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中烟香港(06055):境内免税烟草制品管理办法征求意见稿发布
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-28 05:18
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is the only listed entity under China Tobacco International, focusing on the import and export of tobacco products, with a stable growth outlook for its main business [8] - The newly proposed management measures for domestic duty-free tobacco products are expected to enhance regulatory oversight and could lead to further development of the company's cigarette import and export business [8] - The company's revenue from domestic duty-free cigarette business is projected to contribute 10% in 2024, indicating a significant market opportunity [8] - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating net profits of HKD 870.39 million, HKD 1,011.77 million, and HKD 1,125.43 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 22, and 20 [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from HKD 11,836 million in 2023 to HKD 15,718 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.25% [1] - The net profit is expected to increase from HKD 598.77 million in 2023 to HKD 1,125.43 million in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from HKD 0.87 in 2023 to HKD 1.63 in 2027, indicating a positive outlook for shareholder returns [1] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is HKD 32.65, with a market capitalization of approximately HKD 22,583.35 million [5] - The price-to-book ratio is reported at 7.51, suggesting a premium valuation relative to its book value [5] - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 67.53%, indicating a relatively high level of leverage [6]