劳动力市场。 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve meeting may act as a catalyst for a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, especially given its recent consolidation since early July [1] - Concerns arise that the meeting could trigger a "news sell-off" due to heightened market bubbles, potentially limiting upside and exacerbating downside trading [1] - The US 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has achieved its highest percentile return since April 8, indicating a fatigue in current stock and fixed income levels [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The US stock market is rising, led by technology stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing its best single-day gain in nearly two years [2] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.4%, with consumer goods and banking stocks performing well, while healthcare stocks lagged [2] Group 3: Bond Market Trends - US bond yields have decreased ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [3] - European sovereign bond yields also fell, with strong demand for corporate bonds [4] - Investment-grade corporate bonds are at their highest level of technical overbought conditions since early 2020 [5] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar is declining, with Deutsche Bank noting that overseas investors are significantly reducing their dollar exposure while purchasing US stocks and bonds [6] - Gold prices are reaching new historical highs as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates [6] - Oil prices continue to rise as traders consider further sanctions on Russian oil in response to anticipated oversupply later this year [6]

Group 1 - Japanese investors sold foreign stocks for the third consecutive month, withdrawing approximately 536.4 billion JPY (about 3.64 billion USD) in July, following a 1.99 trillion JPY sale in June due to high valuations after a significant stock market rise [1] - In contrast, Japanese investors purchased foreign bonds worth 3.63 trillion JPY in July, marking the third month of net buying, driven by a depreciation of the yen that increased yields [1] - The yen depreciated by about 4.5% against the dollar in July, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2024 [1] Group 2 - Japanese trust accounts (pension funds) also net sold foreign stocks for the third month, with a net sale of 1.52 trillion JPY in foreign equities and a net purchase of 419.6 billion JPY in long-term bonds [4] - The Bank of Japan, investment trust management companies, and insurance companies had net inflows into foreign stocks of 445.5 billion JPY, 333.5 billion JPY, and 207.1 billion JPY respectively in July [4] - The overseas bond market received 3.82 trillion JPY in Japanese long-term bond investments, while short-term notes saw a net withdrawal of 196.6 billion JPY [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. anticipates that bond issuance will remain stable for at least the next few quarters [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Bond Market Outlook** - The U.S. expects a stable bond issuance environment in the upcoming quarters [1]

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading below $36.30, with a recent opening at $36.72 per ounce and a current price of $36.43, reflecting a decrease of 0.83% [1] - The highest price reached today was $36.81 per ounce, while the lowest was $36.29 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend in the silver market [1] - Recent data shows that Japan's Q1 actual GDP annualized contraction rate has narrowed to 0.2%, significantly improving from the initial value of -0.7%, which exceeded market expectations [2] Group 2 - The Japanese government is considering measures to strengthen fiscal credibility in response to rising government debt financing costs as interest rates increase [2] - Japan's government plans to initiate low-yield bond repurchase operations to alleviate pressure from soaring long-term bond yields, aligning with previous policies to reduce long-term bond supply [2] - Japanese investors significantly reduced their holdings in German bonds by 1.48 trillion yen in April, the highest since 2014, and also recorded the largest monthly sell-off of U.S. bonds in nearly six months, amounting to 1.07 trillion yen [2] Group 3 - The international silver price recently surged, breaking through $36.69 per ounce, marking a new high since 2012, with an intraday increase of 2.00% [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.00-$37.50 per ounce, with potential further challenges towards the $40 mark, while short-term support is noted at $35.50-$36.00 per ounce [3]

Group 1 - Foreign investors have cumulatively bought approximately $350 billion in U.S. stocks and $200 billion in U.S. bonds since 2020, indicating a clear divergence in attitudes towards U.S. capital markets [1][3] - In 2025, foreign investment in U.S. stocks reached an annualized inflow of $138 billion, marking the second-largest annual inflow on record, driven by the strong performance of the U.S. consumer market and the leading position of tech giants in AI [1][3] - In contrast, foreign interest in U.S. bonds has significantly decreased, with inflows dropping from around $100 billion annually to nearly zero growth, primarily due to concerns over persistent inflation and high interest rates [1][7] Group 2 - The sustained appeal of U.S. stocks for foreign investors is expected to continue as long as the U.S. economy maintains relative strength and does not enter a deep recession [7] - A recovery in demand for U.S. bonds may require clear signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts and effective control of inflation [7] - The choice between stocks and bonds for foreign investors will remain a key indicator of the attractiveness of the U.S. market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The current crisis in the U.S. bond market is driven by foreign investors' reluctance to finance the U.S. fiscal and current account deficits at current price levels, which can only be addressed by Congress through fiscal tightening, not by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy intervention [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Bond Market and Foreign Investment - Deutsche Bank reports a failed auction of U.S. bonds and a weakening dollar, indicating that foreign investors are "boycotting" U.S. assets [1]. - The bank warns of increased volatility in the market as foreign investors are unwilling to finance U.S. deficits at current levels [1][4]. - The behavior of Asian investors is highlighted as a key indicator for the resilience of U.S. stocks, with a focus on their reactions during Asian trading hours [2][3]. Group 2: U.S. Stock Market Resilience - Deutsche Bank suggests that the resilience of the U.S. stock market will be tested, as the current environment makes it difficult for stocks to maintain strength [3]. - The increase in U.S. yields and stock prices during 2023-2024 was based on a reassessment of growth expectations, which is now overshadowed by rising fiscal risk premiums [3]. Group 3: Solutions to the Crisis - The bank emphasizes that only Congress can resolve the fiscal issues, with two potential solutions: implementing stricter fiscal policies or allowing the non-dollar value of U.S. debt to decrease significantly to attract foreign investors [4]. - Financial repression measures, such as shortening the duration of U.S. debt, have been discussed but come with risks of increased debt rollover [4].

Core Viewpoint - The Director of the National Economic Council, Hassett, stated that U.S. bonds are the best investment choice [1] Group 1 - U.S. bonds are highlighted as a superior investment option compared to other asset classes [1] - The statement reflects confidence in the stability and reliability of U.S. government securities [1] - This perspective may influence investor behavior and market dynamics in the bond sector [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on Taiwan's position in the global bond market, particularly its significant investments in US bonds and the implications for its economy and financial stability [2][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Taiwan has invested approximately $1.7 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, primarily in US bonds, which is over 200% of its GDP and significantly larger than its domestic bond market [3][4]. - This investment has positioned Taiwan as a major, yet underappreciated, player in the global fixed income market [5]. - The accumulation of foreign assets has created a situation where Taiwan faces financial stability risks, particularly due to its reliance on US dollar-denominated assets [7][8]. - Taiwan's current account surplus has been substantial, reaching double digits in 2014 and continuing to grow, which has contributed to its foreign investment strategy [10][13]. - The Taiwanese life insurance industry has played a crucial role in managing the country's foreign currency reserves by investing in US dollar assets, leading to a significant increase in their size [15][18]. Financial Risks and Challenges - There is a notable currency mismatch, with over 40% of the life insurers' portfolios in US dollars while their liabilities are primarily in Taiwanese dollars, exposing them to potential losses if the US dollar depreciates [24][25]. - The cost of hedging against foreign exchange exposure has increased, particularly as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates faster than the Taiwanese central bank [26][31]. - The Taiwanese insurance industry is also vulnerable to interest rate risks, as rising US rates can lead to substantial mark-to-market losses on their bond portfolios [27][35]. - Regulatory measures have allowed insurers to hold foreign bonds at historical costs, but this has left them exposed to future market shocks [38][39]. Additional Considerations - The interconnectedness of Taiwan's financial system with the US means that any significant changes in the US economy could have direct repercussions on Taiwan [40][45]. - The reliance on the central bank for hedging and the potential for a significant appreciation of the Taiwanese dollar poses a risk to the solvency of the life insurance sector [41][42]. - The overall financial strategy of Taiwan's life insurance industry appears to be a risky bet, particularly in light of changing US Treasury policies and potential shifts in trade relations [42][44]. This summary encapsulates the critical aspects of Taiwan's bond market dynamics, the role of its life insurance industry, and the associated financial risks, providing a comprehensive overview of the current situation and potential future challenges.