专注零售，聚焦消费。商业改变世界。你们负责改变世界，我们带你们改造商业。灵兽，零售消费行业 头部新媒体平台，为商业原创报道而生。投稿及合作：lingshouke@126.com 本文来自微信公众号： 灵兽 ，作者：十里，题图来自：AI生成 以下文章来源于灵兽 ，作者十里 一、矛盾的烟酒店 王城经营的那家开了十年的烟酒店，正告别一个黄金时代。 灵兽 . 这家位于河北某个成熟社区的街角小店，其商业模式曾如时钟般精准，以卷烟的高频销售覆盖固定成 本，靠酒类的高毛利实现最终盈利。这个被无数从业者奉为圭臬的公式，在过去十年里，让王城安稳 地度过了市场各种不确定的波动。 然而，现在，这个曾经指引他方向的罗盘，彻底失灵了。 "中秋节？早就不指望了。"对王城而言，这个曾经意味着全年最重要销售战役的节日，如今只剩下库 存的焦虑。 他告诉"灵兽"，"过去，我们提前两个月就得开始备货，尤其是高端白酒和硬通货香烟。现在？备货 量连过去的三分之一都不到，每进一批货都得反复盘算。" 这种极致的保守，是市场给出的最残酷的反馈，利润正在被快速抽干。 变化首先体现在卷烟上。部分高端品类的价格体系正在崩塌。 "比如，一款官方指导价近千元的烟， ...

一、矛盾的烟酒店 王城经营的那家开了十年的烟酒店，正告别一个黄金时代。 这家位于河北某个成熟社区的街角小店，其商业模式曾如时钟般精准，以卷烟的高频销售覆盖固定成 本，靠酒类的高毛利实现最终盈利。这个被无数从业者奉为圭臬的公式，在过去十年里，让王城安稳地 度过了市场各种不确定的波动。 然而，现在，这个曾经指引他方向的罗盘，彻底失灵了。 "中秋节？早就不指望了。"对王城而言，这个曾经意味着全年最重要销售战役的节日，如今只剩下库存 的焦虑。 一个现实正在上演，上游的烟草公司为完成年度指标，仍在加大马力向市场压货；而处于渠道末梢的百 万个"王城"们，却用弃订和降档进行着无声的抵抗。 他告诉"灵兽"，"过去，我们提前两个月就得开始备货，尤其是高端白酒和硬通货香烟。现在？备货量 连过去的三分之一都不到，每进一批货都得反复盘算。" 这种极致的保守，是市场给出的最残酷的反馈，利润正在被快速抽干。 变化首先体现在卷烟上。部分高端品类的价格体系正在崩塌。"比如，一款官方指导价近千元的烟，前 几年是硬通货，同行间调货都得加价。现在卖800块都未必有人接盘，而且出货慢得惊人。"王城说。 这直接击穿了他的盈利模型。"烟养店，酒赚钱"的 ...

整个产业链始于上游的烟叶种植。烟叶作为核心原材料，主要由特定地区的农户在适宜气候条件下种 植，经采摘后进行晾晒、发酵等初加工处理。这一环节受自然条件、政策调控及种植技术影响较大，价 格波动可能对后续环节产生传导效应。 中游为烟草制品的生产制造，主要包括卷烟、雪茄、电子烟等产品的加工。生产企业需具备较高的工艺 水平和质量控制能力，同时受到国家严格的生产许可和税收监管。由于烟草行业具有高利润率特征，规 模化生产和品牌效应成为企业竞争力的重要体现。此外，近年来新型烟草制品如加热不燃烧产品和电子 雾化设备发展迅速，推动产业链向多元化延伸。 下游则涵盖批发、物流配送及终端销售。我国实行烟草专卖制度，销售渠道高度集中，主要通过专营网 络进行分销。零售端包括便利店、超市、烟酒专卖店等，消费场景广泛分布于城市与乡村。由于烟草消 费具有一定刚性，整体需求相对稳定，但受控烟政策、健康意识提升等因素影响，长期增长空间受限。 值得注意的是，烟草行业受政策影响显著，从生产配额、税收调整到广告限制，均可能对产业链各环节 产生深远影响。同时，全球控烟趋势和公共卫生导向也促使企业加快转型步伐，探索减害产品或多元化 布局。 烟草作为一种特殊消 ...

数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年8月中国卷烟产量为2167亿支，同比下降2.2%；2025年1-8月中国卷烟 累计产量为18191.2亿支，累计增长0.1%。 2020-2025年1-8月中国卷烟产量统计图 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国卷烟行业发展前景分析及市场需求预测报告》 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) saw a significant increase in stock price, rising over 6% to HKD 46.7, with a trading volume of HKD 223 million, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Business Performance - The three core business segments of China Tobacco Hong Kong contribute significantly to its revenue, with the import of tobacco leaf products accounting for 81.4%, export of tobacco leaf products for 11.2%, and cigarette exports for 5.3%, totaling 98.0% of revenue [1] - The gross profit contributions from these segments are 72.6% from tobacco leaf imports, 6.7% from tobacco leaf exports, and 15.0% from cigarette exports, aggregating to 94.3% of gross profit [1] Group 2: Market Developments - Guotai Junan Securities highlighted that British American Tobacco recently announced the launch of its glo series in Italy and Poland, including new products glo Hilo, glo HiloPlus, and virto heated tobacco sticks, following a positive market response in Japan [1] - The performance of Hilo in key European markets will be closely monitored for its sales impact [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - CITIC Securities anticipates steady growth in revenue and profit for China Tobacco Hong Kong in the first half of 2025, driven by robust growth in tobacco leaf import and export businesses, along with a decrease in financial expenses [1] - The company aims to maintain its strategic positioning as a platform for overseas capital market operations and international business expansion, suggesting potential for leapfrog development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent initiatives by the Ruichang Tobacco Bureau in Jiangxi Province demonstrate a commitment to enhancing customer service, conducting market research, purifying campus environments, and promoting policies, reflecting the industry's dedication to internal management and social responsibility [1] Group 1: Market Research and Customer Service - Ruichang Tobacco emphasizes the importance of grassroots market vitality and confidence through precise service and support, with leadership personally engaging in in-depth market visits [2] - The team conducts thorough on-site visits to retail terminals, assessing inventory and brand structure while actively listening to customer needs and feedback, which informs future actions [4] - Customer managers provide hands-on guidance to retailers on using scanning machines, enhancing modern management practices, and proactively assist with licensing processes, showcasing a commitment to service efficiency [4] Group 2: Regulatory Strengthening and Environmental Purification - The company plays a crucial role in protecting minors by collaborating with local authorities to conduct special inspections around schools, targeting illegal sales of tobacco products to minors [5] - Inspections extend beyond traditional tobacco shops to include convenience stores and other venues, effectively addressing regulatory blind spots and enhancing legal deterrence [5] - The enforcement actions are complemented by legal education for vendors, raising awareness of the consequences of selling tobacco to minors, thereby fostering a culture of compliance [6] Group 3: Innovative Policy Promotion - Ruichang Tobacco leverages its distribution network to effectively communicate national policies and industry regulations to retail terminals, transforming delivery personnel into mobile policy advocates [7] - Delivery staff engage customers by explaining new policies during deliveries, ensuring timely and effective dissemination of information while enhancing customer satisfaction [9] - This dual approach of combining delivery with policy education strengthens customer relationships and improves the overall effectiveness of policy communication [9] Group 4: Future Directions - The company aims to deepen these effective measures and establish a long-term mechanism to continuously optimize the market environment, contributing to high-quality industry development [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055), demonstrates stable performance through optimization of product structure and business model, enhancing profitability while maintaining a steady dividend payout to shareholders. The company is expected to leverage its overseas business integration platform [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - For the mid-2025 period, the company's revenue reached HKD 10.316 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.5%. The gross profit was HKD 946 million, a decrease of 1.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 706 million, an increase of 9.8%. The mid-term earnings met expectations [2]. - The company maintained a steady dividend policy, with a mid-term dividend per share of HKD 0.19, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.7% [2]. Group 2: Core Business Contributions - The three core business segments—import of tobacco leaf products, export of tobacco leaf products, and cigarette export—contributed 81.4%, 11.2%, and 5.3% to total revenue, respectively, totaling 98.0%. The gross profit contributions were 72.6%, 6.7%, and 15.0%, respectively, totaling 94.3% [3]. - The import business of tobacco leaf products generated revenue of HKD 8.399 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%, with a gross profit of HKD 687 million, down 7.7% due to rising costs from CBT procurement outpacing sales prices [3]. - The export business of tobacco leaf products achieved revenue of HKD 1.156 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.9%, with a gross profit of HKD 63.1 million, up 124.1%, driven by the expansion into new markets and increased export volume and prices [3]. - The cigarette export business reported revenue of HKD 552 million, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a gross profit of HKD 142 million, up 16.8%, attributed to the expansion of self-operated channels and the introduction of new products [3]. Group 3: Profitability Outlook - The company's gross margin and net profit margin for mid-2025 were 9.2% and 6.8%, respectively. The company continues to optimize its product structure and business model, with improvements in gross margins across most business segments, except for the import of tobacco leaf products, which saw a decline [4].

兴证国际发布研报称，中烟香港(06055)业绩稳健，通过产品结构和营业模式优化提升盈利能力，同时 保持稳健增长的派息回馈股东，公司将继续发挥中烟海外业务整合平台的作用。该行预计公司 2025/2026年公司营业收入分别为153.90/164.70亿港元，归母净利润分别为9.46/10.63亿港元，给予"买 入"评级。 兴证国际主要观点如下： 2025中期业绩符合预期，每股派息持续增长 公司2025年中期营收103.16亿港元，同比增长18.5%;毛利9.46亿港元，同比减少1.8%;归母净利润7.06亿 港元，同比增长9.8%。公司保持稳健增长派息政策，中期每股派息0.19港元，同比增长26.7%。公司中 期业绩符合预期。 三大核心业务贡献主要收入和利润 公司的三大核心业务烟叶类产品进口业务、烟叶类产品出口业务、卷烟出口业务收入贡献分别为 81.4%、11.2%和5.3%，合计达到98.0%;毛利贡献分别为72.6%、6.7%和15.0%，合计达到94.3%。 烟叶类产品进口业务：公司的烟叶类产品进口业务2025年中期收入83.99亿港元，同比增长23.5%，毛利 6.87亿港元，同比减少7.7%，毛利下降主 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the impact of changing economic conditions and consumer attitudes on the tobacco market in Wuhan's Huangpi District, emphasizing the need for precise research and support to stabilize retail operations [1] Group 1: Market Research - The customer manager conducted research using a dual approach of "data monitoring + on-site visits" to understand market dynamics and consumer needs [2] - Key findings indicate a trend of "consumption downgrade," with consumers prioritizing affordability and reducing non-essential purchases, leading to increased inventory pressure for retailers [2] Group 2: Service Empowerment - To assist clients in adapting to market changes, the customer manager provided three supportive services: 1. Information dissemination through a group chat to share sales techniques and consumer feedback [4] 2. Technical assistance for older clients or those facing operational difficulties, including on-site guidance for using retail systems [4] 3. Consumer engagement initiatives, such as cultural salons to promote the core selling points of "stable quality and affordable prices" [4] - The article notes that consumption downgrade reflects a shift towards "demand upgrade," where consumers seek better value for their money [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company achieved a robust revenue growth of HK$ 10.316 billion in 2025H1, representing an 18.5% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of HK$ 706 million, up 9.8% [1] - The company continues to focus on capital market operations and international business expansion, aiming to enhance profitability through supply chain resilience and optimized pricing strategies [5] - The company is expected to benefit from its unique position as a platform and industry integrator in the tobacco export market, with projected revenues of HK$ 14.7 billion, HK$ 15.9 billion, and HK$ 17.1 billion for 2025-2027, reflecting growth rates of 12%, 8%, and 8% respectively [6] Revenue Breakdown - The tobacco leaf import business generated HK$ 8.399 billion in revenue, a 23.5% increase, with a volume of 97,900 tons, up 2.5%. However, gross profit declined by 7.7% due to rising costs [2] - Tobacco leaf export revenue reached HK$ 1.156 billion, a 25.9% increase, with a volume of 38,500 tons, up 12.7%, and gross profit surged by 124.1% due to market expansion and pricing strategy optimization [2] - Cigarette export revenue was HK$ 552 million, a slight increase of 0.8%, with a volume of 1.019 billion sticks, down 7.9%. Gross profit increased by 16.8% due to enhanced self-operated channel development [3] Regional Performance - The company's Brazilian operations saw a significant decline, with tobacco leaf export revenue dropping to HK$ 195 million, down 50.3%, and volume decreasing by 34.8% due to adverse weather conditions affecting production [4] - New tobacco product exports also faced challenges, with revenue falling to HK$ 15 million, down 66.5%, and volume down 65.4%, primarily due to geopolitical conflicts and regulatory changes in target markets [4] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HK$ 944 million, HK$ 1.090 billion, and HK$ 1.224 billion for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 11%, 15%, and 12% respectively [6] - The expected P/E ratios for the same period are 31.11X, 26.95X, and 24.00X, reflecting the company's growth potential and market position [6]