Core Insights - The domestic liquid caustic soda market is experiencing weak transaction activity, with prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda declining in various regions due to low demand from downstream industries and traders [1][2] - The overall operating rate of major sample enterprises in the country has decreased slightly, indicating a reduction in production activity [1][2] - Inventory levels for 32% liquid caustic soda have increased in several regions, reflecting a lack of purchasing enthusiasm from downstream buyers [2] Price Trends - Prices for 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong are currently between 680-775 RMB/ton, while 50% liquid caustic soda is priced at 1150-1170 RMB/ton [1] - The price of liquid caustic soda is expected to continue to trend weakly due to ongoing supply pressures and a lack of significant demand [2] Inventory Levels - As of November 26, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China has risen to 261,400 tons, a 6.04% increase from the previous week [2] - In Shandong, the inventory for 32% liquid caustic soda has increased by 9.19% to 124,800 tons, attributed to high operating rates and low unloading efficiency from aluminum oxide enterprises [2] Market Outlook - The caustic soda industry is facing ongoing supply and demand pressures, with high production levels and elevated inventories leading to a weak price outlook [2] - The traditional demand off-season is persisting, and there is no significant boost from exports, suggesting that prices will likely remain weak in the near term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic liquid caustic soda market shows stable prices in multiple regions, with a notable price increase for 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, despite limited profitability for chlor-alkali enterprises [1][2]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The transaction volume in the domestic liquid caustic soda market is acceptable today, with prices stable in many areas and an increase in the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong [1]. - In Shandong, the main transaction price for 32% liquid caustic soda is between 770-865 RMB/ton, while for 50% liquid caustic soda, it is between 1270-1290 RMB/ton [1]. - The overall supply and demand situation in other regions remains stable, although some markets see a decline in the willingness of downstream buyers to purchase at current high prices [1]. Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of this Thursday, the national average operating load of sample enterprises is 85.44%, down 1.29 percentage points from last week, due to increased maintenance and production cuts in chlor-alkali facilities [2]. - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China increased to 173,300 tons, up 0.70% from September 10, driven by reduced production and active downstream procurement [2]. - In Shandong, the inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda rose to 36,600 tons, an increase of 8.28% from September 10, indicating a higher overall inventory level due to low downstream purchasing activity [2]. Group 3: Price Trends and Market Outlook - The market continues to trend weakly, with increased supply and higher operating rates among sample manufacturers [3]. - The recent decline in domestic alumina prices has narrowed profit margins for domestic alumina enterprises, leading to cautious purchasing behavior in the North China region [3]. - In Shandong, due to the upcoming National Day holiday, there may be a delay in releasing liquid caustic soda inventory, and with high supply levels, there is a possibility of further price reductions [3].

Group 1 - The domestic liquid caustic soda market is stable with acceptable transaction volumes, particularly in Shandong where demand remains decent and transportation in Tianjin has resumed, alleviating some shipping pressures for chlor-alkali enterprises [1] - The main prices for 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong are between 850-915 RMB/ton, while the 50% liquid caustic soda prices range from 1340-1360 RMB/ton [1] Group 2 - As of Thursday, the national average operating rate for major sample enterprises is 86.09%, down 1.25 percentage points from last week due to increased maintenance of chlor-alkali facilities [2] - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China decreased by 18.81% to 189,650 tons as of August 20, while Shandong's inventory fell by 19.31% to 67,700 tons, indicating improved purchasing activity from downstream sectors [2] Group 3 - Following the recent military parade, transportation disruptions are expected to ease, allowing liquid caustic soda companies to resume normal supply to downstream markets, with short-term market support from demand [3] - The current low inventory levels in Shandong and the recovery in non-aluminum downstream demand are likely to keep spot prices firm, with increased purchasing activity anticipated as traders prepare for upcoming demand [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Research Variety: Caustic Soda [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Date: August 28, 2025 [1] 2. Market Conditions 2.1 Futures Market - **Contract Quotes**: The main caustic soda contract, Caustic Soda 2601, fluctuated on August 28, 2025, closing at 2,692 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton or 0.37% from the previous settlement price. Trading volume decreased by 63,000 lots to 366,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 7,343 lots to 113,000 lots [2]. - **Variety Prices**: Among the 12 caustic soda futures contracts, only the Caustic Soda 2607 contract rose slightly by 0.18%, while the rest declined. The total open interest of the variety was 261,700 lots, a decrease of 12,871 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract, Caustic Soda 2601, decreased by 7,343 lots, with 98.92 million yuan of funds flowing out [5]. - **Related Quotes**: The put options of the main caustic soda contract SH601 performed better than the call options today, with relatively low overall trading volume [7]. 2.2 Spot Market - In Shandong, the prices of 32% caustic soda remained mostly stable, with some companies with low inventories and good sales slightly increasing prices. The mainstream transaction prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda were 870 - 930 yuan/ton in southwestern Shandong, 840 - 890 yuan/ton in central and eastern Shandong, and 880 - 900 yuan/ton in northern Shandong. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in central and eastern Shandong was 1,340 - 1,380 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - As of August 28, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 379,600 wet tons, a 4.25% decrease from the previous period and a 28.84% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization ratio of the national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 21.73%, a 0.65% decrease from the previous period. The capacity utilization ratios in the northwest, north, and southwest regions increased, while those in the central, eastern, southern, and northeastern regions decreased [10][11]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - The main caustic soda SH601 contract closed with a small negative line today, supported by the 10 - day moving average below [12]. 4. Market Outlook - Today, the main caustic soda futures contract, Caustic Soda 2601, continued to fluctuate weakly, while the spot price remained stable. This week, the inventory of sample enterprises continued to decline, with a 4.25% decrease from the previous period. Orders outside Shandong will be suspended due to a major event on September 3, and non - aluminum downstream industries are resisting high - priced goods, resulting in slower overall sales. In the eastern region, supply is tight due to equipment maintenance, which supports prices. Future price trends will depend on inventory changes and downstream procurement rhythms [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, caustic soda is under pressure, but in the long - term, there are still expectations for peak - season demand [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The futures price of the 09 contract is 2560, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 830, the spot 32% caustic soda in Shandong converted to the futures price is 2594, and the basis is 34 [1] Spot News - Since August 1st, major alumina manufacturers in Shandong have reduced the purchase price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda by 10 yuan/ton, with an ex - factory price of 760 yuan/ton [2] Market Condition Analysis - At the macro level, attention should be paid to the risk of an unexpected trade war in August, and the anti - involution sentiment has weakened recently. During the anti - involution process, the fundamentals of caustic soda have not improved significantly, and there is a lack of driving force. Currently, anti - involution policies do not cover the caustic soda industry [3] - Caustic soda has insufficient motivation to increase prices due to the off - season demand, but is strongly supported by costs due to the weak performance of liquid chlorine. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream industries on caustic soda supply and the impact of 08 - contract warehouse receipts on the market [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic liquid caustic soda market in China is experiencing weak transaction volumes, with prices for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda rising in Shandong and Guangdong, while most regions remain stable [1] - In Shandong, increased downstream demand and limited inventory among chlor-alkali enterprises have contributed to price increases for 32% and 50% liquid caustic soda [1] - The main market prices for 32% ion membrane caustic soda in Shandong are between 800-885 RMB/ton, and for 50% ion membrane caustic soda, they are between 1300-1320 RMB/ton [1] Group 2: Production and Inventory - As of July 10, the weighted average operating rate of sample enterprises in major regions across the country is 85.19%, a decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [2] - The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda in East China is 187,300 tons, showing a slight decrease of 1.06% from July 2, while in Shandong, the inventory increased by 1.93% to 58,000 tons [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The overall spot market remains stable, with some regions experiencing price increases due to temporary demand support from key downstream sectors [3] - The supply-demand imbalance is limited, but high profits are encouraging increased production, while trading activity between alumina plants and traders is on the rise [3] - The market is expected to maintain a strong performance in the short term, driven by macroeconomic sentiment and speculative demand [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is rated as "1", indicating a "moderately strong" outlook, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [5] Core View of the Report - Caustic soda is expected to run moderately strong in the short - term. Although the far - month valuation is repaired due to cost increase affected by liquid chlorine, the continuous rebound space may be limited. The key is to focus on the persistence of liquid chlorine's impact on caustic soda supply [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 10, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2454, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 810 yuan/ton, the converted futures price of Shandong's 32% caustic soda was 2531, and the basis was 77 [1] Spot News - Based on Shandong, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda was 810 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous period. After the procurement price of liquid caustic soda by major downstream enterprises increased, the price was temporarily stable today. The operating load of local enterprises changed little, and the market price was stable [2] Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound of caustic soda futures was due to the faster - than - expected decline in liquid chlorine prices, causing some enterprises to reduce production. The short - term spot rebound was because low prices stimulated phased replenishment demand. In July, the overhaul capacity decreased compared to June, mainly in the Northwest and East China, and the previously overhauled devices in Shandong will restart. The new capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high. Non - aluminum demand support is weak, and the alumina inventory of caustic soda is high, but export support is okay with strong low - price replenishment willingness. Although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid fall of liquid chlorine increased the cost of caustic soda [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price decline of caustic soda is not over yet, but due to the impact of liquid chlorine, the cost has increased, and the far - month valuation is repaired, but the continuous rebound space may be limited. The later focus should be on the impact of liquid chlorine on the supply of caustic soda. If there is a substantial production cut or load reduction, it can be treated bullishly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda is 2358, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong is 770, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price is 2406, and the basis is 48 [1]. - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 770 yuan/ton today, a 1.28% decrease from the previous period. The purchase price of 32% caustic soda by major downstream enterprises decreased by 15 to 735, and some enterprises followed the price cut. Currently, the factory inventories of most enterprises are at a low level, which provides short - term support for the market [1]. 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - The spot price of caustic soda is still falling, mainly because Shandong alumina enterprises continue to lower their purchase prices. When there is an expectation of spot price decline, the inventory - building demand of downstream and traders slows down significantly, intensifying the negative market feedback. The pressure on near - month long - position holders to take delivery has increased, and the logic of near - month premium repair is difficult to support the market [2]. - Recently, the short - selling drive for caustic soda has slowed down significantly because the price decline of liquid chlorine has exceeded expectations, and the possibility of passive production cuts in caustic soda due to liquid chlorine disturbances in the future has increased [2]. - In terms of fundamentals, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda in July has decreased significantly compared with June. The maintenance in July is mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously shut - down units in Shandong will gradually restart. The new production capacity of caustic soda from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high [2]. - On the demand side, the non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina's caustic soda inventory is high, but the export direction provides good support, and the willingness to replenish inventory at low prices is strong. On the cost side, although the electricity price continued to decline in July, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine has led to an increase in the cost of caustic soda [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The caustic soda spot price has been continuously falling, mainly due to Shandong alumina enterprises lowering their purchase prices again. When there is an expectation of price cuts in the spot market, the inventory - building demand of downstream and traders has significantly slowed down, intensifying the negative market feedback. However, the recent rebound in coal prices and the approaching peak summer electricity consumption season may lead to a recovery in electricity prices from July to August, resulting in a certain repair of the long - term valuation of caustic soda [2]. - The pattern of high profits and high production in the second half of the year will always affect caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profits will become an annual - level strategy and the main logic. Currently, the price of the main contract is at a large discount to the spot price, and in this situation, the short - term further decline space is limited, waiting for the spot price to drop and the basis to converge [2]. - Caustic soda also has room for rebound. In the past three years, there have been profits of over 1,000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons, mainly due to the huge price elasticity caused by short - term supply - demand mismatches of liquid chemicals. In the second half of the year, focus on inventory - building in the alumina and export directions, and inventory - building during the "Golden September and Silver October" in non - aluminum sectors. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to shortages [2]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. Eventually, the futures will make up the discount as the delivery approaches and then continue to face pressure. The logic of shorting profits cannot be falsified under the weak demand expectation. However, at the absolute valuation level, low prices will stimulate downstream inventory - building, and seasonal demand still exists, with the core being to focus on the downstream inventory - building rhythm [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price is 2,319 yuan/ton, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price converted to the futures price is 2,438 yuan/ton, and the basis is 119 yuan/ton [1]. - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda is 780 yuan/ton today, remaining stable compared to the previous period. The local liquid caustic soda market price has remained stable. Due to poor order - signing and rising inventory in some enterprises, the price has been lowered. The current order - signing for high - concentration caustic soda is poor, and it is still mainly fulfilling previous orders [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The continuous decline in caustic soda spot prices is due to Shandong alumina enterprises cutting purchase prices. The slowdown in downstream and trader inventory - building demand has exacerbated the negative market feedback. The recent coal price rebound and the approaching summer peak electricity consumption season may lead to a recovery in electricity prices from July to August, repairing the long - term valuation of caustic soda [2]. - The high - profit and high - production pattern in the second half of the year will influence caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profits is the main strategy. Currently, the large discount of the main contract to the spot limits short - term decline, waiting for spot price cuts and basis convergence [2]. - Caustic soda can rebound. Seasonal peak seasons in the past three years saw profits over 1,000 yuan/ton. Focus on inventory - building in alumina, export, and non - aluminum sectors in the second half of the year. Shortages are likely when inventory is below 300,000 tons [2]. Strategy - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making hedging difficult for manufacturers. After making up the discount as delivery approaches, it will continue to face pressure. The logic of shorting profits cannot be falsified under weak demand. Low prices can stimulate downstream inventory - building, and seasonal demand exists, with the key being downstream inventory - building rhythm [4]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda futures price continued to decline due to Shandong alumina enterprises lowering their purchase prices again. When there is an expectation of spot price reduction, the stocking demand of downstream and traders slows down significantly, intensifying the market's negative feedback. However, the 07 contract is facing delivery, with few warehouse receipts and futures price making up the discount, leading to a short - term market rebound [2]. - The pattern of high profits and high production in the second half of the year will always impact caustic soda. Shorting caustic soda profits will become an annual - level strategy and the main logic. But with a large discount, the short - term further decline space is limited, and it is necessary to wait for the spot price to drop and the basis to converge [2]. - Caustic soda still has room for rebound. In the past three years, there have been profits of over 1000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons, mainly due to the huge price elasticity brought by short - term supply - demand mismatch of liquid chemicals [2]. - In the second half of the year, focus on stocking in the alumina and export directions, and the stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" in non - aluminum sectors. When the national sample inventory is below 300,000 tons, caustic soda is prone to a shortage situation [2]. - The future trend of caustic soda will show a large futures discount structure, making it difficult for manufacturers to hedge. Eventually, the futures price will make up the discount as the delivery approaches and then continue to face pressure. In the case of weak demand expectations, the current logic of shorting profits cannot be falsified. However, from an absolute valuation perspective, low prices will stimulate downstream stocking, and seasonal demand support still exists. Therefore, one can participate in positive spreads at the right time, but the core is to focus on the downstream stocking rhythm [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - As of June 26, 2025, the 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was priced at 780 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous period. After the main downstream reduced the purchase price of 32% caustic soda by 10 yuan to 750 yuan, most enterprises in the province have not followed up, but some enterprises' inventories have increased, and the short - term price is expected to remain stable [1]. Market Condition Analysis - The decline in caustic soda futures price is mainly due to Shandong alumina enterprises cutting purchase prices. The 07 contract is facing delivery, with few warehouse receipts and futures price making up the discount, resulting in a short - term market rebound [2]. - In the second half of the year, the high - profit and high - production pattern will affect caustic soda. Shorting profits is an annual - level strategy. With a large discount, the short - term decline space is limited, waiting for spot price drop and basis convergence [2]. - Caustic soda has rebound potential. In the past three years, there were profits over 1000 yuan/ton during seasonal peak seasons due to short - term supply - demand mismatch of liquid chemicals [2]. - In the second half, focus on stocking in alumina, export, and non - aluminum sectors during "Golden September and Silver October". A national sample inventory below 300,000 tons may lead to a caustic soda shortage [2]. Strategy - The caustic soda futures will show a large discount structure, making hedging difficult for manufacturers. The futures price will make up the discount before delivery and then face pressure. In weak demand expectations, shorting profit logic holds. Low prices can stimulate downstream stocking, and one can participate in positive spreads by timing, focusing on downstream stocking rhythm [2][3].