Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the downward trend of coke was driven by increased coking coal supply and weak downstream demand, along with policy factors. However, in December, with the expected macro - economic improvement and potential coal mine production cuts, the downward pressure on coke may ease, and the main contract is expected to gradually stabilize. The main risk is the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Current Market Situation of Coke Futures - In November, the J2601 contract of coke futures dropped 11.4%, with the lowest price at 1562.0 yuan/ton. As of December 3, the main contract closed at 1624.5 yuan/ton, down 1.23% daily [2] Spot Market Situation - Since mid - November, coking coal prices have weakened due to increased supply and futures drag. As of November 28, the daily output of coking coal in 523 mines was 76.4 tons, up 2.6 tons/day from November 7. In November, the Ganqimaodu Port's cumulative customs clearance increased by 38.6% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year. The coking coal auction failure rate rose to 30% - 60% in mid - to - late November. On December 3, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port dropped significantly from the November high. On December 1, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, but the subsequent price cut space may be limited [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the short term, coke supply has increased while demand has decreased. As of November 28, the combined daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 110.08 tons, up 1.19 tons week - on - week. The daily output of molten iron in 247 steel mills was 234.68 tons, down 1.60 tons week - on - week. In the future, the demand pressure on coke is expected to ease [4] Overall Conclusion - In November, coke futures declined due to negative factors in the fundamentals and policies. In December, with the expected macro - economic improvement and potential coal mine production cuts, the negative drivers for coke are weakening, and the main contract is expected to stabilize at the lower edge of the shock range. The main risk is the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal futures has been significant, with the 2601 contract experiencing an 11.4% drop in November, reaching a low of 1562.0 yuan/ton, nearing the lower boundary of the fluctuation range since July [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Coking coal supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to a bearish market outlook. The first round of coking coal price reductions has occurred, and coal prices continue to decline, allowing coking enterprises to maintain profit margins [3] - As of November 28, the average daily production of coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 764,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons per day compared to the week of November 7 [1][3] - The average daily output of iron water from 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week, but still higher than the same period last year [3] Market Conditions - The market atmosphere has weakened due to increased supply, with the coking coal auction failure rate rising to 30%-60% in mid to late November. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was reported at 1510 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton from the November peak [2] - The first round of coking coal price reductions has been implemented, with the price at Rizhao Port for premium wet quenching coke at 1620 yuan/ton and the ex-factory price at 1450 yuan/ton, with expectations for further price reductions [2] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve with potential positive signals in December, alongside expectations of production cuts in coal mines at year-end, which may alleviate cost pressures for coking coal [4] - The overall bearish factors in the market are expected to slow down, and the main contract for coking coal may stabilize at the lower end of the fluctuation range [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Steel**: The demand for five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, improving compared to October, but the overall demand intensity in November is weaker than the same period last year. Due to significant production cuts, the supply - demand gap for rebar is favorable with good de - stocking. However, for hot - rolled coils, production cuts are limited, with supply and demand basically balanced and slow de - stocking of high inventories. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the January contract is expected to converge. Considering the seasonal weakening of future demand and high plate inventories, the upward price drive is not obvious, but production cuts support steel prices, so prices are expected to fluctuate. The rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. The basis of rebar will strengthen, while that of hot - rolled coils is weak, and the spread between them will continue to converge. There is an arbitrage opportunity of going long on rebar and short on iron ore for the January contract [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated at a high level. The global iron ore shipment decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin declined slightly, iron water production decreased, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased slightly. The production of five major steel products continued to rise, inventories continued to decline seasonally, and the apparent demand declined. Port inventories increased, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, iron water production will decline seasonally this week, and the inventory contradiction of steel mills has improved significantly. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. Without new macro - drivers, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market. It is recommended to wait and see when the discount is repaired [4]. - **Coke**: Last week, coke futures fluctuated and declined. After mainstream coke enterprises proposed a fourth - round price increase, steel mills proposed a first - round price cut. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market expanded, coking profits were repaired, coke price adjustments lagged behind coking coal, coke enterprises increased prices, and coke production increased after price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, iron water production declined, steel prices fluctuated weakly, steel mill profits decreased, and there was a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills increased inventories, ports decreased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position, with the supply - demand situation of coke weakening. Coke futures were dragged down by the sharp decline of coking coal futures. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1500 - 1650 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Last week, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, and the spot market accelerated its decline, showing a pattern of futures - spot resonance decline. On the supply side, coal mine shipments worsened, some coal mines stopped production, the import of Mongolian coal increased, and the port inventory continued to rise. On the demand side, steel mills increased losses and maintenance, iron water production declined, coke production increased slightly after the recovery of coking profits, and the restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, ports, and coke enterprises reduced inventories, while coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills increased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1000 - 1120 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts also rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 17 yuan/ton to 3110 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Spot prices in East and South China remained unchanged or increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in North China it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts all rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 9 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton, the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar remained unchanged at 3231 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 3171 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, the profit of South China rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and other regional profits remained unchanged [2]. Production - The daily average iron water production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, among which electric - furnace production increased by 2.6 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, and converter production decreased by 4.4 tons to 176.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.0 tons to 319.0 tons, an increase of 0.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.2 tons to 10.4 tons, an increase of 12.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.8 tons to 227.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 tons to 320.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Carajás fines and Brazilian blended fines [4]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 38.1% for Carajás fines [4]. - **Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 24.5, a decrease of 2.0%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 to - 50.5, an increase of 1.9%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 26.0, a decrease of 1.9% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Brazilian blended fines. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased slightly, while the Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. Demand - The daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) remained unchanged at 20.0 days [4]. Coke Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1575 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1731 yuan/ton. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Demand - The iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.5 tons to 71.8 tons, an increase of 9.9%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.2 tons to 625.5 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, a decrease of 2.94% [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.0 tons to - 3.6 tons, an increase of 55.34% [7]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1067 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 1152 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 559 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.8% [7]. Supply - The raw coal production increased by 4.6 tons to 856.1 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The clean coal production increased by 4.9 tons to 438.8 tons, an increase of 1.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, an increase of 9.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.9 tons to 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 tons to 801.3 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.0 tons to 294.5 tons, an increase of 1.0% [7].

机构观点 光大期货： 供应方面，部分原料煤价格下跌让利，焦企盈利水平有所修复，产地焦企开工情况稍有回升，下游对焦 炭的刚需采购，厂内出货情况较好，焦炭库存继续回落。需求端，近期期货盘面连续走弱，且钢材市场 表现难有明显改善，市场情绪一般，钢材利润修复不及预期，钢厂盈利能力不佳，成材出库一般，预计 短期焦炭盘面宽幅震荡运行。 消息面 据外媒报道，煤炭生产商哥伦比亚自然资源公司（CNR）向反垄断机构SIC提交的文件显示，该公司称 其收购哥伦比亚Puerto Nuevo（新港）煤炭码头的提议不会构成垄断，理由是其市场份额将保持在20% 以下。目前已经通过Puerto Nuevo港出口煤炭一段时间，去年通过该港口出口了245万吨煤炭。 截止至11月19日，秦唐沧三大港区煤炭库存2581.3万吨，较上周同期增加186.4万吨。 截至2025年11月18日，海运煤炭运价指数（OCFI）报收1072.85点，与11月11日相比下行144.58点，跌 幅为11.88%。 宝城期货： 整体来看，焦炭短期基本面好转，但持续性预计有限，需求担忧依然存在，且市场对前期的主要向上驱 动"成本端支撑"分歧增加，多空博弈渐增，焦炭期货震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is experiencing fluctuations with recent price adjustments and varying profitability among different regions, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic in the industry [6]. Supply - As of November 13, the average daily production of coking coal from independent coking plants is 630,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6,000 tons. The average daily production from 247 steel mills is 462,000 tons, with a slight increase of 1,000 tons week-on-week, leading to a total production of 1,092,000 tons per day, which is a decrease of 5,000 tons week-on-week [3]. Demand - The average daily pig iron production is 2.3688 million tons, reflecting an increase of 26,600 tons week-on-week. The blast furnace operating rate is 82.81%, down by 0.32% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 88.80%, up by 1.00% week-on-week. The profit margin for steel mills stands at 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87% week-on-week [4]. Inventory - As of November 13, the total inventory of coking coal is 9.4 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 74,000 tons. Independent coking plants hold 582,000 tons, down by 2,000 tons week-on-week, while steel mills have 6.224 million tons, decreasing by 42,000 tons week-on-week. Port inventories are at 2.595 million tons, down by 30,000 tons week-on-week [5]. Price Trends - As of November 17, coking coal futures are experiencing low volatility with a significant drop in night trading. The main contract for coking coal (2601) increased by 40.5 (+2.43%) to 1710.0, while the far-month contract (2605) rose by 35.5 (+1.96%) to 1847.5. The price gap between contracts has strengthened to -138.0 [1]. Profitability - The average profit per ton of coking coal across 30 independent coking plants is -34 yuan. In specific regions, the average profit for Shanxi's primary coking coal is -37 yuan, while Shandong's primary coking coal shows a profit of 26 yuan. Inner Mongolia's secondary coking coal has an average loss of 90 yuan, and Hebei's primary coking coal has a profit of 16 yuan [2]. Market Sentiment - The recent market sentiment indicates a divergence between futures and spot prices, with port trade quotes declining. The fourth round of price increases for coking coal has been implemented, but there are still plans for further increases. The supply side shows some price easing in Shanxi, while demand is pressured by low steel mill profits and environmental regulations affecting production [6]. Strategy Outlook - The market is viewed with a bearish bias, with a trading range reference of 1600-1750, suggesting a cautious approach in the current environment [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Report Date: November 11, 2025 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Data Coke Prices - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1591.62, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 54.61, a monthly increase of 109.23, and a year - on - year decrease of 15.71% [2] - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1845.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year increase of 1.93% [2] - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1770.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.29% [2] - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1810.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.01% [2] - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1280.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 50.00, a monthly increase of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 17.42% [2] Production and Utilization Rates - The blast furnace operating rate is 87.81, with a weekly decrease of 0.80, a monthly decrease of 2.74, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.67% [2] - The daily average iron water output is 234.22, with a weekly decrease of 2.14, a monthly decrease of 7.32, and a year - on - year increase of 0.07% [2] - The coking capacity utilization rate is 72.74, with a weekly decrease of 0.42, a monthly decrease of 2.26, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.49% [2] - The daily average coke output is 53.14, with a weekly decrease of 0.16, a monthly increase of 0.83, and a year - on - year increase of 5.19% [2] Inventory Data - The coking plant inventory is 36.50, with a weekly decrease of 1.02, a monthly decrease of 6.04, and a year - on - year decrease of 17.16% [2] - The port inventory is 202.11, with a weekly decrease of 8.99, a monthly increase of 7.02, and a year - on - year increase of 16.73% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 626.64, with a weekly decrease of 2.41, a monthly decrease of 24.18, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 11.07, with a weekly decrease of 0.50, a monthly decrease of 0.35, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.81% [2] Futures Market Data - The latest price of the 05 futures contract is 1875, with a daily decrease of 20.50, a weekly decrease of 10.00, a monthly increase of 61.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [2] - The latest price of the 09 futures contract is 1953, with a daily decrease of 22.50, a weekly decrease of 9.50, a monthly increase of 48.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.80% [2] - The latest price of the 01 futures contract is 1748, with a daily decrease of 16.50, a weekly decrease of 5.50, a monthly increase of 86.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.81% [2] - The 05 basis is 29.97, with a daily increase of 20.50, a weekly increase of 68.72, a monthly increase of 72.08, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.21 [2] - The 09 basis is - 48.03, with a daily increase of 22.50, a weekly increase of 68.22, a monthly increase of 85.58, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.71 [2] - The 01 basis is 156.97, with a daily increase of 16.50, a weekly increase of 64.22, a monthly increase of 47.08, and a year - on - year increase of 33.79 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is - 127.00, with a daily increase of 4.00, a weekly increase of 4.50, a monthly increase of 25.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 47.00 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is - 78.00, with a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly decrease of 0.50, a monthly increase of 13.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 44.50 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 205.00, with a daily decrease of 6.00, a weekly decrease of 4.00, a monthly decrease of 38.50, and a year - on - year increase of 91.50 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views Steel - Recently, the decline in iron ore prices has led to a rapid drop in steel prices. The supply of iron elements is relatively loose, and the decrease in molten iron production by steel mills has alleviated inventory pressure. The apparent demand for five major steel products is higher than production, and inventory continues to decline. However, the inventory of flat - rolled products is relatively high year - on - year, and the pressure for winter stockpiling is greater than last year. It is expected that steel mills will actively reduce production in winter. The 1 - month contract for rebar and hot - rolled coil is expected to test the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coil can continue to be held [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures showed a weak downward trend. On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased last week, but the arrival volume at 45 ports increased significantly. On the demand side, the profit margin of steel mills has dropped significantly, molten iron production has declined from its peak, and the restocking demand of steel mills is weak. The inventory pressure has increased. The previous macro - positive factors have been digested, and the decline in iron ore prices, molten iron production, and the increase in port inventory still suppress iron ore. The strategy is to short iron ore 2601 on rallies, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and recommend the 1 - 5 positive spread arbitrage [4][6]. Coke - The coke futures showed a volatile downward trend. The spot market has a third - round price increase, and there is still an expectation of further increases. On the supply side, the rebound in coking coal prices provides cost support, and the loss of coke production has narrowed after the price increase. On the demand side, environmental restrictions and the decline in molten iron production have suppressed the price increase. The overall inventory is slightly increasing, and the supply is tight. The strategy is to go long on coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, with a divergence between futures and spot. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, but traders are becoming cautious. On the supply side, some coal mines are resuming production, and the supply is expected to increase, but the recovery is limited. On the demand side, the restocking demand is weakening. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing, and downstream is actively restocking. The strategy is to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips in the short - term, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and conduct the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on coke [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3220 to 3210 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coil decreased from 3304 to 3272 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2930 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 3 yuan/ton to 3305 yuan/ton. The profit of hot - rolled coil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 24 yuan/ton [2]. Production - The daily average molten iron production increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, a 1.5% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 10.0 tons to 875.3 tons, a 1.2% increase [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 41.1 tons to 1513.7 tons, a 2.6% decrease. The rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 tons to 602.5 tons, a 3.1% decrease [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.5 to 9.3 (the value in the report is incomplete), a 5.4% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 23.7 tons to 916.4 tons, a 2.7% increase [2]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased. For example, the warehouse receipt cost of PB powder decreased from 835.9 to 829.3 yuan/ton. The basis of the 01 - contract for various powders increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 1189.3 tons to 3218.4 tons, a 58.6% increase. The global shipment volume decreased by 174.6 tons to 3213.8 tons, a 5.2% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 tons to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The monthly national pig iron production decreased by 374.7 tons to 6604.6 tons, a 5.4% decrease [4]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 171.6 tons to 14714.08 tons, a 1.2% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 tons to 8849.9 tons, a 2.5% decrease [4]. Coke Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1612 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 43 to 1729 yuan/ton, a 2.4% decrease [7]. Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.2 tons, a 0.2% increase [7]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 tons to 236.4 tons, a 1.5% decrease [7]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 tons to 900.0 tons, a 0.9% increase. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.2 tons to 59.9 tons, a 2.1% increase [7]. Coking Coal Price and Spread - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1420 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 32 to 1253 yuan/ton, a 2.5% decrease [7]. Supply - The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 tons to 851.8 tons, a 0.4% increase. The clean coal production increased by 1.5 tons to 434.9 tons, a 0.3% increase [7]. Demand - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.2 tons, a 0.2% increase [7]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased by 9.2 tons to 81.1 tons, a 10.2% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 tons to 1052.5 tons, a 2.2% increase [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal and coke futures indicate a complex market environment, with price adjustments and inventory changes impacting profitability and production levels across the industry [6]. Supply - As of October 30, the average daily production of coke from independent coking plants was 646,000 tons, remaining stable week-on-week, while the average daily production from 247 steel mills was 462,000 tons, showing a slight increase of 100 tons [3]. Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2.3636 million tons, reflecting a decrease of 35,400 tons week-on-week. The blast furnace operating rate was 81.75%, down by 2.96%, and the capacity utilization rate for ironmaking was 88.61%, down by 1.33%. The profitability of steel mills was at 45.02%, a decline of 2.60% [4]. Inventory - Total coke inventory reached 9.588 million tons as of October 30, an increase of 62,000 tons week-on-week. Independent coking plants held 599,000 tons, up by 12,000 tons, while steel mills had 6.291 million tons, down by 41,000 tons. Port inventory was at 2.699 million tons, increasing by 91,000 tons [5]. Profitability - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was -41 yuan, with regional variations: Shanxi at -44 yuan, Shandong at 20 yuan, Inner Mongolia at -101 yuan, and Hebei at 5 yuan [2]. Market Dynamics - The recent third round of price increases for coke was implemented on November 5, with expectations for further price adjustments due to rising coking coal prices providing cost support. However, environmental restrictions in regions like Tangshan and Shanxi have led to reduced pig iron production, exerting pressure on coke prices [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in coking coal futures and the second round of price increases by major coking enterprises indicate a complex market environment, with potential for further price adjustments despite current downward trends in spot prices [6] Supply - As of October 23, the average daily production of coking coal from independent coking plants was 646,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons week-on-week, while the average daily production from 247 steel mills was 461,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons week-on-week, leading to a total production of 1.107 million tons per day, down 5,000 tons week-on-week [3] Demand - The average daily pig iron production was 2.399 million tons as of October 23, a decrease of 10,500 tons week-on-week, with a blast furnace operating rate of 84.71%, up 0.44% week-on-week, and a capacity utilization rate of 89.94%, down 0.39% week-on-week. The profitability of steel mills was reported at 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79% week-on-week [4] Inventory - Total coking coal inventory reached 9.526 million tons as of October 23, an increase of 32,000 tons week-on-week. Independent coking enterprises held 586,000 tons, up 13,000 tons week-on-week, while steel mills had 6.332 million tons, down 63,000 tons week-on-week, and port inventories were at 2.608 million tons, up 81,000 tons week-on-week [5] Profitability - The average profit per ton of coking coal across 30 independent coking plants was reported at a loss of 41 yuan per ton, with specific regional performances showing losses of 44 yuan per ton in Shanxi, profits of 20 yuan per ton in Shandong, losses of 101 yuan per ton in Inner Mongolia, and profits of 5 yuan per ton in Hebei [2] Market Strategy - Despite recent adjustments, the overall outlook for the fourth quarter remains bullish, with recommendations for speculative buying of coking coal futures at lower prices and potential arbitrage strategies between coking coal and coking coal futures [6]

Market Review - The main contract for coking coal futures closed at 1646.5 CNY/ton, a slight decrease of 0.90% [1] Fundamental Summary - The China Coastal Bulk Freight Index (CBFI) is reported at 1027.14 points, while the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) increased by 5.8% to 698.59 points [2] - Baotailong (601011) announced a comprehensive overhaul of its coke oven equipment scheduled for October 2024, which has been completed. The upgraded coke oven incorporates advanced environmental technology and intelligent equipment, aligning with national green and low-carbon development policies, enhancing product quality and market competitiveness. The company will assess economic benefits based on market conditions to determine the specific timing for resuming operations [2] - The capacity utilization rate for independent coking enterprises is 75.18%, an increase of 0.05%. The average daily output of coke is 66.12, up by 0.04, while coke inventory stands at 63.84, an increase of 1.53. The total inventory of coking coal is 959.06, down by 78.65, with available days of coking coal at 10.9 days, a decrease of 0.9 days [2] Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, the supply side has stabilized as coking enterprises maintain normal production levels following the first round of price increases, alleviating profit pressures. However, demand has been affected by holiday logistics and rainfall in northern regions, leading to a decrease in inventory at steel mills and a general pressure on prices, resulting in limited replenishment of raw materials. Short-term expectations indicate wide fluctuations in coking coal prices [3] - Jinrui Futures notes that during the National Day holiday, pig iron production remained high, leading to a reduction in overall supply and an increase in demand for coking coal, accelerating inventory depletion and igniting expectations for replenishment post-holiday. However, due to significant inventory accumulation during the holiday and shrinking profits for steel mills, the outlook for steel demand in the fourth quarter appears weak, suggesting limited replenishment efforts and a pessimistic short-term price outlook for coking coal. Recommendations include short-selling strategies, with risks associated with unexpected growth in steel demand and tighter supply of dual coking coal [3]