1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on caustic soda investment [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the conflict between the United States and Iran, there is an expectation of significant production cuts in the future, leading to a bullish outlook on caustic soda [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance has decreased, and production has increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production has increased by 0.3 tons to 85 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises is 85.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.1%. The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded, and coastal chlor - alkali plants are expected to cut production due to raw material issues [3] - **Demand**: Alumina production has declined, and non - aluminum demand is weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry is 90.14%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in Zhejiang is 50.83%, an increase of 7.50% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 13.34%. In December 2025, China's liquid caustic soda exports were 309,638.3 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3%; the cumulative exports from January to December were 3,429,614.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.6% [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 534,200 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. The storage capacity ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises is 30.41%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The inventory in the central China sample warehouse has increased by 21.74%, while that in the eastern China sample warehouse has decreased by 12.78% [3] - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around - 666, and the futures price is at a significant premium [3] - **Profit**: During the week, raw material and auxiliary material costs decreased, energy costs increased slightly, and the theoretical production cost of caustic soda decreased. The price of caustic soda increased, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increased significantly, and the overall chlor - alkali profit increased. The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has been adjusted to 300 yuan/ton [3] - **Valuation**: The spot price is at a low level, the absolute futures price is neutral, and the main contract is at a significant premium [3] - **Macroeconomic Policy**: The conflict between the United States and Iran has expanded, causing a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC, and some chlor - alkali plants are facing shutdown [3] - **Investment View**: Bullish, as the conflict between the United States and Iran is expected to lead to significant production cuts in the future [3] - **Trading Strategy**: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended for now [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - This week, the spot price in Shandong has slightly increased, while the futures price has increased significantly. On the supply side, liquid chlorine prices have rebounded, the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit is in the red, there is less maintenance, and enterprises have less load reduction, resulting in relatively high overall supply. On the demand side, downstream customers resist high prices and make purchases based on rigid demand. Traders have a weak enthusiasm for stockpiling, but export transactions are good. The inventory accumulation in Shandong is better than expected, the inventory pressure is small, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices. However, the conflict between the United States and Iran has led to a shortage of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC plants, and some plants are planning to shut down or reduce their loads. As a co - product, caustic soda is also facing shutdown or load reduction, which is expected to lead to a shortage of caustic soda supply in the future [6] 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: Coal prices have stabilized, and electricity prices are fluctuating within a range [33] - **Upstream Production**: The production capacity utilization rate remains at a high level, and inventory is being depleted [36] - **Production in Main Production Areas**: Maintenance in North China has decreased, and production has increased [39] - **Chlor - Alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit has decreased [40] - **Downstream Prices**: Alumina prices have declined, and non - aluminum prices are weak [43] - **Alumina**: The supply - demand balance of alumina has been restored, and inventory has increased. Port bauxite inventory has increased. Alumina profit is poor, but there has been no significant production cut. The supply is in surplus, and the bauxite inventory of factories has increased significantly [55][61] - **Non - Aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the startup rate is at a low level. The printing and dyeing market is weak, and the short - term market recovery is乏力 [62][63] - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The startup rate has rebounded [71]

Core Insights - The average weekly price of 32% caustic soda is 794 CNY/ton, down 0.75% month-on-month, while the average price of 50% caustic soda remains stable at 1250 CNY/ton [1] - In Shandong province, the market shows mixed performance, with increased inventory leading to price reductions, affecting the overall average price of 32% caustic soda [1] - In Jiangsu, the low-concentration liquid caustic soda market is trending weak, with a weekly average price of 910 CNY/ton, down 2.15% month-on-month, due to lack of demand despite some maintenance in production facilities [1] Inventory Analysis - As of November 12, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China is 204,200 tons, a decrease of 5.20% from November 5 [2] - In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda is 100,800 tons, down 0.79% from November 5, with variations in inventory levels across different factories due to low-price sales and maintenance [2] - The caustic soda industry faces supply-demand pressure, particularly from the main downstream aluminum oxide buyers, leading to weak support for caustic soda prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of caustic soda in the spot market is not over, but the time for a strong rally has not yet arrived. The core lies in the concentrated stockpiling in the alumina and export sectors. Short - term warehouse receipt factors may lead to a phased correction, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic about Zhejiang warehouse receipts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2732, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 860, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2688, and the basis is - 45 [3] - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major downstream enterprises in Shandong over the weekend was raised by 15 yuan to 815 yuan. Before that, small - scale buyers in the province had already started to raise prices, and caustic soda plants slightly followed suit with a 10 - yuan increase over the weekend. Currently, the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda in the province remains low, and attention should be focused on changes in the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises [3] Market Condition Analysis - The core driver of the current caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. Non - aluminum demand is expected to improve during the peak season. In Guangxi, there are expectations of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity to be put into operation by the end of this year. If the tank - filling and stockpiling go smoothly, the demand is expected to start in October. The caustic soda supply in Guangxi is tight, and most of the caustic soda for tank - filling needs to be purchased from outside. With the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread at a high level this year, the subsequent alumina stockpiling will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. If the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread remains strong and the 50 - 32% caustic soda price spread widens, caustic soda will face a continuous positive feedback, and the upward driving force will be stronger than the current situation [4] - The 9.3 military parade affects caustic soda transportation. Recently, the delivery volume of caustic soda to an alumina plant in Shandong has been continuously low, and its purchase price was further raised this weekend. Today, the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises is still lower than the daily consumption and has decreased compared to the previous period [4] - In terms of exports, the support is still strong. The export direction has expanded significantly year - on - year this year, but the stockpiling rhythm will affect the domestic caustic soda price. On the supply side, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC will limit the substantial expansion of the overall industry profit [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [5][6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Bullish with caution on near - month warehouse receipts" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market's core driver is the continuous expansion of demand. With rising alumina demand and strong export support, the market is expected to have upward - driven spot prices during the downstream peak season. However, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries may limit profit expansion and cause potential passive production cuts. Overall, a bullish view is maintained, but near - month warehouse receipts need attention in the short term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2700, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 850, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2656, and the basis is - 44 [1] Spot News - Based on Shandong, supported by a 20 yuan/ton increase in the procurement price of major downstream, local caustic soda plants raised prices to varying degrees. With low inventory pressure, the short - term market is expected to remain at a high level [1] Market Condition Analysis - Demand side: Alumina's rigid and stocking demand is rising, especially with 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity expected to be put into operation in Guangxi by the end of this year, leading to tight local supply and increased demand for 50% caustic soda. The 93 - parade affects transportation, and a Shandong alumina plant may raise its procurement price. Export support remains strong, but inventory - building rhythms affect domestic prices [1] - Supply side: The weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries like PVC limits profit expansion and may cause passive production cuts in the future [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [2]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View - The report indicates that the caustic soda market will experience short - term fluctuations. The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are expectations for peak - season demand. The upcoming alumina production capacity in Guangxi and strong export support will affect the domestic caustic soda market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2502, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali spot in Shandong was 800, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price was 2500, and the basis was - 2 [1]. Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32 - alkali in the Shandong market remained stable overall. The demand from surrounding areas for high - concentration caustic soda supported partial shipments, and some manufacturers raised the price of high - concentration caustic soda [2]. Market Condition Analysis - In terms of cost, the weak liquid chlorine market strengthens the cost support for caustic soda. There are still expectations for peak - season demand, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 billion tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi by the end of this year, which will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory build - up will drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory - building rhythm [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3].