Group 1: Report's Core View - The continuous inventory build-up and delivery game have led to a short-term decline in the futures price of caustic soda. The caustic soda 2509 contract dropped from a high of 2,757 yuan/ton on July 24th to a minimum of 2,412 yuan/ton, mainly affected by three factors: the return of production capacity after the peak maintenance period, the rebound of liquid chlorine prices, and the increase in warehouse receipt registrations [2][5]. Group 2: Market Outlook - Entering late August, autumn routine maintenance is expected to cause a phased decline in caustic soda production. Non-aluminum demand is expected to enter the peak season in September, and the downstream operating rate needs to be tracked. For alumina demand, the alkali preparation demand driven by alumina production in the second half of the year is expected to decline, but the daily alkali consumption of new plants still supports demand. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. Given the pressure of warehouse receipts and the inventory build-up trend, there is great uncertainty in going long. The approaching peak maintenance period and the expectation of the non-aluminum demand peak season may limit the downside space of the futures price. The operating range of the main caustic soda contract SH509 is 2,350 - 2,600 yuan/ton [3][20]. Group 3: Specific Data - As of August 8th, the weekly production of caustic soda reached 833,000 tons, a new high this year, with the capacity utilization rate rising to 85.1%. The subsidy for liquid chlorine narrowed from -550 yuan/ton to -100 yuan/ton, driving the chlor-alkali profit from negative to positive, reaching a maximum of 352 yuan/ton. On August 1st, 388 new warehouse receipts were registered, causing the SH2509 contract to decline significantly, the futures premium to turn into a discount, and the 9 - 1 spread to fall to a minimum of -133 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Maintenance Schedule - Multiple companies in different regions have maintenance plans from July to October, including full stops, partial stops, and semi - load rotation maintenance. For example, Dongming Petrochemical in East China stopped for about 40 days of maintenance on July 31st, and Yantai Wanhua in East China plans to start semi - load rotation maintenance from mid - August to late September [23].

中国烧碱期价大幅走高，从观望到出手，买家重返市场释放了什么信号？两大工厂投产在即，价格还能 稳得住？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...