煤炭行业：美以伊军事冲突推动焦 煤期货价明显上涨，炼焦煤库存量 下降 2026 年 3 月 4 日 看好/维持 煤炭 行业报告 钢厂炼焦煤库存量环比上月下降。截至 2 月 27 日，247 家钢厂炼焦煤库存量 共 792.46 万吨，环比上月下降 21.90 万吨，降幅为 2.69%。 230 家独立焦化厂炼焦煤库存下降，全样本独立焦企的产能利用率下降。截至 2 月 27 日，230 家独立焦化厂炼焦煤库存共 829.46 万吨，环比上月下降 205.88 万吨，降幅为 19.89%，同比上升 158.89 万吨，涨幅 23.69%；230 家独立焦 化厂炼焦煤库存平均可用天数共 12.30 天，环比上月下降 3.40 天，降幅为 21.66%，同比上升 1.24 天，增幅为 12.55%。全样本独立焦企的产能利用率 为 74.36%，环比上月下降 2.50 个百分点，同比下降 2.75 个百分点。 结论：炼焦煤价格下降。美以伊军事冲突推动焦煤期货价明显上涨。三港口合 计炼焦煤库存量月环比下降。钢厂炼焦煤库存量环比上月下降。230 家独立焦 化厂炼焦煤库存月环比下降，全样本独立焦企的产能利用率环比同比下降。 ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC has lowered coal price and cost assumptions, resulting in a 4% reduction in Shougang Resources' (00639) 2025/26E profit to HKD 8.92 billion and HKD 9.78 billion respectively [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's 1H25 net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 38% year-on-year to HKD 4.04 billion, which was better than CICC's expectations due to a smaller decline in profit driven by coal prices, as the cost reduction exceeded expectations [2] - 1H25 production of raw coking coal and premium coking coal increased by 17% and 19% year-on-year to 2.64 million tons and 1.54 million tons respectively, with 100% of raw coal being washed [2] - The average selling price of premium coking coal in 1H25 fell by 45% year-on-year to HKD 1,067 per ton, while the price of Shanxi main coking coal decreased by 36% to HKD 1,401 per ton [2] Group 2: Cost and Cash Flow - The unit production cost of raw coking coal improved significantly in 1H25, decreasing by 28% year-on-year to HKD 328 per ton, with cash costs down by 32% to HKD 241 per ton [3] - The net operating cash inflow in 1H25 was HKD 4.53 billion, a decrease of HKD 7.27 billion year-on-year, with available free funds amounting to HKD 94.75 billion as of the end of June [3] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of HKD 0.06, corresponding to a payout ratio of 76%, resulting in an interim dividend yield of approximately 2.2% based on the current share price [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - CICC maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the coking coal market for 2H25, noting a rebound in coking coal prices since July due to supply contraction in some regions, with prices rising from HKD 968 per ton in June to HKD 1,278 per ton by August 28 [4] - The average price of coking coal in 3Q25 was HKD 1,209 per ton, reflecting a 10% increase compared to 2Q25 [4] - Future price increases may depend on further supply reductions, as demand for coking coal is expected to contract due to weak steel demand and declining profits [4]