热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/19 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 备注：HC：热轧卷板 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,299 | -16↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1502009 | -12645↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -19,032 | -5898↓ HC5-1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the HC2601 contract traded within a range. Mexico is seeking to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars by up to 50%. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased after a decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%. Inventory decreased slightly, and apparent demand increased significantly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils is fairly resilient, with both year - on - year and month - on - month increases in apparent demand, but tariff disruptions have affected market investment sentiment. Technically, for the HC2601 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, with the green bar expanding. Short - term trading is recommended, with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the trading volume was 1,323,310 lots, up 9,651 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 113,934 lots, down 7,049 lots. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was 38 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The HC Futures Exchange's daily warehouse receipt was 59,441 tons, up 34,382 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 242 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou it was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract was 76 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The price difference between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar was 170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 801 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan. The market price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billets was 2,990 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2532 million tons, up 623,000 tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 406,600 tons, up 9,500 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2354 million tons, up 134,200 tons. The inventory of Hebei billets was 1.2895 million tons, down 75,800 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.77%, down 4.23 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.2514 million tons, up 109,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 83.06%, up 2.79 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 808,800 tons, up 9,000 tons. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.9244 million tons, down 19,200 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons. The monthly net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units. The monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units. The monthly output of household washing machines was 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2] Industry News - On September 11, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 3.2514 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 109,000 tons; the factory inventory was 808,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons; the social inventory was 2.9244 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,200 tons; the total inventory was 3.7332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,200 tons; the apparent demand was 3.2616 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 208,000 tons. Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the country is seeking to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars by up to 50% to protect about 320,000 jobs [2]