地球"热麻了"！ 6月葡萄牙莫拉地区46.6℃；西班牙局部地区46℃，打破1965年以来纪录；法国40.9℃，创气温新高；意 大利对21城发布最高级别红色警报…… 今年入汛以来，我国平均高温日数为历史同期最多；今年立夏至大暑节气期间，我国平均气温为1961年 以来最高；截至8月7日，国家级气象站已有94个打破8月高温纪录。 全球是否正面临热浪常态化趋势？高温天气对经济运行会产生哪些直接和间接影响？我们又该如何应 对？ 极端高温对经济的直接影响集中体现为对生产系统的物理性冲击，包括电网峰值负荷持续突破上限触发 工业限电，迫使企业停工停产；高温导致航道水深下降，抬升物流成本；高温干旱引发农作物热害，造 成产量锐减。 近日，《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称NBD）对国家气候中心气候变化监测预估室正研级高工柳艳 菊、业务系统发展与运控室高级工程师张思齐、气候服务室高级工程师崔童、气候预测室高级工程师吕 卓卓、气候变化影响适应室副研究员黄大鹏、气候变化战略研究室工程师徐源等6位专家进行专访，请 他们详细解读高温对经济的影响。 地球正在经历热浪常态化 NBD：近年来，全球多地高温频频刷新纪录，我们是否正面临热浪常态化趋势？ ...

Group 1: Climate Change and Heat Waves - The normalization of heat waves is an undeniable fact, threatening human health, economic security, and ecological systems [3] - Human activities since the Industrial Revolution are the main drivers of extreme temperature changes globally, as confirmed by the IPCC's sixth assessment report [3] - In China, the average number of high-temperature days has increased by 25% over the past decade, with extreme heat events evolving into continuous compound disasters [3] Group 2: Economic Impacts of High Temperatures - Global warming has led to significant labor work hour and income losses due to extreme heat, with direct impacts on production systems, including industrial power cuts and increased logistics costs [4] - Historical data indicates that for every 1°C increase in temperature, tourist arrivals decrease by approximately 8.1%, leading to a 6% reduction in tourism revenue [4][6] - High temperatures are reshaping tourism consumption preferences from sightseeing to summer wellness experiences, a trend likely to become more pronounced [6] Group 3: Energy Sector Response - Extreme heat has increased electricity demand, prompting the need for a collaborative forecasting mechanism between climate and energy departments to manage peak loads effectively [8][9] - The pressure from high temperatures has accelerated the development of renewable energy sectors, particularly solar power, which aligns well with peak electricity demand during hot periods [10] - The integration of meteorological data with industrial data can help create predictive models for industry productivity and losses during extreme heat [7] Group 4: Adaptation Strategies - Coastal regions face challenges such as increased temperature control costs in high-end manufacturing, but can leverage digital technology to develop smart energy networks [12] - Agricultural sectors in arid regions should focus on promoting drought-resistant crops and efficient irrigation technologies to mitigate the impacts of extreme heat [13][18] - Successful international experiences, such as weather index insurance in Spain and drought-resistant crop programs in Cambodia, can provide valuable lessons for China's adaptation strategies [16][18]

Group 1 - The phenomenon of heatwaves has become a normalized trend globally, posing threats to human health, economic security, and ecological systems [3][7] - Human activities, particularly greenhouse gas emissions since the Industrial Revolution, are identified as the primary drivers of extreme temperature changes [4][5] - In China, the average number of high-temperature days has increased by 25% over the past decade, with extreme heat events evolving into continuous compound disasters [6][24] Group 2 - High temperatures have led to significant income losses globally, with potential labor hours and income losses reaching new highs [8] - Direct impacts of extreme heat on the economy include physical shocks to production systems, such as industrial power restrictions and increased logistics costs due to lower water levels [9][10] - Indirect impacts manifest through supply chain disruptions and rising food inflation due to agricultural losses and transportation issues [10][11] Group 3 - The tourism industry is experiencing shifts, with a decrease in visitors to traditional scenic spots and an increase in demand for summer retreat destinations, as temperatures rise [13][15] - Historical data indicates that for every 1°C increase in temperature, tourist arrivals decrease by approximately 8.1%, leading to a 6% reduction in tourism revenue [13] Group 4 - The extreme heat has stimulated demand for renewable energy installations, particularly solar power, as high temperatures coincide with peak electricity demand [22] - Collaborative mechanisms between climate and energy departments are being established to predict and manage electricity demand during heatwaves [18][19] - The pressure from high temperatures is accelerating the development of smart energy networks and the adoption of heat-resistant materials in coastal regions [25][21] Group 5 - Different regions in China face unique challenges and opportunities in responding to high temperatures, with coastal areas focusing on high-tech solutions and the central and western regions addressing agricultural water shortages [24][26] - Infrastructure improvements, such as urban planning and agricultural adaptations, are essential to mitigate the impacts of extreme heat on economic development [27][29] - Learning from international experiences, China can enhance its agricultural resilience through drought-resistant crop varieties and innovative insurance mechanisms [31][36]

Group 1: Global Heatwave Trends - The phenomenon of heatwaves becoming a normalized trend is undeniable, posing threats to human health, economic security, and ecological systems [3][4][5] - In the past decade, the average number of high-temperature days in China has increased by 25%, with extreme heat events evolving into continuous compound disasters [6][7] Group 2: Economic Impacts of High Temperatures - High temperatures have led to unprecedented potential labor hours and income losses globally, with direct impacts on production systems, including industrial power restrictions and increased logistics costs [8][9] - Indirect effects include disruptions in supply chains, rising energy prices, and food inflation due to agricultural yield reductions [10][11] Group 3: Tourism Sector Adjustments - Historical data indicates that for every 1°C increase in temperature, tourist arrivals decrease by approximately 8.1%, leading to a 6% reduction in tourism revenue [13] - High temperatures are reshaping global tourism preferences, shifting consumer behavior from sightseeing to wellness and cooling tourism [15] Group 4: Renewable Energy Demand Surge - Extreme heat has significantly increased electricity demand, prompting a surge in renewable energy installations, particularly solar power, which aligns with peak electricity usage during hot periods [22][21] - Collaborative efforts between climate and energy departments are enhancing predictive models for electricity load management during heatwaves [18][19] Group 5: Regional Economic Opportunities and Challenges - Coastal regions face challenges such as increased temperature control costs in high-end manufacturing, while opportunities exist in developing smart energy networks and heat-resistant materials [24] - The central and western agricultural regions confront irrigation shortages and crop yield declines, but can capitalize on promoting photovoltaic agriculture and climate-adaptive crops [25] Group 6: Infrastructure and Policy Recommendations - Recommendations for climate-adaptive infrastructure include urban planning, agricultural water management, and public health measures to mitigate extreme heat impacts [26][28] - Successful international experiences suggest the need for innovative agricultural insurance mechanisms and renewable energy transitions to enhance resilience against climate risks [30][32]