Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Stronger Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are still expectations for demand during the peak season. The expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region, and the alumina inventory preparation will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory stocking rhythm [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 14, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2,481, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2,531, and the basis was 50 [1] Spot News - Starting from August 14, the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price at 770 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak liquid chlorine. There are expectations for demand during the peak season, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year, leading to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory preparation will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory stocking rhythm [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a "Stronger" trend [3]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View - The report indicates that the caustic soda market will experience short - term fluctuations. The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are expectations for peak - season demand. The upcoming alumina production capacity in Guangxi and strong export support will affect the domestic caustic soda market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2502, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali spot in Shandong was 800, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price was 2500, and the basis was - 2 [1]. Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32 - alkali in the Shandong market remained stable overall. The demand from surrounding areas for high - concentration caustic soda supported partial shipments, and some manufacturers raised the price of high - concentration caustic soda [2]. Market Condition Analysis - In terms of cost, the weak liquid chlorine market strengthens the cost support for caustic soda. There are still expectations for peak - season demand, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 billion tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi by the end of this year, which will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory build - up will drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory - building rhythm [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3].