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中烟香港(6055.HK):积极回应 政策影响有限
Ge Long Hui· 2025-07-29 11:29
机构:国泰海通证券 研究员:訾猛/刘佳昆/李美仪 本报告导读: 据国家烟草专卖局近期文件,中烟国际为具备烟草进出口国营贸易资格的唯一企业,经公司沟通,双方 已就保持中烟香港独家经营中国境内免税卷烟出口业务达成共识。 投资要点: 投资建议:公 司公告回应上级部门相关管理办法,经积极沟通境内卷烟出口免税业务有望仍由中烟香 港经营,暂无实质变化,维持2025-2027 年EPS 预测值1.40、1.58、1.75 港元,维持增持评级。 公司发布公告回应上级单位有关文件。2025 年7 月25 日国家烟草专卖局发布《境内免税市场烟草制品 管理办法(征求意见稿)》,其中提到,根据法规草案及中国现行法律法规,具备烟草进出口国营贸易 资格的唯一企业为中国烟草国际有限公司(中烟国际)。此前根据中烟香港招股书及年报,中烟国际是 中国唯一具备进口烟叶类产品资格的实体,中烟香港从事烟叶进口时需先销售给中烟国际(加价比例 6%、小部分3%),再由中烟国际销售给烟叶公司,因此这并非中烟国际首次出现相关业务的"唯一 性"表述。 征求意见稿旨在强化免税市场监管。根据征求意见稿,当前境内免税市场烟草制品经营仍存在诸多问 题,国家烟草专卖局按 ...
中烟香港(06055):境内免税烟草制品管理办法征求意见稿发布
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-28 05:18
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is the only listed entity under China Tobacco International, focusing on the import and export of tobacco products, with a stable growth outlook for its main business [8] - The newly proposed management measures for domestic duty-free tobacco products are expected to enhance regulatory oversight and could lead to further development of the company's cigarette import and export business [8] - The company's revenue from domestic duty-free cigarette business is projected to contribute 10% in 2024, indicating a significant market opportunity [8] - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of HKD 870.39 million, HKD 1,011.77 million, and HKD 1,125.43 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 22, and 20 [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 11,836 million in 2023 to HKD 15,718 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.25% [1] - The net profit is expected to increase from HKD 598.77 million in 2023 to HKD 1,125.43 million in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 0.87 in 2023 to HKD 1.63 in 2027, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is HKD 32.65, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 22,583.35 million [5] - The price-to-book ratio is reported at 7.51, suggesting a premium valuation relative to its book value [5] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.53%, indicating a relatively high level of leverage [6]