10月9日，国内期市能化板块多数飘绿。其中，烧碱期货主力合约开盘报2520.0元/吨，今日盘中低位震 荡运行；截至发稿，烧碱主力最高触及2526.0元，下方探低2442.0元，跌幅达2.35%附近。 目前来看，烧碱行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于烧碱后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 瑞达期货（002961）指出，10月氯碱装置检修损失量预计较9月有所下降，或带动烧碱产能利用率中枢 上移。氧化铝利润持续下降并接近盈亏平衡线，只是目前企业尚无规模性减产计划，短期耗碱需求预计 不会出现大幅收缩；非铝下游缺乏需求改善信号，预计维持刚需采购。国庆期间物流受阻，液碱工厂有 累库预期。节后随着下游部分非铝行业复工，液碱工厂库存压力或将缓解。今年四季度至明年年初下游 氧化铝有新装置投放，给到远端供需改善预期。关注氧化铝新产能补库节奏。节后烧碱盘面震荡对待， SH2601区间预计在2470-2580附近。 中原期货分析称，国庆小长假，山东市场需求端无明显利好，送主力下游液碱量仍较大，氯碱企业开工 负荷较高且下游卸货不畅，短期库存消化压力大，预计小长假期间库存大概率增加。近期不排除继续降 价可能。综合来看，山 ...

中泰期货烧碱周报 ——液氯价格未能如预期下跌 烧碱期货价格承压下行 2025 . 9 . 2 8 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 本周期（20250919-0925）中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.5%，较上周环比+0.6%。西北新增装置减产检修，负荷下滑；华北、 | | | | 华东有装置检修结束提负，负荷提升。具体来看，西北-2.8%至86.3%；华东+4.5%至79.9%，华北+1.2%至79.6%，其中山东+0.3%至88.0%。隆众测算， | | | | 下周来看，除西南外，其他6大区均有不同程度提负。预计下周烧碱产能利用率85.9%左右，周产量84.57万吨左右。（预估数据源自隆众资讯） 本周期（20250919-0925），中国氧化铝产量185.5万吨，环比上周186.1万吨下滑；山东氧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. The烧碱 market sees a decline in 32% alkali prices and stable 50% alkali prices. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues, and non - aluminum demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and new alumina production [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16), with an East China basis of - 205 yuan/ton (-6) and a South China basis of - 105 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Spot Prices**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+10), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was 5.2 dollars/ton (+0.1) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.11% (+0.68%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1] 烧碱 - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2537 yuan/ton (-11), and the Shandong 32% liquid alkali basis was - 37 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid alkali was quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong 50% liquid alkali was quoted at 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of Shandong caustic soda was 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Liquid alkali factory inventory was 39.12 tons (+1.29), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.08 tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+0.60%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The alumina operating rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the East China printing and dyeing operating rate was 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 89.82% (+0.30%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. Attention should be paid to pre - National Day replenishment sentiment and macro - environment impacts [3] 烧碱 - The 32% alkali price has been continuously decreasing, while the 50% alkali price has stabilized. Production may increase slightly as some maintenance enterprises resume operations. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues. The 50% alkali inventory reduction drives the Shandong caustic soda inventory decline, but the national liquid alkali inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to the 32% alkali sales situation, non - aluminum demand resilience, new alumina production, and downstream replenishment [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Fluctuate widely with the macro - environment [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Wait and see [4] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [4] 烧碱 - **Single - side Trading**: Wait and see [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic liquid caustic soda market shows stable prices in multiple regions, with a notable price increase for 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, despite limited profitability for chlor-alkali enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The transaction volume in the domestic liquid caustic soda market is acceptable today, with prices stable in many areas and an increase in the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong [1]. - In Shandong, the main transaction price for 32% liquid caustic soda is between 770-865 RMB/ton, while for 50% liquid caustic soda, it is between 1270-1290 RMB/ton [1]. - The overall supply and demand situation in other regions remains stable, although some markets see a decline in the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase at current high prices [1]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of this Thursday, the national average operating load of sample enterprises is 85.44%, down 1.29 percentage points from last week, due to increased maintenance and production cuts in chlor-alkali facilities [2]. - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China increased to 173,300 tons, up 0.70% from September 10, driven by reduced production and active downstream procurement [2]. - In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda rose to 36,600 tons, an increase of 8.28% from September 10, indicating a higher overall inventory level due to low downstream purchasing activity [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The market continues to trend weakly, with increased supply and higher operating rates among sample manufacturers [3]. - The recent decline in domestic alumina prices has narrowed profit margins for domestic alumina enterprises, leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the North China region [3]. - In Shandong, due to the upcoming National Day holiday, there may be a delay in releasing liquid caustic soda inventory, and with high supply levels, there is a possibility of further price reductions [3].

Group 1: Main Points and Strategy Overview - The latest futures price of caustic soda is 2580 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.78%; the price of Shandong 32% caustic soda is 2406.25 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 15.38%; the price of Shandong 50% caustic soda is 1250 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.41% [5]. - China's caustic soda production is 820,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%; North China's production is 270,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.11%; Northwest China's production is 220,000 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 4.44% [5]. - China's caustic soda operating rate is 81.9%, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.8%; Shandong's operating rate is 0.89, with a week-on-week increase of 2.01% [5]. - The inventory of liquid caustic soda is 378,300 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 6.03%; the inventory of flake caustic soda is 22,100 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 3.27%; Shandong's inventory is 29,500 tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 17.6% [5]. - The alumina operating rate is 86.23%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2%; Shandong's alumina operating rate is 88.39%, with no change from the previous week; the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.52%, with a week-on-week increase of 1.99%; the chemical pulp operating rate is 86.4%, with a week-on-week increase of 6.27%; the printing and dyeing operating rate is 65.76%, with no change from the previous week [5]. - Shandong's chlor-alkali profit is 240.09 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 35.17%; Northwest China's chlor-alkali profit is 525.05 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.79% [5]. Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Review - The report presents the historical trends of caustic soda futures prices, spot prices, basis, and other indicators through multiple charts [8][11][13][16][19][20][24][27][28][29][30]. Group 3: Caustic Soda Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - The report shows the historical trends of caustic soda capacity utilization, device loss, inventory, and other indicators through multiple charts [33][36][38][40][56][58][60][62][64][66][67][68][69][70][73]. - Supply-side positives: Formosa Plastics will conduct large-scale maintenance from the 16th to the 23rd, which will have a short-term driving effect on the surrounding area; Minxiang and Dadi have fully loaded their 50% caustic soda production; Guangxi alumina plants will start to stockpile caustic soda in October [75][76]. - Supply-side negatives: The FOB export transaction price of caustic soda in East China is between 390 - 410, and the transaction price of liquid caustic soda in Northeast Asia is between 410 - 420; Haili has fully loaded its production capacity; Binzhou's maintenance has been postponed; Weiqiao has vehicle queuing; Tianjin Bohua's device will be fully loaded in the second half of the month, and attention should be paid to Wenfeng's procurement [75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a certain range. The high - price caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - According to Steel Union data, the weekly output of caustic soda this week is 818,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.9% (a decrease of 1.5 percentage points). According to Baichuan data, the output of liquid caustic soda is 824,200 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the output of flake caustic soda is 104,600 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to last week. There are more maintenance activities this week [3]. Inventory - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the total inventory of liquid caustic soda factories nationwide is 243,000 tons (in terms of 100% purity), a 0.4% increase compared to last week. According to Longzhong data, the in - factory inventory of liquid caustic soda (samples of fixed liquid caustic soda with 200,000 tons and above) is 378,300 wet tons, a 6.02% increase compared to last week [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is 328 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease compared to last week. This week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda weakens, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increases, and the overall profit of chlor - alkali enterprises decreases slightly [3]. Demand - **Alumina**: Recently, the continuous decline in the prices of domestic and overseas alumina has continuously narrowed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises. Except for regular maintenance, insufficient supply of domestic ores, and the impact of heavy rain, there are no signs of large - scale production cuts among domestic enterprises. Coupled with the continuous import of overseas supplies in the later period, the support for spot prices from the supply side is weak in the short term [3]. - **Viscose staple fiber**: The market price of viscose staple fiber has remained stable this week [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a range. The high - price liquid caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [5]. Caustic Soda Futures Market - **Futures prices**: On September 19, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts are 2,723 yuan/ton, 2,734 yuan/ton, and 2,641 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.06%, 1.64%, and 2.36% respectively [5]. - **Monthly spreads**: The monthly spreads of (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) are - 11, 93, and - 82 respectively, with daily changes of 11, - 17, and 6 respectively [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of 05, 09, and 01 contracts (Shandong Jinling) are - 317, - 328, and - 235 respectively, with daily changes of - 55, - 44, and - 61 respectively [5]. Spot Prices - **32% caustic soda**: The prices of most brands in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 2.2% [7]. - **50% caustic soda**: The prices of most brands remain unchanged, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 1.5% [8]. - **Flake caustic soda**: The market prices in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025 [8]. Price Spreads - Most of the caustic soda brand/regional price spreads remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for the 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong), which increased by 50 yuan/ton [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views - PVC: The PVC market fluctuates mainly with macro - sentiment. The supply is abundant as domestic PVC device overhauls decrease and new production devices increase. Downstream demand remains weak, with low - level开工 of downstream products and mainly rigid - demand procurement. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak due to Indian policies. Social inventory is accumulating, and there is pressure on the futures price from hedging [3]. - Caustic Soda: The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. The supply from chlor - alkali enterprises is at a relatively high level. The main downstream in Shandong, alumina factories, has stable purchase prices and increasing delivery volumes. Non - aluminum downstream industries have increased开工, with rigid - demand procurement. Cost support remains, and the chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary according to Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4888 yuan/ton (+31), the East China basis is - 218 yuan/ton (- 11), and the South China basis is - 128 yuan/ton (- 31) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4670 yuan/ton (+20), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4760 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The blue carbon price is 630 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2780 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is - 14 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 421 yuan/ton (- 22), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 671 yuan/ton (- 43), and the PVC export profit is 9.7 dollars/ton (- 5.0) [1]. - Inventory and开工: The PVC in - factory inventory is 31.6 tons (+0.4), the social inventory is 53.3 tons (+1.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 80.29% (+2.64%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 77.20% (+4.61%), and the overall PVC开工 rate is 79.39% (+3.21%) [1]. - Downstream orders: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 67.1 tons (- 2.5) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2590 yuan/ton (+14), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 129 yuan/ton (- 14) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1360 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1728 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 824.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 532.53 yuan/ton (- 10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1418.45 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 35.68 tons (- 3.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 83.40% (- 0.80%) [2]. - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate is 84.38% (- 1.20%), the dyeing开工 rate in East China is 65.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 87.77% (+0.67%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: The number of domestic PVC device overhauls continues to decrease, and new production devices are increasing, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream product开工 remains low, with enterprises purchasing only for rigid - demand. The raw material restocking willingness during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season needs attention. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is weak due to Indian policies [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of PVC continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high. The futures warehouse receipts are increasing, and there is pressure on the futures price from hedging [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The开工 rate of chlor - alkali enterprises is slightly increasing and at a high level in the same period [3]. - Demand: The main downstream in Shandong, alumina factories, has stable purchase prices and increasing delivery volumes. Non - aluminum downstream industries have increased开工, with rigid - demand procurement. Attention should be paid to the restocking rhythm during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season and the production start - up rhythm of alumina in Guangxi [3]. - Cost and profit: The electricity price in Shandong has a slight increase in September, and there is some resistance from downstream after the reduction of liquid chlorine subsidies. It is expected that liquid chlorine subsidies will continue to increase, and cost support remains. The chlor - alkali profit is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Fluctuate with macro - sentiment - Inter - delivery: Long V01 and short V05 to capture price fluctuations - Inter - variety: No strategy Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see

Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. Currently, there is insufficient driving force, with the market in a state of expected game. There is no sufficient driving force for an upward trend, but there is also no driving force for a downward trend in the spot market for now [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 01 contract futures price is 2610, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 870, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price converted to the futures contract is 2719, and the basis is 109 [2]. - In Shandong, the liquid caustic soda market remained stable overall. As orders were shipped, it temporarily supported the market. In southwestern Shandong, the high - price sales of individual enterprises slowed down, and prices declined slightly. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory of caustic soda plants [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda come from exports and alumina. In terms of exports, the new production capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea have led to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia. The export profit has not expanded, the export orders have not improved, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak, resulting in insufficient driving force for the rise of caustic soda. In terms of alumina, the high - production and high - inventory pattern has continuously compressed profits, and the supply of marginal production capacity may be affected by profits in the future. Although there are expected new production capacities of 3.6 million tons in Guangxi by the end of this year and 2 million tons of Orient Hope in early next year, the market is difficult to achieve a resonance between futures and spot before the stockpiling starts [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [4].

Group 1 - The domestic liquid caustic soda market is stable with acceptable transaction volumes, particularly in Shandong where demand remains decent and transportation in Tianjin has resumed, alleviating some shipping pressures for chlor-alkali enterprises [1] - The main prices for 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong are between 850-915 RMB/ton, while the 50% liquid caustic soda prices range from 1340-1360 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - As of Thursday, the national average operating rate for major sample enterprises is 86.09%, down 1.25 percentage points from last week due to increased maintenance of chlor-alkali facilities [2] - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China decreased by 18.81% to 189,650 tons as of August 20, while Shandong's inventory fell by 19.31% to 67,700 tons, indicating improved purchasing activity from downstream sectors [2] Group 3 - Following the recent military parade, transportation disruptions are expected to ease, allowing liquid caustic soda companies to resume normal supply to downstream markets, with short-term market support from demand [3] - The current low inventory levels in Shandong and the recovery in non-aluminum downstream demand are likely to keep spot prices firm, with increased purchasing activity anticipated as traders prepare for upcoming demand [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report suggests that it is not advisable to chase short positions in caustic soda. The market will remain volatile in the short - term. Currently, caustic soda has insufficient upward drivers, but there is also no immediate downward driver for the spot. The futures are at a discount to the spot, and the valuation of the near - month contracts already incorporates the expectations of a decline in 32% caustic soda spot prices and delivery discounts [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 01 contract futures price is 2612, the cheapest deliverable in Shandong is 870, the basis is 2719, and the spot price of 32% caustic soda is 107 [1]. Spot News - Taking Shandong as a benchmark, the liquid caustic soda market in the province remained stable today. Due to the summit and military parade, transportation was hindered, causing some enterprises' inventories to increase. However, order shipments temporarily supported the market. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory changes of caustic soda plants [1]. Market Condition Analysis - **Upward Driver Constraints**: The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda are exports and alumina. In terms of exports, new capacity from Vinythai and high supplies from Japan and South Korea have led to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia. Export profits have not expanded, export orders have not improved, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak. Regarding alumina, the high - production and high - inventory situation has continuously compressed profits, and marginal capacity supply may be affected by profits in the future. Although there are expected new capacities of 3.6 million tons in Guangxi by the end of this year and 2 million tons from Orient Hope at the beginning of next year, before the inventory - building starts, the market is difficult to achieve simultaneous movement of futures and spot [1][2]. - **Overall Situation**: Currently, there is an expectation game in the caustic soda market. Before alumina starts inventory - building for new production and export conditions improve, the upward driver is insufficient. However, there is also no downward driver for the spot. In terms of valuation, futures are at a discount to the spot, and the near - month contracts' valuation already includes the expectations of a decline in 32% caustic soda spot prices and delivery discounts, so it is not advisable to chase short positions [1][2]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral trend [1][3].