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烧碱:短期震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:39
Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View - The report indicates that the caustic soda market will experience short - term fluctuations. The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are expectations for peak - season demand. The upcoming alumina production capacity in Guangxi and strong export support will affect the domestic caustic soda market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2502, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali spot in Shandong was 800, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price was 2500, and the basis was - 2 [1]. Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32 - alkali in the Shandong market remained stable overall. The demand from surrounding areas for high - concentration caustic soda supported partial shipments, and some manufacturers raised the price of high - concentration caustic soda [2]. Market Condition Analysis - In terms of cost, the weak liquid chlorine market strengthens the cost support for caustic soda. There are still expectations for peak - season demand, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 billion tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi by the end of this year, which will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory build - up will drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory - building rhythm [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3].