Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view, with the range of trend strength being integers in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [6] Core View of the Report - The sustainability of downstream inventory replenishment determines the sustainability of the caustic soda price rebound, and future attention should be paid to the delivery volume of Weiqiao [5] - Caustic soda still faces pressure in the later stage, and supply cuts are needed to balance supply and demand after downstream inventory replenishment [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On May 16, 2025, the futures price of the 09 contract was 2567, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 830, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong was converted to the futures price of 2594, and the basis was 27 [1] Spot News - Since May 16, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been increased by 15 yuan/ton, with the ex - factory price at 760 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - Short - term downstream inventory replenishment supports the rebound of caustic soda spot prices, but manufacturers do not follow the price increase, and the price difference between Weiqiao and the Shandong market narrows, which is bearish for caustic soda [3] - In the future, caustic soda will still be in a high - production pattern. In the second - quarter demand off - season, supply cuts are needed to balance supply and demand after downstream inventory replenishment [3] - In terms of demand, although the new alumina production capacity leads to a short - term increase in demand, profit losses lead to many manufacturer overhauls and shutdowns; non - aluminum demand is generally weak, and short - term demand in industries such as viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing may rebound month - on - month; exports can still strongly support caustic soda this year, but it mainly depends on the inventory rhythm [3] - From the supply side, there will still be new overhauls in May, but manufacturers' operating loads are generally high due to non - loss of profits; future attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply [3]

【市场状况分析】 五一期间，烧碱价格出现反弹，但考虑到二季度烧碱处于需求淡季，后期仍需压缩利润，供应减产才能 使得供需平衡。 需求层面，氧化铝低利润，叠加其原料烧碱库存高，虽然新增产能投放导致刚需上升，但短期对烧碱囤 货需求偏弱。非铝需求普遍偏弱，部分行业受贸易战影响较大，例如粘胶短纤、印染、纸浆造纸等行业都出 现明显的开工下滑。不过今年的出口方向仍能对烧碱起到很强支撑，但主要在于囤货节奏。贸易战使得外商 的采购非常谨慎，持续追高囤货的可能性较低。 从供应端看，烧碱后期 5 月份仍然存在新增检修，但由于利润不亏损，厂家负荷普遍处于高位。未来仍 要关注耗氯下游对烧碱供应的传导影响，虽然从一季度看，由于烧碱的高利润，耗氯下游的影响变得相当有 限。但后期烧碱和液氯若承压下行，边际装置供应将受到利润影响。 2025 年 5 月 6 日 烧碱：短期震荡，后期仍有压力 | | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约 ...