1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Wait for short - selling opportunities for caustic soda, but the upside space may also be large. Caustic soda is currently supported by peak - season expectations and procurement, with spot prices showing a firm trend. However, the 01 contract is in the off - season, and spot prices may fall again later. [3] - The caustic soda market in August was mainly driven by demand, showing a pattern of rising first and then falling. Looking forward, caustic soda is about to enter the seasonal peak season, and the growth of non - aluminum demand may further boost the near - term market. It is not recommended to chase the rise, and short - selling opportunities can be sought after the full release of price elasticity driven by this round of demand. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 (Market Review) - In August, the caustic soda futures showed a trend of rising first and then falling. The early - stage rise was mainly driven by downstream demand, with the main contract SH2601 rising from a minimum of 2,521 yuan/ton to a high of 2,764 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.43%. The late - stage decline was due to the approaching delivery of the near - month 09 contract, with a large number of registered warrants in the Zhejiang region, suppressing the near - month contract. [13] - Overall, the caustic soda spot market was strong due to downstream demand and peak - season expectations. After the digestion of warrants for near - month delivery, the caustic soda futures are expected to continue to be strong. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of this price increase cycle. [14] 3.2现货价格 (Spot Prices) - Data on the spot prices of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Henan on August 28, 2025, were presented. [19][21][30] 3.3价差 (Price Spreads) - Model price spreads, including the spreads between 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, and between 99% flake caustic soda and 32% caustic soda in different regions, were provided. [31][35] - Regional price spreads, such as the spreads of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda between different regions, were also presented. [37][38][39] 3.4供应端 (Supply Side) - Domestic caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total. In July, domestic caustic soda production (in 100% equivalent) was 3.6296 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.31%. The expected production in August is 3.4074 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.12%. The operating rate in August was 79.60%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.69% compared to July. [44] - Information on the operating rates of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda on a weekly basis was provided. [45] - A detailed list of the maintenance status of various caustic soda enterprises, including those in shutdown, relocation, and maintenance, as well as their recovery and planned maintenance situations, was given. The total impact on the 100% equivalent production in August is expected to be 142,960 tons. [52] - The operating conditions of flake caustic soda plants, including normal operation, under - load operation, and planned maintenance, were presented. [57] 3.5进出口 (Imports and Exports) - In July 2025, China's liquid caustic soda imports were 50,842 tons, a year - on - year increase of 100.50% and a month - on - month increase of 5.90%. The cumulative imports from January to July were 232,310 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 96.21%. Exports were 30,78 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59.61% and a month - on - month increase of 5.79%. The cumulative exports from January to July were 2.0333 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 53.79%. [58] - Information on the imports and exports of solid caustic soda in July 2025 was also provided, with imports of 643.49 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 25.42% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.59%) and exports of 63,849.67 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7.30% and a year - on - year increase of 99.89%). [66] 3.6需求端 (Demand Side) - In August, the domestic alumina market price stopped rising and started to fall. The profit of alumina was acceptable, with high production willingness and high operating capacity. The demand for alumina in the north decreased slightly, while that in the south increased significantly. The overall spot trading volume decreased, and the price was stable with a slight decline. As of August 26, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 11.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 9.52 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93%. [71] - In August, the domestic viscose staple fiber market price recovered. The monthly average price was 12,902 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton (0.80%). The cost side continued to decline, the inventory level decreased, and the demand support was strong. [71] 3.7库存 (Inventory) - In August, the national liquid caustic soda factory inventory first increased and then decreased, with limited overall changes, while the flake caustic soda inventory increased. The inventory in Shandong, the benchmark region, had limited pressure, and enterprises had a strong willingness to raise prices. As of August 29, 2025, the domestic liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 262,100 tons, a slight decrease compared to August 1. The domestic flake caustic soda factory inventory was 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 36.13%. [98] 3.8估值 (Valuation) - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. In August, the cost side strengthened slightly, and the profit level increased due to the rising spot prices. The industrial salt market first stabilized and then rose, with the monthly average price slightly lower than the previous month. The price of thermal coal first rose and then fell. [103] 3.9耗氯下游 (Chlorine - consuming Downstream) - Data on the operating rates, prices, and comprehensive profits of PVC powder, propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, dichloromethane, and trichloromethane were provided. [128][129][132] 3.10烧碱供需平衡表 (Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Balance Sheet) - The supply - demand balance sheets of caustic soda in 2024 and 2025, including production, imports and exports, consumption, and inventory, were presented, along with their year - on - year changes. 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Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the caustic soda industry is "Stronger Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are still expectations for demand during the peak season. The expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region, and the alumina inventory preparation will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory stocking rhythm [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 14, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2,481, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2,531, and the basis was 50 [1] Spot News - Starting from August 14, the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price at 770 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak liquid chlorine. There are expectations for demand during the peak season, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 million tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi at the end of this year, leading to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory preparation will drive the circulation of domestic 50% caustic soda. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory stocking rhythm [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a "Stronger" trend [3]

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2) Core View - The report indicates that the caustic soda market will experience short - term fluctuations. The cost support for caustic soda is strong due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine, and there are expectations for peak - season demand. The upcoming alumina production capacity in Guangxi and strong export support will affect the domestic caustic soda market [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On August 13, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2502, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32 - alkali spot in Shandong was 800, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price was 2500, and the basis was - 2 [1]. Spot News - Based on the Shandong region, the price of 32 - alkali in the Shandong market remained stable overall. The demand from surrounding areas for high - concentration caustic soda supported partial shipments, and some manufacturers raised the price of high - concentration caustic soda [2]. Market Condition Analysis - In terms of cost, the weak liquid chlorine market strengthens the cost support for caustic soda. There are still expectations for peak - season demand, especially with the expected commissioning of 3.6 billion tons of alumina production capacity in Guangxi by the end of this year, which will lead to a tight supply of caustic soda in the region. The alumina inventory build - up will drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali. The export support remains strong, but the domestic caustic soda price will be affected by the inventory - building rhythm [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [3].