炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：中金点睛 Abstract 摘要 资产配置的核心是通过跨资产类别的组合设计，对风险与收益进行系统化权衡。本文从目标到实现路径 介绍了资产配置的理论框架，并梳理了海内外的主流资产配置模型，并回测了在中国和全球资产配置场 景下的应用效果。回测结果显示，增强收益推荐关注Black-Litterman与均值方差模型，绝对收益风险平 衡角度推荐风险平价与波动率目标制模型。 资产配置理论框架：设立资配目标、确定资产中枢、明确投资约束、动态调整权重 框架设计维度，首先需要锚定资产配置的核心目的，可拆解为四个相辅相成的维度：收益增值、风险分 散、流动性管理、长期稳健。而各维度的权重会根据投资者的具体需求动态调整。设立目标后，配置思 路的落地路径包括：1）确定大类资产的基准权重与风险中枢；2）明确约束以满足投资偏好需求；3） 结合外部环境、内部估值与趋势信号，对权重进行动态微调。在此过程中，可运用三种不同时间维度与 目标的资产配置策略——战略资产配置、战术资产配置与动态资产配置。 整体而言，合理假设下的收益驱动模式年化收益显著，基本跑赢基准。风险驱 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing Greenland crisis has led investors to seek safe alternatives to the dollar, resulting in gold potentially having its best week in nearly six years, while the dollar faces its worst week since June [1][4]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Performance - Gold reached nearly $5000 per ounce, marking a significant increase, while silver hovered just below $100 per ounce [1]. - Gold experienced a weekly increase of over 7%, the largest single-week gain since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [4]. Group 2: Dollar Performance and Investor Sentiment - The dollar has declined by more than 1% this week, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards U.S. assets [4][7]. - Concerns over political risks associated with U.S. assets have been reignited due to the Greenland crisis, which has historically been a safe haven for global capital [5][6]. - The threat from President Trump regarding tariffs on European allies has further weakened the credibility of the dollar as a dominant asset [7]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Hedging - The uncertainty stemming from the Greenland issue has increased the rationale for investors to hedge their dollar exposure, as evidenced by the performance of other currencies like the Swiss franc and euro, which appreciated against the dollar [7][8]. - RBC Capital Markets noted that the unpredictability of political events has heightened the demand for hedging against dollar fluctuations [8].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's unlimited quantitative easing (QE) and bond purchases aim to increase global liquidity and share the crisis burden, with a focus on stabilizing the credit market rather than the stock market [1][3] - Prior to March 23, the U.S. bond market faced significant issues, with both junk and investment-grade bonds experiencing sharp declines, leading to massive redemptions and forced liquidations by fund managers [1] - The U.S. bond market serves as a global asset anchor, and instability in this market could lead to severe liquidity issues, impacting the potential for stock market recovery [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve will never go bankrupt, as its implementation of unlimited QE and extensive bond purchases represents a balance sheet expansion rather than a need for actual cash [3] - The Federal Reserve's market operations do not require cash payments; instead, they involve balance sheet entries, allowing for theoretically unlimited expansion of the balance sheet [3] - As of March 2020, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded from $3.8 trillion to $4.36 trillion, reflecting the scale of its asset purchases [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. market continues to attract global capital despite external challenges, with foreign investors net buying U.S. securities reaching a historic high of $311.1 billion in May 2025, significantly up from $14.2 billion in April [1][5][15] - Over the past 12 months, net foreign capital inflow approached $1.76 trillion, nearing the peak of $1.4 trillion observed in July 2023, indicating a strong reliance on U.S. markets [3][11][15] - The resilience of foreign investors mirrors that of U.S. consumers, showcasing a robust confidence in the U.S. economy despite trade tensions and market volatility [3][11][17] Foreign Investment Trends - In 2024, foreign direct investment in the U.S. increased by $332.1 billion, bringing the total stock to $5.71 trillion, primarily driven by the manufacturing and financial sectors [5][15] - Despite tariff policies causing initial market disruptions, net capital inflow remained strong, with foreign holdings of U.S. securities rebounding to $26.9 trillion by 2024, an increase of $2 trillion from June 2023 [5][11] - By June 2024, foreign holdings of U.S. securities reached $31.288 trillion, with equities accounting for $16.988 trillion, indicating continued confidence in U.S. assets [5][11] Market Resilience and Investor Behavior - The U.S. market's depth and liquidity make it an attractive destination for global investors, who are willing to endure volatility in exchange for stable returns [5][11][15] - Analysts suggest that the high threshold for capital flight from the U.S. indicates a strong foundational economy, with data showing that even amidst tariff threats, investors have not significantly divested from U.S. stocks and bonds [3][11][15] - The overall market resilience is reflected in the quick recovery of indices following initial declines due to tariff announcements, reinforcing the notion that the U.S. remains a safe haven for investment [11][13][15] Expert Opinions - Experts like Robin Brooks argue that predictions of the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative are premature, as evidenced by the strong capital inflow data [3][11][17] - Concerns about brand damage due to trade wars have not deterred capital from flowing into the U.S., with many analysts affirming the enduring appeal of U.S. assets [7][11][17] - The consensus among experts is that the U.S. continues to provide a stable investment environment that is unmatched by other markets, solidifying its position as a primary destination for global capital [11][17]

Core Viewpoint - The current market is experiencing a divergence in asset pricing, particularly between gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, driven by differing expectations regarding inflation and economic policy responses [1][2][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged by 51% over the past 12 months, surpassing $4000, while the U.S. dollar has depreciated by over 10% against a basket of major currencies [4][5]. - The concept of "devaluation trade" has gained traction, where investors bet on government-induced inflation to alleviate rising debt burdens, leading to increased demand for hard assets like gold and stocks [5][6]. - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has risen from 96% in 2020 to 98% in 2023, raising concerns about future inflation as a means to manage debt [5]. Group 2: Inflation Expectations - The long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. bond market remain stable, with key indicators like the five-year, five-year forward breakeven inflation rate close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target [7][8]. - This stability suggests that bond investors do not foresee runaway inflation, contrasting sharply with the bullish sentiment in the gold market [6][8]. Group 3: Divergence in Economic Signals - The market is currently divided on which economic signals will dominate Federal Reserve decisions—whether to cut rates in response to potential recession or tighten policies to combat inflation [2][10]. - The stock market's rise is attributed more to optimism surrounding AI technology and its potential to drive strong growth with moderate inflation, rather than solely as a hedge against inflation [9]. - The conflicting macroeconomic data, with signs of a slowing job market and strong growth, creates uncertainty about the Fed's future actions [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The report suggests that a rate cut environment may be beneficial for investors in U.S. bonds through globally diversified fixed income portfolios, despite potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Interest Rate Outlook** - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates on Wednesday, which could positively impact fixed income investments [1] - **Inflation Considerations** - Tariffs may lead to higher inflation, but the Fed is likely to focus on protecting the labor market by potentially overlooking inflation rates above their target [1] - **Market Reactions** - The market will closely monitor the Fed's updated "dot plot" projections for future rate cuts beyond September, given the persistent inflation in the U.S. [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve meeting may act as a catalyst for a short-term strengthening of the US dollar, especially given its recent consolidation since early July [1] - Concerns arise that the meeting could trigger a "news sell-off" due to heightened market bubbles, potentially limiting upside and exacerbating downside trading [1] - The US 60/40 stock/bond portfolio has achieved its highest percentile return since April 8, indicating a fatigue in current stock and fixed income levels [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The US stock market is rising, led by technology stocks, with the Nasdaq index experiencing its best single-day gain in nearly two years [2] - The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.4%, with consumer goods and banking stocks performing well, while healthcare stocks lagged [2] Group 3: Bond Market Trends - US bond yields have decreased ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting [3] - European sovereign bond yields also fell, with strong demand for corporate bonds [4] - Investment-grade corporate bonds are at their highest level of technical overbought conditions since early 2020 [5] Group 4: Currency and Commodity Movements - The US dollar is declining, with Deutsche Bank noting that overseas investors are significantly reducing their dollar exposure while purchasing US stocks and bonds [6] - Gold prices are reaching new historical highs as the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates [6] - Oil prices continue to rise as traders consider further sanctions on Russian oil in response to anticipated oversupply later this year [6]

Group 1 - Japanese investors sold foreign stocks for the third consecutive month, withdrawing approximately 536.4 billion JPY (about 3.64 billion USD) in July, following a 1.99 trillion JPY sale in June due to high valuations after a significant stock market rise [1] - In contrast, Japanese investors purchased foreign bonds worth 3.63 trillion JPY in July, marking the third month of net buying, driven by a depreciation of the yen that increased yields [1] - The yen depreciated by about 4.5% against the dollar in July, representing the largest monthly decline since December 2024 [1] Group 2 - Japanese trust accounts (pension funds) also net sold foreign stocks for the third month, with a net sale of 1.52 trillion JPY in foreign equities and a net purchase of 419.6 billion JPY in long-term bonds [4] - The Bank of Japan, investment trust management companies, and insurance companies had net inflows into foreign stocks of 445.5 billion JPY, 333.5 billion JPY, and 207.1 billion JPY respectively in July [4] - The overseas bond market received 3.82 trillion JPY in Japanese long-term bond investments, while short-term notes saw a net withdrawal of 196.6 billion JPY [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. anticipates that bond issuance will remain stable for at least the next few quarters [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Bond Market Outlook** - The U.S. expects a stable bond issuance environment in the upcoming quarters [1]

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading below $36.30, with a recent opening at $36.72 per ounce and a current price of $36.43, reflecting a decrease of 0.83% [1] - The highest price reached today was $36.81 per ounce, while the lowest was $36.29 per ounce, indicating a short-term bearish trend in the silver market [1] - Recent data shows that Japan's Q1 actual GDP annualized contraction rate has narrowed to 0.2%, significantly improving from the initial value of -0.7%, which exceeded market expectations [2] Group 2 - The Japanese government is considering measures to strengthen fiscal credibility in response to rising government debt financing costs as interest rates increase [2] - Japan's government plans to initiate low-yield bond repurchase operations to alleviate pressure from soaring long-term bond yields, aligning with previous policies to reduce long-term bond supply [2] - Japanese investors significantly reduced their holdings in German bonds by 1.48 trillion yen in April, the highest since 2014, and also recorded the largest monthly sell-off of U.S. bonds in nearly six months, amounting to 1.07 trillion yen [2] Group 3 - The international silver price recently surged, breaking through $36.69 per ounce, marking a new high since 2012, with an intraday increase of 2.00% [3] - Key resistance levels for silver are identified at $37.00-$37.50 per ounce, with potential further challenges towards the $40 mark, while short-term support is noted at $35.50-$36.00 per ounce [3]