Core Viewpoint -航锦科技's stock price has shown a positive trend recently, with a notable increase in trading volume and a diverse revenue stream from semiconductor electronics and basic chemical materials [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 8,航锦科技's stock rose by 2.04%, reaching 20.48 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.44 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.08% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 6.11%, with a 6.33% rise over the last five trading days and a 2.45% increase over the last 20 days, although it has decreased by 7.04% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025,航锦科技 reported a revenue of 3.287 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.189 million CNY, a decrease of 62.72% compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025,航锦科技 had 124,100 shareholders, an increase of 5.16% from the previous period, with an average of 5,302 circulating shares per shareholder, down by 4.91% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 641 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 74.478 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the fourth largest circulating shareholder is the Penghua CSI Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF, holding 7.9641 million shares as a new shareholder [3]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth largest shareholder, holding 6.7854 million shares, a decrease of 7.1569 million shares from the previous period [3].

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 3、液碱：景气度触底，静待行业供给端改善 2025年底，液碱单吨毛利润为744元，位于2021年以来较低水平，行业景气度触底。供给端，2025年我国 烧碱总产能为5166万吨，同比增长2.46%，其中行业前六大企业产能合计666万吨，行业CR6集中度仅为 12.9%，产能格局较为分散。液碱行业景气度触底带来成本端竞争加剧，"反内卷"背景下落后产能加速出 清，供给端改善有望驱动行业景气度上行。 4、PVC：基建地产需求待复苏，"反内卷"叠加环保趋严推动产业结构转型升级 PVC下游消费结构中（消费量口径），建材行业仍是PVC主要应用领域，管材管件及型材门窗合计占2025 年消费量的41%，表明PVC需求与地产、基建行业密切相关。受基建地产景 ...

智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，国家针对"反内卷"、稳增长持续发声，工信部即将推出石化 化工行业稳增长工作方案，有望推动落后产能淘汰、引领行业健康发展，相关龙头有望持续受益于行业 供需格局改善。展望未来，政策将聚焦"反内卷"和老旧产能淘汰，叠加电石、氯碱等高耗能行业盈利能 力触底，成本端竞争加剧有望加速老旧装置退出，将有助于行业供给的收缩和集中度的提高，同时加速 推进装置大型化、现代化，有助于提升电石、氯碱行业的整体竞争力。 光大证券主要观点如下： 1、"反内卷"政策发布，成本端约束有望加速高耗能行业出清 近期国家针对"反内卷"、稳增长持续发声，叠加工信部推出石化化工行业稳增长工作方案，有望推动化 工行业落后产能淘汰、引领行业健康发展。2025年7月18日，工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋表示，将 实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推动重点行业着力调结构、 优供给、淘汰落后产能。2025年7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，强调纵深推进全国统一大市场建 设，推动市场竞争秩序持续优化，依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治理。2025年9月25 日，工业和信息化部等7部 ...

2026 年 1 月 7 日 行业研究 电石、氯碱工业："反内卷"加速供给侧出清，龙头竞争力有望提升 ——石化化工反内卷稳增长系列之十二 石油化工/基础化工 增持（维持） 作者 分析师：赵乃迪 执业证书编号：S0930517050005 010-57378026 zhaond@ebscn.com 分析师：周家诺 执业证书编号：S0930523070007 021-52523675 zhoujianuo@ebscn.com 分析师：蔡嘉豪 执业证书编号：S0930523070003 021-52523800 caijiahao@ebscn.com 分析师：王礼沫 执业证书编号：S0930524040002 010-56513142 wanglimo@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 磷化工：磷铵整体开工率偏低，头部企业 资源充足盈利可观——石化化工反内卷 稳增长系列之十一（2025-07-31） 要点 1、"反内卷"政策发布，成本端约束有望加速高耗能行业出清 近期国家针对"反内卷"、稳增长持续发声，叠加工信部推出石化化工行业 稳增长工作方案，有望推动化工行业落后产 ...

"反内卷"政策发布，成本端约束有望加速高耗能行业出清 智通财经APP获悉，光大证券发布研报称，国家针对"反内卷"、稳增长持续发声，工信部即将推出石化 化工行业稳增长工作方案，有望推动落后产能淘汰、引领行业健康发展，相关龙头有望持续受益于行业 供需格局改善。 光大证券主要观点如下： 近期国家针对"反内卷"、稳增长持续发声，叠加工信部推出石化化工行业稳增长工作方案，有望推动化 工行业落后产能淘汰、引领行业健康发展。2025年7月18日，工业和信息化部总工程师谢少锋表示，将 实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案，推动重点行业着力调结构、 优供给、淘汰落后产能。2025年7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，强调纵深推进全国统一大市场建 设，推动市场竞争秩序持续优化，依法依规治理企业无序竞争，推进重点行业产能治理。2025年9月25 日，工业和信息化部等7部门印发《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案（2025-2026年）》，该方案提出 2025-2026年，石化化工行业增加值年均增长5%以上，经济效益企稳回升，产业科技创新能力显著增 强，精细化延伸、数字赋能和本质安全水平持续提高，减污降碳协同增效 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently in a situation of supply contraction, weak demand, and improving profits. Liquid caustic soda is expected to stabilize in the short term, and prices in Shandong may rise slightly. The futures market is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in Shandong spot prices and the cost - side logic transformation caused by liquid chlorine price fluctuations [4]. - For trading strategies, a unilateral long position in caustic soda is recommended as prices may rise steadily; for arbitrage and options, it is advisable to wait and see [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: This week, the number of caustic soda plant overhauls increased. The national sample enterprise operating load rate dropped to 88.47% (a 1.37% week - on - week decrease), and the output of 100% equivalent caustic soda decreased to 856,300 tons (a 1.52% week - on - week decrease), slightly alleviating the short - term supply pressure [4]. - Demand side: The operating rate of the core downstream alumina industry dropped to 80.29% (a 1.08% week - on - week decrease), weakening the support for caustic soda. Non - aluminum downstream industries such as viscose staple fiber saw a slight increase in operating rates, but overall procurement remained at a just - in - time level, and most purchases were made at low prices, resulting in a lukewarm market [4]. - Inventory side: There was a significant differentiation in inventory. For liquid caustic soda, the overall sample inventory in East China decreased by 10.25%, but the factory inventory in Shandong increased by 6.01%. For flake caustic soda, due to shipping issues and hoarding by traders, the social inventory in East China surged by 55.56%, and traders faced greater pressure to sell [4]. - Profit side: The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali (ECU) was significantly repaired due to the sharp rebound in liquid chlorine prices, despite the decline in caustic soda prices. The profit of enterprises with self - owned power plants in Shandong increased by 49.18% to 160.2 yuan/ton, which may support manufacturers' willingness to maintain production [4]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Caustic soda prices may rise steadily [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [5]. - Options: Wait and see [5]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants was at a high level, and prices continued to decline. From November 14 to December 6, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong decreased from 730 yuan/ton to 675 yuan/ton [7][9]. - As of December 18, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in China was 464,700 tons (wet tons), a 1.66% week - on - week increase and a 52.34% year - on - year increase. The capacity utilization ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 29.41%, a 0.41% week - on - week increase. Different regions showed different inventory trends [11]. - The supply contradiction in the alumina spot market became more prominent. Although the operating capacity of alumina was basically stable this week, the inventory of alumina at the electrolytic aluminum end continued to rise. The supply contradiction is expected to continue to be reflected in limited spot transactions [15][18]. - This week, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 84.7%, a 1.5% week - on - week decrease. Different regions had different changes in load [20]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Caustic soda futures price: Various indicators such as price trends, basis, open interest, and warehouse receipts of SH01 contracts are presented [24]. - 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are shown [27]. - 50% caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 50% caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are presented [30]. - Flake caustic soda spot price: The price trends of flake caustic soda in Shandong, Southwest, Northwest, Guangdong, and Guangxi are shown [32]. - Caustic soda variety spread: The price spreads between different types of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong are presented [34]. - Caustic soda regional spread: The price spreads of caustic soda between different regions are presented [37]. - Caustic soda profit: The profit trends of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the price trends of liquid chlorine, are shown [39]. Inventory Data - Caustic soda inventory: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda are presented [41]. - Caustic soda inventory by province: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu are presented [45]. Production Data - Caustic soda production: The production trends of caustic soda and solid caustic soda are presented [48]. - Caustic soda production by province: The production trends of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are presented [50]. New Capacity and Overhaul - New capacity: In 2025, a total of 2.1 million tons of new caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production, and some projects have already been successfully launched. In the alumina industry, a large amount of new capacity is expected to be put into production at the end of this year and next year [51][52][64]. - Plant overhauls: A list of caustic soda plant overhauls in different regions and enterprises is presented [54]. Consumption Data - Caustic soda consumption: The demand and weekly consumption trends of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda are presented [56][57]. Alumina - related Data - Alumina operating capacity: The production, operating capacity, and operating rate trends of alumina are presented [60][61]. Downstream Industry Data - Viscose staple fiber: This week, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.52%, a 1.75% week - on - week increase [66]. - Printing and dyeing industry: As of September 18, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, remaining flat compared to the previous period. The operating rates in different regions had different trends, and the overall market atmosphere was stable [70]. Export Data - Caustic soda export: The export volume, FOB price, and export profit trends of caustic soda are presented [72][73]. - Caustic soda export destinations: The export volume trends of caustic soda to Australia, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam are presented [76]. - Overseas alumina new capacity: In 2025, it is estimated that 4.5 million tons of new alumina capacity will be put into production overseas, and most of the new alumina plants in Indonesia have already been put into operation, and the caustic soda procurement has been completed [81].

S BE KABHA 世界500强投资企业 E 贸期货有限公 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 JUI rts 199 热线 000 - 400 th ll 官 方 网 站 1.00 1513, 400-8888-598 www.itf.com.cn tm Prix | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[ 2012 ]31号 | ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 陈一凡 | 投资咨询证:Z0015946 2025/12/25 从业资格证:F3054270 | | 指标 | | | 2025/12/24 2025/12/23 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | 山东 | 235 | 235 | 0 | | | 原盐 | 江苏 | 260 | 260 | 0 | | | | 西北 | 180 | 180 | 0 | | | 电石 | 山东 | 250 | 250 | 0 | | | | 内蒙 | 3415 | 3415 | 0 | | | | 山东 | 100 | 100 | 0 | 液 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Ordos Dalate Economic Development Zone is actively facilitating supply-demand connections to resolve production and sales bottlenecks for enterprises, exemplified by a recent collaboration with Yili Chemical Company that resulted in an additional 400 tons of orders per month [1] - The development zone has organized various activities such as supply-demand matching meetings and product promotion events, focusing on key industries like coal chemical, new energy, and new materials, to help enterprises expand order channels and address production-sales disconnection issues [1] - Specific achievements include a supply intention worth 1.2 million yuan for Inner Mongolia Jianheng Energy Technology Co., Ltd. and sales of products valued at 14.3 million yuan for Ordos Lutai New Materials Technology Development Co., Ltd. [1] Group 2 - The development zone is enhancing policy support as a core strategy for enterprise development, having created a list of eight types of beneficial policies, including those for technological innovation, and disseminated over 1,000 promotional materials to more than 100 enterprises [2] - A platform for supply-demand matching has been established to address the "order difficulty" faced by enterprises, creating a long-term mechanism for production-sales connections that involves government, enterprises, and market operations [2] - Financial services are being optimized to alleviate financing challenges for enterprises, with a comprehensive financial service system being constructed, resulting in loans amounting to 350 million yuan for enterprises in the park this year [2] Group 3 - The Ordos Dalate Economic Development Zone plans to continue focusing on the core needs of enterprises, enhancing support services, and introducing more precise measures to resolve development challenges, thereby fostering a high-quality business environment and stimulating regional economic growth [3]

International News - Brazil has canceled the temporary anti-dumping tax on nylon filament imported from China, specifically from Yiwu Huading Nylon Co. Ltd. This decision was made by the Brazilian Foreign Trade Commission (GECEX) due to public interest and is effective immediately [1]. Domestic News - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, a key raw material for lithium batteries, has surged dramatically, exceeding 170,000 yuan per ton. This represents an increase of over 240% compared to the year's low of 47,000 yuan per ton recorded in July [1]. - The market prices for polypropylene and polyethylene as of December 11 are as follows: - Polypropylene prices range from 5,900 to 6,900 yuan per ton across various regions [2]. - Polyethylene prices range from 6,540 to 10,250 yuan per ton, depending on the type and region [2]. - The market prices for gasoline and diesel on December 11 are reported as follows: - Gasoline prices range from 7,239 to 7,633 yuan per ton [2]. - Diesel prices range from 6,421 to 6,700 yuan per ton [2]. - The market prices for caustic soda on December 11 show a range of 720 to 1,310 yuan per ton, depending on the concentration and region [3]. - Methanol prices on December 11 vary from 1,520 to 2,270 yuan per ton across different markets [4]. - The prices for various chemical commodities on December 11 indicate slight fluctuations, with sulfuric acid priced between 985 and 1,045 yuan per ton, and acetone ranging from 4,060 to 4,130 yuan per ton [5].

中原期货分析称，近期山东液碱市场受库存下滑带动，低价出现小幅上调，虽整体供应仍显宽松，但山 东省外订单逐步发货缓解了部分市场压力，但当前并无装置因成本因素降负调整。预估北方液碱市场部 分低价呈试探性上涨，多数企业以稳价调整为主。关注氯碱装置波动以及液氯价格。整体来看，供需格 局偏弱，烧碱2601合约继续偏弱运行，偏空思路对待。 东吴期货表示，烧碱兑现累库跌价，弱现实延续。且由于液氯价格至少到元旦放假前还会维持偏强，碱 厂目前还没有减产的压力，供给不减产则意味着还不能去库涨价。此外，氧化铝现货加速下跌，虽有矿 价下跌预期，但氧化铝的减产预期仍然在加强。若一季度氧化铝开始兑现减产，则是在非铝需求淡季上 雪上加霜。考虑到春节前需求最弱，而供给最高，做空时间仍较为充足，到液氯开始出现需求转弱、价 格大跌前，仍建议继续持有空单。 南华期货（603093）指出，华北山东地区液碱出货情况依旧不佳，虽下游需求稍有好转，但供应较为充 足，企业出货仍有压力，近日省内企业与外围氧化铝下游签单完成，但发货时间未定，当前企业低价出 货为主。河北地区因后期有新增产能，当地下游需求情况温和，企业出货一般，价格低位维稳。山西地 区有氯碱企业 ...