Core Insights - The average weekly price of 32% caustic soda is 794 CNY/ton, down 0.75% month-on-month, while the average price of 50% caustic soda remains stable at 1250 CNY/ton [1] - In Shandong province, the market shows mixed performance, with increased inventory leading to price reductions, affecting the overall average price of 32% caustic soda [1] - In Jiangsu, the low-concentration liquid caustic soda market is trending weak, with a weekly average price of 910 CNY/ton, down 2.15% month-on-month, due to lack of demand despite some maintenance in production facilities [1] Inventory Analysis - As of November 12, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China is 204,200 tons, a decrease of 5.20% from November 5 [2] - In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda is 100,800 tons, down 0.79% from November 5, with variations in inventory levels across different factories due to low-price sales and maintenance [2] - The caustic soda industry faces supply-demand pressure, particularly from the main downstream aluminum oxide buyers, leading to weak support for caustic soda prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4] Core View of the Report - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor - alkali profit [3] - The impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda basically offsets each other, and the supply pressure in the domestic market increases [3] - The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production - cut expectation, and the cost support is limited, making it difficult for caustic soda to rebound significantly [3] - In the long term, the alumina production - cut problem will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2291, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 760, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2375, and the basis was 84 [1] Spot News - On November 17, due to poor unloading of alumina, the main downstream product in Shandong, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda was reduced by 10 yuan to 720 yuan, and the transaction prices in cities across Shandong followed the decline, with a relatively large drop in the southwestern Shandong market due to high inventory [2] Market Condition Analysis - The high - production and high - inventory situation of caustic soda persists, and the market is shorting chlor - alkali profit [3] - From the demand side, the impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda offsets each other. In winter, there is limited supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling under high - operation conditions. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure [3] - The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production - cut expectations, cost support is limited, and without production cuts by manufacturers, it's hard for caustic soda to rebound significantly. In the long run, alumina production cuts will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward trend of caustic soda in the spot market is not over, but the time for a strong rally has not yet arrived. The core lies in the concentrated stockpiling in the alumina and export sectors. Short - term warehouse receipt factors may lead to a phased correction, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic about Zhejiang warehouse receipts [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2732, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 860, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2688, and the basis is - 45 [3] - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major downstream enterprises in Shandong over the weekend was raised by 15 yuan to 815 yuan. Before that, small - scale buyers in the province had already started to raise prices, and caustic soda plants slightly followed suit with a 10 - yuan increase over the weekend. Currently, the short - term inventory of liquid caustic soda in the province remains low, and attention should be focused on changes in the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises [3] Market Condition Analysis - The core driver of the current caustic soda market is the continuous expansion of demand. Non - aluminum demand is expected to improve during the peak season. In Guangxi, there are expectations of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity to be put into operation by the end of this year. If the tank - filling and stockpiling go smoothly, the demand is expected to start in October. The caustic soda supply in Guangxi is tight, and most of the caustic soda for tank - filling needs to be purchased from outside. With the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread at a high level this year, the subsequent alumina stockpiling will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. If the flake - liquid caustic soda price spread remains strong and the 50 - 32% caustic soda price spread widens, caustic soda will face a continuous positive feedback, and the upward driving force will be stronger than the current situation [4] - The 9.3 military parade affects caustic soda transportation. Recently, the delivery volume of caustic soda to an alumina plant in Shandong has been continuously low, and its purchase price was further raised this weekend. Today, the delivery volume to major downstream enterprises is still lower than the daily consumption and has decreased compared to the previous period [4] - In terms of exports, the support is still strong. The export direction has expanded significantly year - on - year this year, but the stockpiling rhythm will affect the domestic caustic soda price. On the supply side, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC will limit the substantial expansion of the overall industry profit [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of trend intensity being an integer within the [- 2, 2] interval. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [5][6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Bullish with caution on near - month warehouse receipts" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market's core driver is the continuous expansion of demand. With rising alumina demand and strong export support, the market is expected to have upward - driven spot prices during the downstream peak season. However, the weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries may limit profit expansion and cause potential passive production cuts. Overall, a bullish view is maintained, but near - month warehouse receipts need attention in the short term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 11 - contract is 2700, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 850, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2656, and the basis is - 44 [1] Spot News - Based on Shandong, supported by a 20 yuan/ton increase in the procurement price of major downstream, local caustic soda plants raised prices to varying degrees. With low inventory pressure, the short - term market is expected to remain at a high level [1] Market Condition Analysis - Demand side: Alumina's rigid and stocking demand is rising, especially with 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity expected to be put into operation in Guangxi by the end of this year, leading to tight local supply and increased demand for 50% caustic soda. The 93 - parade affects transportation, and a Shandong alumina plant may raise its procurement price. Export support remains strong, but inventory - building rhythms affect domestic prices [1] - Supply side: The weakness of chlorine - consuming downstream industries like PVC limits profit expansion and may cause passive production cuts in the future [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view [2]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View - The report indicates that the caustic soda market will experience short - term fluctuations. The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are expectations for peak - season demand. The upcoming alumina production capacity in Guangxi and strong export support will affect the domestic caustic soda market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2502, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali spot in Shandong was 800, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price was 2500, and the basis was - 2 [1]. Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32 - alkali in the Shandong market remained stable overall. The demand from surrounding areas for high - concentration caustic soda supported partial shipments, and some manufacturers raised the price of high - concentration caustic soda [2]. Market Condition Analysis - In terms of cost, the weak liquid chlorine market strengthens the cost support for caustic soda. There are still expectations for peak - season demand, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 billion tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi by the end of this year, which will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory build - up will drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory - building rhythm [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3].