| ફ્તિ સિ | 本期价格 | 较上期涨跌幅 | 较基期涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (单位:元/吨) | | | | 陕西 | 237.30 | -2.03% | 12.24% | | 安徽 | 252.80 | 0.73% | 11.00% | | 江苏 | 203.69 | -2.45% | -33.09% | | 湖北 | 220.00 | 2.33% | -6.38% | | 江西 | 265.27 | -1.03% | 16.75% | | 河南 | 287.61 | -0.22% | 24.09% | | 重庆 | 250.97 | -0.35% | -24.94% | | 新疆 | 194.83 | -4.47% | 90.51% | | 河北 | 197.09 | -0.41% | 7.11% | | 山东 | 241.82 | -0.84% | 0.76% | | 湖南 | 260.80 | -5.51% | -15.05% | | 肯海 | | | | | 石南 | 341.32 | 0.98% | -37.44% | | 四川 | 295 ...

烧碱周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第二章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本周出现华北地区某大型氧化铝厂2期焙烧炉全部停产检修、导致在产品库存积压，其前端投料暂停的各类传言。等待下周验证。 烧碱供需双弱。供应端装置负荷微降。氯碱开工负荷率下滑0.81个百分点至90.63%，烧碱折百产量88.14万吨，环比减少0.89%。虽 然部分装置检修带来供应微减，但整体供应依然充足。需求端分化运行，刚需收尾。主力下游氧化铝运行产能回落至75.42%（-2.34 个百分点），需求支撑减弱；粘胶短纤开工率虽提升至83.78%，但受春节临近影响，下游备货基本结束，整体接货意愿转淡。库存 去化，亏损扩大。上游压力缓解。山东32%液碱工厂库存降至10.98万吨，环比大幅下降8.88%。贸易商因避险情绪维持低库存，社 会库存变动不大。利润严重亏损，挺价意愿强。山东氯碱企 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiahuan Energy, emphasizes its commitment to a circular economy model, which is central to its development strategy and aims to enhance resource and energy efficiency while improving competitiveness and profitability [2]. Group 1: Circular Economy Model - The company is a key player in the China Chemical New Materials (Jiaxing) Park, focusing on establishing a circular economy that integrates energy and chemical industries [2]. - The circular economy includes both internal and external cycles, with internal cycles involving the development of the chlor-alkali industry and polymer materials (VCM/PVC) through cogeneration [2]. - The development of polymer materials positively impacts the chlor-alkali industry and self-generated power advantages, contributing to the company's growth [2]. Group 2: Resource and Energy Utilization - The company has developed a series of fatty alcohol (acid) products, which have become significant growth units due to the advantages of self-produced steam and by-product hydrogen from the chlor-alkali industry [2]. - The external cycle involves supplying steam, liquid alkali, desalinated water, and hydrogen, while recycling condensate and related materials to enhance the value of the industrial chain [2]. Group 3: Operational Performance - The company reported stable performance for the year, with no significant seasonal variations in operating results during the first three quarters [2].

Market Overview - As of January 23, 2026, the main PVC futures contract closed at 4921 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline in the K-line and an increase in open interest by 48,696 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - During the week of January 19-23, the PVC futures opened at 4806 CNY/ton, reached a high of 4926 CNY/ton, and a low of 4708 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly price change of 2.07% [1] Price Trends - On January 22, the spot prices for PVC in Hangzhou stabilized, with slight increases in transaction prices. The prices for different types of PVC ranged from 4500 to 4720 CNY/ton [2] - The domestic PVC powder operating rate decreased by 1.10 percentage points to 77.98% [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Yibin's 200,000-ton facility has restarted, while Wanhua's 500,000-ton facility has been affected by shutdowns, leading to little change in PVC capacity utilization [2] - The social inventory of PVC has reached a record high, following the strength of the chemical sector. However, the overall demand remains weak due to seasonal factors, with domestic operating rates rising to 80% [3] - PVC production companies are maintaining high supply levels, but domestic demand is in a traditional off-season, leading to rapid accumulation of industry inventory [3]

Market Overview - The main contract for caustic soda futures closed at 1939.0 CNY/ton, experiencing a decline of 2.02% [1] - As of January 20, the top 20 futures companies held a total of 224,200 long positions and 254,900 short positions, resulting in a long-to-short ratio of 0.88. The net position increased by 2,131 contracts to -30,700 contracts compared to the previous day [1] Production and Supply - Last week, the production of caustic soda from sample enterprises with a capacity of 20,000 tons or more was approximately 853,000 tons, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.47% and a year-on-year increase of 4.28% [1] - A 170,000-ton facility in East China experienced a short shutdown, while a 650,000-ton facility in East China and a 300,000-ton facility in South China resumed operations, leading to a slight increase in caustic soda production capacity utilization, which remains at a high operating level [1] Industry Sentiment - According to Fangzheng Zhongqi Futures, the market is under pressure from high supply, weak demand, and high inventory, making short-term improvements unlikely. Caustic soda prices are expected to continue operating at low levels, with resistance around 2130-2150 CNY/ton and support to be monitored around 1900-2000 CNY/ton [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that the caustic soda market continues to exhibit a weak trend, with ongoing inventory accumulation and significant inventory pressure. A large alumina enterprise in Shandong reduced the price of liquid caustic soda by 15 CNY to 615 CNY. The price of liquid chlorine remains firm at around 300 CNY, maintaining acceptable integrated profits, while caustic soda production remains high. Although downstream alumina operations are at high levels, the industry is generally experiencing losses, and future production cuts need to be monitored [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trading atmosphere in the domestic liquid caustic soda market is dull today. The prices of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Hebei regions have decreased, the price of 48% liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu region has decreased, and the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region has increased. The enthusiasm of downstream buyers in Shandong region is low, and recently some warehouse receipt goods have entered the market, impacting the market price. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda has decreased, the trading of 50% liquid caustic soda is stable, and the price remains unchanged. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong region today is 650 - 760 yuan/ton. The purchase price of liquid caustic soda by a large local downstream alumina factory is 645 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong region is 1050 - 1210 yuan/ton, a decline from the previous working day's average price. The game between long and short positions is fierce, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Price Changes of Raw Materials and Products - **Raw Salt**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Northwest remain unchanged at 240, 260, and 180 respectively [1] - **Calcium Carbide**: The prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remain unchanged at 250 and 3415 respectively [1] - **Liquid Chlorine**: The price in Shandong increases by 50 from 200 to 250, while the prices in Jiangsu and Northwest remain unchanged at 250 and - 100 respectively [1] - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong remain unchanged at 2156, 2438, and 1075 respectively [1] - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong remain unchanged at 2160, 1280, and 1300 respectively [1] - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: The prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong, and Southwest remain unchanged at 3050, 2700, 2750, and 3375 respectively [1] - **PVC**: The price in Shandong remains unchanged at 3450 [1] 3.2 Futures and Basis - **Futures Main Contract**: The closing price in Inner Mongolia changes from 5550,2093 to 5550,2057, with a change of 0, - 36 [1] - **Basis**: The basis in Shandong increases by 38 from - 62 to - 24, and the basis in Jiangsu increases by 49 from 258 to 307 [1] 3.3 Price Differences and Profits - **Price Difference between 50% Caustic Soda and 32% Caustic Soda**: The price difference in Shandong remains unchanged at 4 [1] - **Price Difference between Caustic Soda Flakes and 50% Caustic Soda**: The price difference in Guangdong decreases by 31 from 48 to 16 [1] - **Regional Price Difference of 50% Caustic Soda**: The price difference between the east and Shandong remains unchanged at 515 [1] - **Regional Price Difference of Caustic Soda Flakes**: The price differences between Southwest and Inner Mongolia, and between Southwest and Shandong remain unchanged at 250 and 700 respectively [1] - **Chlor - alkali Profit**: The profit in Shandong increases by 1 from - 15 to - 14, and the profit in the Northwest decreases by 31 from 349 to 318 [1] 3.4 Electricity Price - The electricity prices in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remain unchanged at 0.63 and 0.44 respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint -航锦科技's stock price has shown a positive trend recently, with a notable increase in trading volume and a diverse revenue stream from semiconductor electronics and basic chemical materials [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On January 8,航锦科技's stock rose by 2.04%, reaching 20.48 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.44 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.08% [1]. - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 6.11%, with a 6.33% rise over the last five trading days and a 2.45% increase over the last 20 days, although it has decreased by 7.04% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025,航锦科技 reported a revenue of 3.287 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.38%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 15.189 million CNY, a decrease of 62.72% compared to the previous year [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025,航锦科技 had 124,100 shareholders, an increase of 5.16% from the previous period, with an average of 5,302 circulating shares per shareholder, down by 4.91% [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 641 million CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 74.478 million CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 4: Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the fourth largest circulating shareholder is the Penghua CSI Segmented Chemical Industry Theme ETF, holding 7.9641 million shares as a new shareholder [3]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited is the fifth largest shareholder, holding 6.7854 million shares, a decrease of 7.1569 million shares from the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent "anti-involution" policies and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's (MIIT) initiatives are expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacities in high-energy-consuming industries, promoting healthier development in the chemical sector [4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The MIIT announced a new round of stability growth plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aimed at structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacities [4]. - The "anti-involution" policies emphasize the need for orderly market competition and the governance of chaotic corporate behaviors, which will further drive capacity management in key industries [4]. - The petrochemical industry is projected to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value-added from 2025 to 2026, with significant improvements in economic efficiency and technological innovation capabilities [4]. Group 2: Industry Analysis - Calcium Carbide - By 2025, China's total calcium carbide production capacity is expected to be 41.66 million tons, a decrease of 7.1% from the peak of 44.83 million tons in 2022 [5]. - The top six companies in the calcium carbide industry have a combined capacity of 9.8 million tons, resulting in a CR6 concentration of only 23.5%, indicating a fragmented capacity structure [5]. - The apparent consumption of calcium carbide is projected to be 24.90 million tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.45% due to weak downstream PVC demand [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Liquid Alkali - The single-ton gross profit for liquid alkali is expected to be 744 yuan by the end of 2025, marking a low point since 2021 [7]. - The total production capacity for caustic soda is projected to reach 51.66 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%, with a CR6 concentration of only 12.9% [7]. - The current low industry profitability and intensified competition are anticipated to lead to the accelerated elimination of outdated capacities, improving supply-side conditions [7]. Group 4: Industry Analysis - PVC - The construction and real estate sectors remain the primary application areas for PVC, accounting for 41% of the total consumption in 2025, indicating a close relationship between PVC demand and these industries [8]. - The apparent consumption of PVC is expected to be approximately 18.66 million tons in 2025, a decline of 7.1% compared to 2020, with recovery in demand still awaited [8]. - The total PVC production capacity is projected to be 30.38 million tons in 2025, with the top six companies holding a combined capacity of 7.89 million tons, resulting in a CR6 concentration of 26% [8].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on "anti-involution" and steady growth, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) set to launch a work plan for the petrochemical industry, which is expected to promote the elimination of outdated capacity and lead to healthier industry development [1] Group 1: Policy and Industry Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy aims to accelerate the clearance of high-energy-consuming industries due to cost constraints, with the MIIT planning to implement a new round of work plans for key industries including petrochemicals [2][3] - The work plan for the petrochemical industry (2025-2026) targets an average annual growth of over 5% in added value, stabilization of economic benefits, and significant enhancement of technological innovation capabilities [1][2] Group 2: Industry Specifics - In the calcium carbide sector, total production capacity in China is projected to be 41.66 million tons by 2025, a decrease of 7.1% from the peak in 2022, with the top six companies holding only 23.5% of the market share [3] - The liquid alkali industry is expected to see a total production capacity of 51.66 million tons by 2025, with a low industry concentration of 12.9% among the top six companies, indicating a fragmented market [4] - The PVC industry, heavily tied to the construction and real estate sectors, is projected to have a consumption volume of approximately 18.66 million tons in 2025, reflecting a 7.1% decline from 2020 due to low demand [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the petrochemical and basic chemical industry [1] Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the elimination of excess supply in high-energy-consuming industries, enhancing the competitiveness of leading companies in the industry [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has introduced a growth plan for the petrochemical and chemical industry, aiming for an average annual growth of over 5% in value-added from 2025 to 2026 [3] - The report highlights that the supply-side reforms in the calcium carbide and chlor-alkali industries are likely to improve industry concentration and overall competitiveness [5][6] Summary by Sections Section 1: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy aims to eliminate outdated production capacity in high-energy-consuming sectors, including calcium carbide and chlor-alkali, which is expected to lead to a healthier industry development [3][4] - The government has set strict controls on new capacity in overproduced sectors, which will facilitate the modernization and large-scale development of production facilities [4] Section 2: Calcium Carbide Industry - The total production capacity of calcium carbide in China is projected to be 41.66 million tons by 2025, a decrease of 7.1% from the peak in 2022 [5] - The apparent consumption of calcium carbide is expected to decline by 6.45% year-on-year in 2025, reaching 24.9 million tons due to weak downstream PVC demand [5] - The introduction of the "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to enhance industry concentration and improve overall market conditions [5] Section 3: Chlor-alkali Industry - The total production capacity of caustic soda is expected to reach 51.66 million tons by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 2.46% [6] - The industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with a projected single-ton gross profit of 744 yuan, indicating a low level of profitability [6] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, leading to improvements in supply-side conditions [6] Section 4: PVC Industry - The apparent consumption of PVC is projected to be approximately 18.66 million tons in 2025, a decrease of 7.1% compared to 2020, primarily due to low demand from the construction and real estate sectors [7] - The total production capacity of PVC is expected to be 30.38 million tons, with a low industry concentration of 26% among the top six companies [7] - Stricter environmental regulations and the "anti-involution" policy are expected to drive structural transformation and upgrade within the industry [7] Section 5: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the calcium carbide-chlor-alkali-PVC industry chain, highlighting companies such as Luhua Technology, Chlor-alkali Chemical, and Xinjiang Tianye as potential beneficiaries of the improving supply-demand dynamics [8]