Report Core View - There are five reasons to be bullish on the coking coal main contract, including strong cost support, supply contraction, rigid demand and restocking, resonance of technology and funds, and positive policy expectations [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index has continued to set records with 16 consecutive positive days, and the trading volume has continued to increase. Technically, there is a small - cycle adjustment [7] - The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, and caution is also advised when participating in the gold market [10] - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply has further fermented. The demand side has weak domestic demand support. Technically, after a breakthrough, there is a pull - back, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged for iron ore [12][13] - For glass, technically, it is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [15][16] - It is estimated that the methanol import volume in December may exceed 1.7 million tons, with a significant month - on - month increase. The Iranian methanol export volume has significantly decreased, and the port is likely to enter a destocking cycle. The short - term price is mainly fluctuating upwards [19] - As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports has continued to accumulate, and the futures market has recently shown a range - bound trend [22] Summary of Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Cost support: The spot price has reached the coal mine cost line, and some have fallen below the imported coal cost. A strong support is formed around 1,000 yuan/ton, and the valuation is at a historical low with sufficient repair momentum [4] - Supply: Safety inspections in major production areas have been upgraded, some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia have shut down for maintenance in advance, and the production capacity in Yulin has been reduced by about 19 million tons, resulting in a tight supply of high - quality coking coal [4] - Demand: Steel mills will resume production after maintenance in January, and the daily hot metal output is expected to rise to around 2.3 million tons. The coking coal inventory of steel mills is at a medium - low level, and the rigid restocking demand before the Spring Festival is clear [4] - Technology and funds: The price has broken through the previous shock platform, with a MACD golden cross and a long - arranged moving average. The main contract has increased positions and risen, and the willingness of bulls to enter the market is stronger than that of bears, with active capital layout [4] - Policy: The "anti - involution" and capacity optimization of the steel industry are advancing, and macro - level stable growth measures have been intensified. The 2605 contract bears the pricing expectation of demand recovery in the second quarter, and both sentiment and valuation are being repaired [4] Stock Index Futures - The Shanghai Composite Index has continued its upward trend. Every intraday adjustment is a good opportunity to buy on dips [6][7] Gold - The entire precious metal market has increased volatility, and caution is required when participating [10] Iron Ore - Supply: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of loose supply has further fermented [13] - Demand: Except for exports, the domestic demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors is still weak [13] - Technology: After a breakthrough, there is a pull - back, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged [12] Glass - Supply and demand: The daily melting volume has continued to decline slightly, and the inventory has also decreased. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus policies and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [16] - Technology: It is consolidating at a high level after a breakthrough, and the idea of buying on dips remains unchanged [15] Methanol - Supply: It is estimated that the methanol import volume in December may exceed 1.7 million tons, with a significant month - on - month increase. The Iranian methanol export volume has significantly decreased, and the port is likely to enter a destocking cycle [19] - Price: The short - term price is mainly fluctuating upwards [19] Pulp - Inventory: As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports was 2.007 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. The inventory has continued to accumulate, and the daily shipment speed in Qingdao Port has not changed much [22] - Market: The futures market has recently shown a range - bound trend [22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal and coke futures indicate a complex market environment, with price adjustments and inventory changes impacting profitability and production levels across the industry [6]. Supply - As of October 30, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants was 646,000 tons, remaining stable week-on-week, while the average daily production from 247 steel mills was 462,000 tons, showing a slight increase of 100 tons [3]. Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2.3636 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 35,400 tons week-on-week. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.75%, down by 2.96%, and the capacity utilization rate for ironmaking was 88.61%, down by 1.33%. The profitability of steel mills was at 45.02%, a decline of 2.60% [4]. Inventory - Total coke inventory reached 9.588 million tons as of October 30, an increase of 62,000 tons week-on-week. Independent coking plants held 599,000 tons, up by 12,000 tons, while steel mills had 6.291 million tons, down by 41,000 tons. Port inventory was at 2.699 million tons, increasing by 91,000 tons [5]. Profitability - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was -41 yuan, with regional variations: Shanxi at -44 yuan, Shandong at 20 yuan, Inner Mongolia at -101 yuan, and Hebei at 5 yuan [2]. Market Dynamics - The recent third round of price increases for coke was implemented on November 5, with expectations for further price adjustments due to rising coking coal prices providing cost support. However, environmental restrictions in regions like Tangshan and Shanxi have led to reduced pig iron production, exerting pressure on coke prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - In October, domestic coke prices showed a strong upward trend due to tight coking coal supply and increased demand from downstream steel mills for inventory replenishment. However, as steel mills face losses, the likelihood of continued price increases for coke in November is low, with potential downward pressure expected after mid-November [1][8]. Group 1: Price Trends - In October, domestic coke prices experienced two rounds of increases, with mainstream market prices rising by 100-110 CNY per ton, reaching 1575-1645 CNY per ton for Shanxi's first-grade dry coke by October 27, marking a 7.33% increase from the end of September [3][4]. - The primary reason for the increase in coke prices is the rise in raw material coking coal prices and strong downstream demand [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply has tightened, leading to higher prices and increased costs, which support coke prices. During the National Day holiday, some coal mines suspended operations, and post-holiday, production was limited due to environmental checks, resulting in a strong cost support for coke prices [4][8]. - Many coking plants are currently operating below the breakeven point, leading to increased maintenance and production cuts. As of October 23, the operating rate of major independent coking plants was 75.33%, down 1.71 percentage points from September's peak [4][7]. Group 3: Downstream Steel Mill Activity - The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan reached 90.24% as of October 23, the highest level of the year, indicating strong demand for coke. However, due to rising coking coal prices, steel mills are experiencing reduced profits, which may affect their purchasing behavior [7][8]. - Steel mills have low coke inventory levels, with the average available days of coke inventory at 7.18 days, slightly down from early October. This low inventory level has led to active purchasing behavior from steel mills [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The cost support from coking coal is expected to continue, but the overall demand from steel mills may weaken as seasonal demand for steel decreases. The turning point for coke prices will depend on the extent of maintenance and production cuts in steel mills, particularly after mid-November [8].