注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表示 最看空，2 表示最看多。 期货研究 烧碱：成本支撑，但趋势压力仍在 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2303 780 2438 135 2025 年 11 月 6 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，11 月 5 日山东液碱市场局部稳定，低度碱供应有所增加，涨跌均显乏力，高度碱 在订单及库存支撑下，不排除有涨价可能。 【市场状况分析】 从基本面看，烧碱高产量、高库存格局延续，市场持续做空氯碱利润。从需求端看，考虑到氧化铝行业 未来可能减产装置耗碱量偏高，因此氧化铝投产预期和减产预期对烧碱带来的影响基本上可以相抵消。而 冬季本身是氯碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，囤货带来的供需缺口或有限。此外，非铝下游支撑有限，同 时出口承压，导致国内供应压力进一步增大。长期而言，氧化铝减产问题终究会导致产业链负反馈，要改变 这种格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand fundamentals of caustic soda have limited changes, and the spot market is weakly stable, waiting for a driving force. There is an opportunity to short caustic soda, but the upside space may also be large. The spot price is currently relatively strong, but as it enters the off - season later, the spot price may decline again [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Price - Domestic caustic soda is divided into different specifications such as 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% liquid caustic soda, and 99% flake caustic soda. The low - concentration caustic soda market price in China has strengthened slightly. In Shandong, the average market price of 32% ion - exchange membrane liquid caustic soda before the holiday was 813 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2540.625 yuan/dry ton), and after the holiday, it was 315 yuan/wet ton (converted to 2540.675 yuan/ton) [19]. 3.2 Spread 3.2.1 Model Spread - The spread between 50 - alkali and 32 - alkali and the spread between 99 - flake caustic soda and 32 - alkali vary in different regions and show different trends over time [27][31]. 3.2.2 Regional Spread - The regional spreads of 32 - alkali, 50 - alkali, and 99 - flake caustic soda between different regions also have different trends over time [34][35]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Load and Output - China's caustic soda production capacity is mainly concentrated in North China, Northwest China, and East China, accounting for 80% of the total national capacity. This week, the domestic caustic soda output is expected to be 85.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic liquid caustic soda enterprises is 86.59%, a week - on - week increase of 0.35% [40]. 3.3.2 Maintenance Situation - There are long - term shutdown, this - week maintenance, and future - planned maintenance situations for chlor - alkali plants. For example, Yangmei in North China - Shanxi has been shut down since 2016, and Jiangsu Xinpu in East China - Jiangsu has resumed operation after maintenance from August 25th to September 14th [45]. 3.3.3 Flake Caustic Soda Plant Operation - The operation status of flake caustic soda plants varies among different manufacturers. For example, Xinjiang Zhongtai's flake caustic soda plant in Shengxiong Factory has been under semi - load maintenance from September 6th to 26th, and there are also plans for future maintenance [47]. 3.4 Downstream Demand 3.4.1 Alumina - The alumina market has different price trends, spreads, production profits, operating rates, and inventory situations. For example, the average price of alumina in different regions shows different trends over time, and the production profit also fluctuates [54]. 3.4.2 Other Downstream Industries - In the viscose staple fiber industry, the capacity utilization rate this week is 89.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19%. In the printing and dyeing industry, as of October 9th, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 66.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47% [53]. 3.5 Inventory - As of October 3, 2025, the inventory of domestic liquid caustic soda factories is 24.44 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.91%, and the inventory of domestic flake caustic soda factories is 2.08 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36.59% [69]. 3.6 Valuation - The processing cost of caustic soda mainly comes from raw salt and electricity. The domestic industrial salt market is stable this week, and the price of domestic thermal coal is rising. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali at the spot end this week is basically the same as last week [75]. 3.7 Chlorine - Consuming Downstream - For chlorine - consuming downstream products such as PVC, the benchmark spot price shows a certain trend over time. The production capacity utilization rate and production profit of other chlorine - consuming products such as epoxy propane and epoxy chloropropane also have different performance [87][93]. 3.8 Industrial Chain Operation Suggestions - Different participants in the industrial chain have different operation suggestions. For example, producers with high inventory can buy put options and sell call options for inventory management; traders can consider building inventory by selling put options and buying call options [4][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the price of liquid caustic soda has stopped declining and has begun to rise after eight weeks of continuous decrease, indicating a potential market recovery [1] - Factors driving the price rebound include supply and demand dynamics, which are crucial for understanding the market trends [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that the recent price movements are significant for stakeholders in the caustic soda market, as they reflect changes in market sentiment and economic conditions [1] - A detailed analysis of the supply-demand interplay is provided, which is essential for forecasting future price trends [1]