2025 年 8 月 26 日 烧碱：短期回调，关注近月仓单压力 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 11合约期货价格 | 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 | 山东现货32碱折盘面 | 基差 | | 2732 | 860 | 2688 | -45 | 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，周末山东主力下游采购 32 碱价格上调 15 元至 815 元，在此之前省内散户已经开 始上调，周末碱厂小幅跟涨 10 元，目前省内液碱库存短期持续低位，关注重点在主力下游送货量的变化上。 【市场状况分析】 目前烧碱市场核心驱动为需求端持续扩张。非铝需求面临旺季改善。氧化铝行业今年年底广西地区存在 360 万吨产能预期投产（如果顺利灌槽囤货需求预计 10 月份开始），广西地区烧碱供应偏紧，灌槽需求的烧 碱大部分只能从外部采购，而片碱-液碱价差已处于年内高位水平，因此后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Bullish with caution on near - month warehouse receipts" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market's core driver is the continuous expansion of demand. With rising alumina demand and strong export support, the market is expected to have upward - driven spot prices during the downstream peak season. However, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries may limit profit expansion and cause potential passive production cuts. Overall, a bullish view is maintained, but near - month warehouse receipts need attention in the short term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2700, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 850, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2656, and the basis is - 44 [1] Spot News - Based on Shandong, supported by a 20 yuan/ton increase in the procurement price of major downstream, local caustic soda plants raised prices to varying degrees. With low inventory pressure, the short - term market is expected to remain at a high level [1] Market Condition Analysis - Demand side: Alumina's rigid and stocking demand is rising, especially with 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity expected to be put into operation in Guangxi by the end of this year, leading to tight local supply and increased demand for 50% caustic soda. The 93 - parade affects transportation, and a Shandong alumina plant may raise its procurement price. Export support remains strong, but inventory - building rhythms affect domestic prices [1] - Supply side: The weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries like PVC limits profit expansion and may cause passive production cuts in the future [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [2]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View - The report indicates that the caustic soda market will experience short - term fluctuations. The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are expectations for peak - season demand. The upcoming alumina production capacity in Guangxi and strong export support will affect the domestic caustic soda market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2502, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali spot in Shandong was 800, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price was 2500, and the basis was - 2 [1]. Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32 - alkali in the Shandong market remained stable overall. The demand from surrounding areas for high - concentration caustic soda supported partial shipments, and some manufacturers raised the price of high - concentration caustic soda [2]. Market Condition Analysis - In terms of cost, the weak liquid chlorine market strengthens the cost support for caustic soda. There are still expectations for peak - season demand, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 billion tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi by the end of this year, which will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory build - up will drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory - building rhythm [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3].