Core Viewpoint - The domestic liquid caustic soda market shows stable prices in multiple regions, with a notable price increase for 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, despite limited profitability for chlor-alkali enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The transaction volume in the domestic liquid caustic soda market is acceptable today, with prices stable in many areas and an increase in the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong [1]. - In Shandong, the main transaction price for 32% liquid caustic soda is between 770-865 RMB/ton, while for 50% liquid caustic soda, it is between 1270-1290 RMB/ton [1]. - The overall supply and demand situation in other regions remains stable, although some markets see a decline in the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase at current high prices [1]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of this Thursday, the national average operating load of sample enterprises is 85.44%, down 1.29 percentage points from last week, due to increased maintenance and production cuts in chlor-alkali facilities [2]. - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China increased to 173,300 tons, up 0.70% from September 10, driven by reduced production and active downstream procurement [2]. - In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda rose to 36,600 tons, an increase of 8.28% from September 10, indicating a higher overall inventory level due to low downstream purchasing activity [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The market continues to trend weakly, with increased supply and higher operating rates among sample manufacturers [3]. - The recent decline in domestic alumina prices has narrowed profit margins for domestic alumina enterprises, leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the North China region [3]. - In Shandong, due to the upcoming National Day holiday, there may be a delay in releasing liquid caustic soda inventory, and with high supply levels, there is a possibility of further price reductions [3].

Group 1 - The domestic liquid caustic soda market is stable with acceptable transaction volumes, particularly in Shandong where demand remains decent and transportation in Tianjin has resumed, alleviating some shipping pressures for chlor-alkali enterprises [1] - The main prices for 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong are between 850-915 RMB/ton, while the 50% liquid caustic soda prices range from 1340-1360 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - As of Thursday, the national average operating rate for major sample enterprises is 86.09%, down 1.25 percentage points from last week due to increased maintenance of chlor-alkali facilities [2] - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China decreased by 18.81% to 189,650 tons as of August 20, while Shandong's inventory fell by 19.31% to 67,700 tons, indicating improved purchasing activity from downstream sectors [2] Group 3 - Following the recent military parade, transportation disruptions are expected to ease, allowing liquid caustic soda companies to resume normal supply to downstream markets, with short-term market support from demand [3] - The current low inventory levels in Shandong and the recovery in non-aluminum downstream demand are likely to keep spot prices firm, with increased purchasing activity anticipated as traders prepare for upcoming demand [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Caustic Soda [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] 2. Market Conditions 2.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: The main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, fluctuated on August 28, 2025, closing at 2,692 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.37% from the previous settlement price. Trading volume decreased by 63,000 lots to 366,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 7,343 lots to 113,000 lots [2]. - **Variety Prices**: Among the 12 caustic soda futures contracts, only the Caustic Soda 2607 contract rose slightly by 0.18%, while the rest declined. The total open interest of the variety was 261,700 lots, a decrease of 12,871 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, decreased by 7,343 lots, with 98.92 million yuan of funds flowing out [5]. - **Related Quotes**: The put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed better than the call options today, with relatively low overall trading volume [7]. 2.2 Spot Market - In Shandong, the prices of 32% caustic soda remained mostly stable, with some companies with low inventories and good sales slightly increasing prices. The mainstream transaction prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda were 870 - 930 yuan/ton in southwestern Shandong, 840 - 890 yuan/ton in central and eastern Shandong, and 880 - 900 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in central and eastern Shandong was 1,340 - 1,380 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - As of August 28, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 379,600 wet tons, a 4.25% decrease from the previous period and a 28.84% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization ratio of the national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 21.73%, a 0.65% decrease from the previous period. The capacity utilization ratios in the northwest, north, and southwest regions increased, while those in the central, eastern, southern, and northeastern regions decreased [10][11]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The main caustic soda SH601 contract closed with a small negative line today, supported by the 10 - day moving average below [12]. 4. Market Outlook - Today, the main caustic soda futures contract, Caustic Soda 2601, continued to fluctuate weakly, while the spot price remained stable. This week, the inventory of sample enterprises continued to decline, with a 4.25% decrease from the previous period. Orders outside Shandong will be suspended due to a major event on September 3, and non - aluminum downstream industries are resisting high - priced goods, resulting in slower overall sales. In the eastern region, supply is tight due to equipment maintenance, which supports prices. Future price trends will depend on inventory changes and downstream procurement rhythms [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, caustic soda is under pressure, but in the long - term, there are still expectations for peak - season demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2560, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 830, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2594, and the basis is 34 [1] Spot News - Since August 1st, major alumina manufacturers in Shandong have reduced the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan/ton, with an ex - factory price of 760 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - At the macro level, attention should be paid to the risk of an unexpected trade war in August, and the anti - involution sentiment has weakened recently. During the anti - involution process, the fundamentals of caustic soda have not improved significantly, and there is a lack of driving force. Currently, anti - involution policies do not cover the caustic soda industry [3] - Caustic soda has insufficient motivation to increase prices due to the off - season demand, but is strongly supported by costs due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on caustic soda supply and the impact of 08 - contract warehouse receipts on the market [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic liquid caustic soda market in China is experiencing weak transaction volumes, with prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda rising in Shandong and Guangdong, while most regions remain stable [1] - In Shandong, increased downstream demand and limited inventory among chlor-alkali enterprises have contributed to price increases for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda [1] - The main market prices for 32% ion membrane caustic soda in Shandong are between 800-885 RMB/ton, and for 50% ion membrane caustic soda, they are between 1300-1320 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of July 10, the weighted average operating rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country is 85.19%, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [2] - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China is 187,300 tons, showing a slight decrease of 1.06% from July 2, while in Shandong, the inventory increased by 1.93% to 58,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall spot market remains stable, with some regions experiencing price increases due to temporary demand support from key downstream sectors [3] - The supply-demand imbalance is limited, but high profits are encouraging increased production, while trading activity between alumina plants and traders is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, driven by macroeconomic sentiment and speculative demand [3]

烧碱：短期偏强运行 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 09合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2454 810 2531 77 2025 年 7 月 10 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，今日 32%离子膜碱收于 810 元/吨，较上期价格环比持平。前期主力下游企业采购 液碱价格上调后今日价格暂稳。区域内企业开工负荷变动较小，市场价格稳定。 【市场状况分析】 近期烧碱期货价格反弹，主要因液氯降价速度超预期，部分企业出现降负。短期现货方面出现反弹，主 要因价格低位，刺激市场阶段性补库需求。 从基本面看，7 月烧碱检修产能较 6 月减少明显，7 月检修主要集中在西北、华东，山东前期检修装置 将陆续重启。同时，烧碱 6-7 月份新增产能或达到 110 万吨，因此供应压力仍较大。需求端，非铝需求支撑 偏弱，氧化铝的烧碱库存偏高，不过出口方向支撑尚可，低价补库意愿较强。成本端，虽然 7 月份电价继续 下行，但液氯的快速下跌，导致烧碱成本抬升。 请 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price decline of caustic soda is not over yet, but due to the impact of liquid chlorine, the cost has increased, and the far - month valuation is repaired, but the continuous rebound space may be limited. The later focus should be on the impact of liquid chlorine on the supply of caustic soda. If there is a substantial production cut or load reduction, it can be treated bullishly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda is 2358, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 770, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2406, and the basis is 48 [1]. - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 770 yuan/ton today, a 1.28% decrease from the previous period. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major downstream enterprises decreased by 15 to 735, and some enterprises followed the price cut. Currently, the factory inventories of most enterprises are at a low level, which provides short - term support for the market [1]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is still falling, mainly because Shandong alumina enterprises continue to lower their purchase prices. When there is an expectation of spot price decline, the inventory - building demand of downstream and traders slows down significantly, intensifying the negative market feedback. The pressure on near - month long - position holders to take delivery has increased, and the logic of near - month premium repair is difficult to support the market [2]. - Recently, the short - selling drive for caustic soda has slowed down significantly because the price decline of liquid chlorine has exceeded expectations, and the possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda due to liquid chlorine disturbances in the future has increased [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased significantly compared with June. The maintenance in July is mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously shut - down units in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high [2]. - On the demand side, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina's caustic soda inventory is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices is strong. On the cost side, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

2025 年 6 月 30 日 烧碱：短期反弹，后期仍有压力 | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 | 山东现货32碱折盘面 | 基差 | | 2319 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 | 780 | 2438 | 119 | 【现货消息】 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 以山东地区为基准，今日 32%离子膜碱收于 780 元/吨，较上期价格持稳。局部液碱市场价格维稳，个 别企业签单不佳库存上升下，价格呈现下调。高度碱目前签单不佳，依旧以发前期订单为主。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱现货价格持续下跌，主要因山东氧化铝企业再次下调采购价。在现货有降价预期时，下游和贸易商 的囤货需求明显放缓，加剧市场负反馈。同时，由于现货的快速下跌，近月多头接货压力加剧，近月补贴水 的逻辑也难以支撑市场。不过近期煤炭价格出现反弹，随着气温上升 ...

以山东地区为基准，今日 32%离子膜碱收于 780 元/吨，较上期价格持稳。主力下游采购 32 碱价格继续 下调 10 元至 750 元后，省内大部分企业暂未跟进，但有企业库存增加，短期价格预计维稳可能性大。 【市场状况分析】 烧碱期货价格继续下跌，主要因山东氧化铝企业再次下调采购价。在现货有降价预期时，下游和贸易商 的囤货需求明显放缓，加剧市场负反馈。不过 07 合约面临交割，仓单少，期货补贴水，短期市场反弹。 下半年高利润，高产量的格局将始终影响烧碱，做空烧碱利润将变成年度级别的策略和主逻辑，不过大 贴水情况下，短期进一步下跌空间有限，需等待现货降价和基差收敛。 在利润或被持续压缩的背景下，烧碱也不是没有反弹的空间，从历史的角度看，近三年季节性旺季都出 现过 1000 元/吨以上的利润。主要因为液体化工品短期供需错配带来的巨大价格弹性。 下半年重点关注氧化铝和出口方向的囤货，非铝环节金九银十的备货。全国样本库存 30 万吨以下，烧 碱非常容易出现缺货行情。 2025 年 6 月 26 日 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧 ...

2025 年 6 月 17 日 烧碱：现货承压，期货补贴水 | 陈嘉昕 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 | | chenjiaxin023887@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | 烧碱基本面数据 | | | | | 09合约期货价格 | 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 | 山东现货32碱折盘面 | 基差 | | 2276 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 | 850 | 2656 | 380 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【现货消息】 山东地区主要氧化铝厂家采购 32%离子膜碱自 6 月 17 日起价格下调 20 元/吨，执行出厂 800 元/吨。 【市场状况分析】 高利润，高产量的格局将始终影响烧碱，做空烧碱利润将变成年度级别的策略和主逻辑，不过当前主力 合约价格贴水现货幅度接近 20%，大贴水情况下，短期进一步下跌空间有限，需等待现货降价和基差收敛。 在利润或被持续压缩的背景下，烧碱也不是没有反弹的空间，从历史的角度看，近三年季节性旺季都出 现过 1000 元/吨以上的利润。主要因为液体化工品短期供需 ...