免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本 以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞 达 研 究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改 。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | JM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1126.00 | +24.50↑ J主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 1674.00 | +39.50↑ | | 期货市场 | JM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 646763.00 | +28114.00↑ J期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 41830.00 | -869.00↓ | | | 焦煤前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | -82202.00 | -2065.00↓ 焦炭前20名合约净持仓（日，手） | 478.00 | +422.00↑ | | | JM9-5月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 84.00 | +1.0 ...

每经AI快讯，1月29日，焦炭期货主力合约涨4%，报1766元/吨。 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - The investment ratings for both the coke and coking coal industries are "Oscillating Weakly" under the dual influence of macro and micro factors [1]. Core View - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by both macro and micro factors, showing an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1124 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan/ton (-4.3%); the closing price of J2605 was 1673.5 yuan/ton, down 47.5 yuan/ton (-2.8%) [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: JM2605 had a trading volume of 1,088,191 lots, an open interest of 532,732 lots, and an open interest change of 29,998 lots; J2605 had a trading volume of 22,017 lots, an open interest of 38,429 lots, and an open interest change of 792 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Most spot prices remained unchanged, except for the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal in Tangshan, which decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 1220 yuan/ton [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of JM2605 in Shanxi increased by 50.5 yuan/ton to 167 yuan/ton; the basis of J2605 in Shanxi's quasi - first - grade delivered - to - factory price increased by 47.5 yuan/ton to - 141.5 yuan/ton; the spread between JM2605 and JM2609 remained unchanged at - 79.5 yuan/ton, and the spread between J2605 and J2609 increased by 2.5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - **CCI Index**: On January 20, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed that CCI Shanxi low - sulfur primary coking coal (S0.7) was 1608, CCI Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (S1.3) was 1260, and CCI Shanxi high - sulfur primary coking coal (S1.6) was 1249 [1]. - **Coking Coal Auction**: On January 19, the total online auction listing volume of coking coal was 294,000 tons, with a failure - to - sell rate of 1%, a 5% decrease from last Friday. The average premium was 33.15 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere was active, with most prices rising by 8 - 46 yuan/ton [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for coke is 0, and for coking coal is also 0 [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ★☆☆, meaning it is bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the market is not very operable [1] - Coke: ★★★, showing a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆, indicating that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is not very operable, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆☆, suggesting it is bullish, with a driving force for an upward trend, but the market is not very operable [1] - Silicon iron: ★☆★, the specific meaning is not clearly defined in the given content [1] Report's Core View - The overall market sentiment is cautious, and the supply-demand contradictions in various sectors are not significant. Different products are expected to have different trends, mainly including interval oscillations, weak oscillations, etc., and it is necessary to pay attention to market trends, policy expectations, and cost support [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Today's market rose first and then fell. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel increased slightly, production decreased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down. The demand for hot-rolled coil improved, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline, but the pressure still needs to be relieved. Steel mill profits have marginally recovered, but due to insufficient downstream carrying capacity, blast furnace复产 has slowed down, and molten iron production has declined. From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment has continued to widen, and the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment have continued to decline. Overall domestic demand remains weak, while steel exports reached a new high in December. The supply-demand contradiction is not significant, and the market sentiment is cautious. The market is expected to oscillate within an interval in the short term [2] Iron Ore - Today's market oscillated weakly. On the supply side, global shipments have seasonally declined month-on-month, and the phased supply peak has passed. The domestic arrival volume remains high in the short term, and port inventory continues to show an accumulation trend. The structural contradiction still exists but is expected to ease. On the demand side, the terminal demand in the off-season has improved month-on-month. This week, molten iron production stopped increasing and started to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has increased but is still at a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment demand still exists. The sentiment in the commodity market is fluctuating, and the fundamental situation of iron ore itself is relatively loose. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the risk of intensified high-level fluctuations [3] Coke - The price oscillated downward during the day. The first round of price increase for coke has been proposed and is expected to be implemented next week. Coking profits are average, daily production has slightly decreased, and coke inventory has slightly increased. The purchasing intention of traders has improved. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing raw material prices is still strong. The coke market is at a premium, and the market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, under the influence of the increase in total coking coal inventory and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data, coke is likely to follow a weak oscillation trend [4] Coking Coal - The price oscillated downward during the day. Yesterday, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal was 1,440 trucks. The production of coking coal mines has increased significantly, and the spot auction transactions have improved. Driven by the increase in the market price, the transaction price has also increased, and the terminal inventory has increased significantly. The total coking coal inventory has slightly increased, and the production-side inventory has slightly decreased, reflecting the market's winter storage actions. Overall, the supply of carbon elements is abundant, and downstream molten iron production remains at an off-season level. It is necessary to observe whether winter storage will continue. The profit level of steel is average, and the sentiment of suppressing raw material prices is still strong. The coking coal market is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market has certain expectations for coal-related policies. However, under the influence of the increase in total inventory and high Mongolian coal customs clearance data, the price is likely to oscillate weakly [6] Silicon Manganese - The price oscillated downward during the day. Driven by the rebound in the market, the spot price of manganese ore has increased. Currently, there are structural problems in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for the furnace. If the reduction of oxidized ore is large, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase. The spot transaction prices of manganese ore have all increased last week. On the demand side, molten iron production has decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese has slightly decreased, and the silicon manganese inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support strength [7] Silicon Iron - The price oscillated downward during the day. Affected by relevant policy documents, the price is relatively strong. The market's expectation of coal supply guarantee has increased, and there are certain expectations for a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices. On the demand side, molten iron production has rebounded to a high-level range. The export demand has decreased to over 20,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant. The production of magnesium metal has increased month-on-month, and the secondary demand has marginally increased. Overall, the demand still has resilience. The supply of silicon iron has decreased significantly, and the inventory has slightly decreased. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" and observe the cost support strength [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the downward trend of coke was driven by increased coking coal supply and weak downstream demand, along with policy factors. However, in December, with the expected macro - economic improvement and potential coal mine production cuts, the downward pressure on coke may ease, and the main contract is expected to gradually stabilize. The main risk is the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [2][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Current Market Situation of Coke Futures - In November, the J2601 contract of coke futures dropped 11.4%, with the lowest price at 1562.0 yuan/ton. As of December 3, the main contract closed at 1624.5 yuan/ton, down 1.23% daily [2] Spot Market Situation - Since mid - November, coking coal prices have weakened due to increased supply and futures drag. As of November 28, the daily output of coking coal in 523 mines was 76.4 tons, up 2.6 tons/day from November 7. In November, the Ganqimaodu Port's cumulative customs clearance increased by 38.6% month - on - month and 5.5% year - on - year. The coking coal auction failure rate rose to 30% - 60% in mid - to - late November. On December 3, the price of low - sulfur coking coal in Linfen, Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal at Ganqimaodu Port dropped significantly from the November high. On December 1, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented, but the subsequent price cut space may be limited [3] Supply and Demand Analysis - In the short term, coke supply has increased while demand has decreased. As of November 28, the combined daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 110.08 tons, up 1.19 tons week - on - week. The daily output of molten iron in 247 steel mills was 234.68 tons, down 1.60 tons week - on - week. In the future, the demand pressure on coke is expected to ease [4] Overall Conclusion - In November, coke futures declined due to negative factors in the fundamentals and policies. In December, with the expected macro - economic improvement and potential coal mine production cuts, the negative drivers for coke are weakening, and the main contract is expected to stabilize at the lower edge of the shock range. The main risk is the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in coking coal futures has been significant, with the 2601 contract experiencing an 11.4% drop in November, reaching a low of 1562.0 yuan/ton, nearing the lower boundary of the fluctuation range since July [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Coking coal supply has increased while demand has decreased, leading to a bearish market outlook. The first round of coking coal price reductions has occurred, and coal prices continue to decline, allowing coking enterprises to maintain profit margins [3] - As of November 28, the average daily production of coking coal from 523 coking coal mines was 764,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons per day compared to the week of November 7 [1][3] - The average daily output of iron water from 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to the previous week, but still higher than the same period last year [3] Market Conditions - The market atmosphere has weakened due to increased supply, with the coking coal auction failure rate rising to 30%-60% in mid to late November. The price of low-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was reported at 1510 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton from the November peak [2] - The first round of coking coal price reductions has been implemented, with the price at Rizhao Port for premium wet quenching coke at 1620 yuan/ton and the ex-factory price at 1450 yuan/ton, with expectations for further price reductions [2] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to improve with potential positive signals in December, alongside expectations of production cuts in coal mines at year-end, which may alleviate cost pressures for coking coal [4] - The overall bearish factors in the market are expected to slow down, and the main contract for coking coal may stabilize at the lower end of the fluctuation range [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - **Steel**: The demand for five major steel products remains at a relatively high level, improving compared to October, but the overall demand intensity in November is weaker than the same period last year. Due to significant production cuts, the supply - demand gap for rebar is favorable with good de - stocking. However, for hot - rolled coils, production cuts are limited, with supply and demand basically balanced and slow de - stocking of high inventories. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar for the January contract is expected to converge. Considering the seasonal weakening of future demand and high plate inventories, the upward price drive is not obvious, but production cuts support steel prices, so prices are expected to fluctuate. The rebar is expected to fluctuate between 3000 - 3200 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coils between 3200 - 3350 yuan/ton. The basis of rebar will strengthen, while that of hot - rolled coils is weak, and the spread between them will continue to converge. There is an arbitrage opportunity of going long on rebar and short on iron ore for the January contract [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated at a high level. The global iron ore shipment decreased week - on - week, while the arrival volume at 45 ports increased. On the demand side, the steel mill's profit margin declined slightly, iron water production decreased, and the restocking demand of steel mills increased slightly. The production of five major steel products continued to rise, inventories continued to decline seasonally, and the apparent demand declined. Port inventories increased, the port clearance volume increased slightly, and the steel mill's equity ore inventory decreased. Looking forward, iron water production will decline seasonally this week, and the inventory contradiction of steel mills has improved significantly. With the current profit margin and inventory level of steel mills, it is not enough to trigger a negative feedback. Without new macro - drivers, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral market. It is recommended to wait and see when the discount is repaired [4]. - **Coke**: Last week, coke futures fluctuated and declined. After mainstream coke enterprises proposed a fourth - round price increase, steel mills proposed a first - round price cut. On the supply side, the price cut range of coking coal in the Shanxi market expanded, coking profits were repaired, coke price adjustments lagged behind coking coal, coke enterprises increased prices, and coke production increased after price cuts. On the demand side, steel mills increased maintenance due to losses, iron water production declined, steel prices fluctuated weakly, steel mill profits decreased, and there was a willingness to suppress coke prices. In terms of inventory, coke - making plants and steel mills increased inventories, ports decreased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position, with the supply - demand situation of coke weakening. Coke futures were dragged down by the sharp decline of coking coal futures. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1500 - 1650 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Last week, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, and the spot market accelerated its decline, showing a pattern of futures - spot resonance decline. On the supply side, coal mine shipments worsened, some coal mines stopped production, the import of Mongolian coal increased, and the port inventory continued to rise. On the demand side, steel mills increased losses and maintenance, iron water production declined, coke production increased slightly after the recovery of coking profits, and the restocking demand weakened. In terms of inventory, coal washing plants, ports, and coke enterprises reduced inventories, while coal mines, ports of entry, and steel mills increased inventories, and the overall inventory increased slightly in the middle position. Strategically, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the unilateral market, with the range of 1000 - 1120 yuan/ton, and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on coke and short on coking coal [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East, North, and South China increased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts also rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 17 yuan/ton to 3110 yuan/ton [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: Spot prices in East and South China remained unchanged or increased by 10 yuan/ton, while in North China it decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The 05, 10, and 01 contracts all rose, with the 01 contract increasing by 9 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The steel billet price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2980 yuan/ton, the slab price remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar remained unchanged at 3231 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar decreased by 7 yuan/ton to 3171 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of East China hot - rolled coils increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 64 yuan/ton, the profit of South China rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 116 yuan/ton, and other regional profits remained unchanged [2]. Production - The daily average iron water production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The production of five major steel products increased by 5.8 tons to 855.7 tons, an increase of 0.7%. Rebar production decreased by 1.9 tons to 206.1 tons, a decrease of 0.9%, among which electric - furnace production increased by 2.6 tons to 29.3 tons, an increase of 9.5%, and converter production decreased by 4.4 tons to 176.7 tons, a decrease of 2.4%. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 3.0 tons to 319.0 tons, an increase of 0.9% [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 32.3 tons to 1400.8 tons, a decrease of 2.3%. Rebar inventory decreased by 21.9 tons to 531.5 tons, a decrease of 4.0%. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.2 tons to 400.9 tons, a decrease of 0.3% [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.2 tons to 10.4 tons, an increase of 12.7%. The apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 6.2 tons to 888.0 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 2.8 tons to 227.9 tons, a decrease of 1.2%. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.2 tons to 320.2 tons, a decrease of 1.3% [2]. Iron Ore Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - **Warehouse Receipt Cost**: The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Carajás fines and Brazilian blended fines [4]. - **01 Contract Basis**: The basis of various iron ore powders decreased, with the largest decrease of 38.1% for Carajás fines [4]. - **Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 24.5, a decrease of 2.0%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 to - 50.5, an increase of 1.9%; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 26.0, a decrease of 1.9% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased, with the largest decrease of 1.2% for Brazilian blended fines. The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price decreased slightly, while the Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) increased by 548.2 tons to 2817.1 tons, an increase of 24.2%. The global shipment volume (weekly) decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, a decrease of 6.8%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 500.6 tons to 11130.9 tons, a decrease of 4.3% [4]. Demand - The daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The 45 - port daily average port clearance volume (weekly) increased by 3.6 tons to 330.6 tons, an increase of 1.1%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 49.7 tons to 6554.9 tons, a decrease of 0.8%. The national monthly crude steel production decreased by 149.3 tons to 7199.7 tons, a decrease of 2.0% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 108.6 tons to 15210.12 tons, an increase of 0.7%. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) decreased by 58.8 tons to 8942.5 tons, a decrease of 0.7%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) remained unchanged at 20.0 days [4]. Coke Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipts) remained unchanged. The coke 01 contract decreased by 33 yuan/ton to 1575 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1731 yuan/ton. The coking profit (weekly) decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton [7]. Supply - The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Demand - The iron water production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.7 tons, a decrease of 0.7% [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory increased by 4.0 tons to 884.7 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 6.5 tons to 71.8 tons, an increase of 9.9%. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.2 tons to 625.5 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, a decrease of 2.94% [7]. Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased by 2.0 tons to - 3.6 tons, an increase of 55.34% [7]. Coking Coal Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton. The coking coal 01 contract decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 1067 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 1152 yuan/ton. The sample coal mine profit (weekly) decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 559 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.8% [7]. Supply - The raw coal production increased by 4.6 tons to 856.1 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The clean coal production increased by 4.9 tons to 438.8 tons, an increase of 1.1% [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coke production. The daily average coke production of all - sample coking plants increased by 1.1 tons to 63.8 tons, an increase of 1.7%. The daily average coke production of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.3 tons, an increase of 0.2% [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 9.6 tons to 107.6 tons, an increase of 9.8%. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.9 tons to 1010.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7%. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 4.2 tons to 801.3 tons, an increase of 0.5%. The port inventory increased by 3.0 tons to 294.5 tons, an increase of 1.0% [7].

机构观点 光大期货： 供应方面，部分原料煤价格下跌让利，焦企盈利水平有所修复，产地焦企开工情况稍有回升，下游对焦 炭的刚需采购，厂内出货情况较好，焦炭库存继续回落。需求端，近期期货盘面连续走弱，且钢材市场 表现难有明显改善，市场情绪一般，钢材利润修复不及预期，钢厂盈利能力不佳，成材出库一般，预计 短期焦炭盘面宽幅震荡运行。 消息面 据外媒报道，煤炭生产商哥伦比亚自然资源公司（CNR）向反垄断机构SIC提交的文件显示，该公司称 其收购哥伦比亚Puerto Nuevo（新港）煤炭码头的提议不会构成垄断，理由是其市场份额将保持在20% 以下。目前已经通过Puerto Nuevo港出口煤炭一段时间，去年通过该港口出口了245万吨煤炭。 截止至11月19日，秦唐沧三大港区煤炭库存2581.3万吨，较上周同期增加186.4万吨。 截至2025年11月18日，海运煤炭运价指数（OCFI）报收1072.85点，与11月11日相比下行144.58点，跌 幅为11.88%。 宝城期货： 整体来看，焦炭短期基本面好转，但持续性预计有限，需求担忧依然存在，且市场对前期的主要向上驱 动"成本端支撑"分歧增加，多空博弈渐增，焦炭期货震荡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal market is experiencing fluctuations with recent price adjustments and varying profitability among different regions, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic in the industry [6]. Supply - As of November 13, the average daily production of coking coal from independent coking plants is 630,000 tons, showing a week-on-week decrease of 6,000 tons. The average daily production from 247 steel mills is 462,000 tons, with a slight increase of 1,000 tons week-on-week, leading to a total production of 1,092,000 tons per day, which is a decrease of 5,000 tons week-on-week [3]. Demand - The average daily pig iron production is 2.3688 million tons, reflecting an increase of 26,600 tons week-on-week. The blast furnace operating rate is 82.81%, down by 0.32% week-on-week, while the capacity utilization rate for ironmaking is 88.80%, up by 1.00% week-on-week. The profit margin for steel mills stands at 38.96%, a decrease of 0.87% week-on-week [4]. Inventory - As of November 13, the total inventory of coking coal is 9.4 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 74,000 tons. Independent coking plants hold 582,000 tons, down by 2,000 tons week-on-week, while steel mills have 6.224 million tons, decreasing by 42,000 tons week-on-week. Port inventories are at 2.595 million tons, down by 30,000 tons week-on-week [5]. Price Trends - As of November 17, coking coal futures are experiencing low volatility with a significant drop in night trading. The main contract for coking coal (2601) increased by 40.5 (+2.43%) to 1710.0, while the far-month contract (2605) rose by 35.5 (+1.96%) to 1847.5. The price gap between contracts has strengthened to -138.0 [1]. Profitability - The average profit per ton of coking coal across 30 independent coking plants is -34 yuan. In specific regions, the average profit for Shanxi's primary coking coal is -37 yuan, while Shandong's primary coking coal shows a profit of 26 yuan. Inner Mongolia's secondary coking coal has an average loss of 90 yuan, and Hebei's primary coking coal has a profit of 16 yuan [2]. Market Sentiment - The recent market sentiment indicates a divergence between futures and spot prices, with port trade quotes declining. The fourth round of price increases for coking coal has been implemented, but there are still plans for further increases. The supply side shows some price easing in Shanxi, while demand is pressured by low steel mill profits and environmental regulations affecting production [6]. Strategy Outlook - The market is viewed with a bearish bias, with a trading range reference of 1600-1750, suggesting a cautious approach in the current environment [6].

Report Information - Report Title: Coke Daily Report - Report Date: November 11, 2025 - Research Team: Black Team of the Research Center [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content Summary by Relevant Data Coke Prices - The latest price of Shanxi quasi - first wet quenching coke is 1591.62, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 54.61, a monthly increase of 109.23, and a year - on - year decrease of 15.71% [2] - The latest price of Hebei quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1845.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year increase of 1.93% [2] - The latest price of Shandong quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1770.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.29% [2] - The latest price of Jiangsu quasi - first dry quenching coke is 1810.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 55.00, a monthly increase of 110.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 14.01% [2] - The latest price of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is 1280.00, with no daily change, a weekly increase of 50.00, a monthly increase of 100.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 17.42% [2] Production and Utilization Rates - The blast furnace operating rate is 87.81, with a weekly decrease of 0.80, a monthly decrease of 2.74, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.67% [2] - The daily average iron water output is 234.22, with a weekly decrease of 2.14, a monthly decrease of 7.32, and a year - on - year increase of 0.07% [2] - The coking capacity utilization rate is 72.74, with a weekly decrease of 0.42, a monthly decrease of 2.26, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.49% [2] - The daily average coke output is 53.14, with a weekly decrease of 0.16, a monthly increase of 0.83, and a year - on - year increase of 5.19% [2] Inventory Data - The coking plant inventory is 36.50, with a weekly decrease of 1.02, a monthly decrease of 6.04, and a year - on - year decrease of 17.16% [2] - The port inventory is 202.11, with a weekly decrease of 8.99, a monthly increase of 7.02, and a year - on - year increase of 16.73% [2] - The steel mill inventory is 626.64, with a weekly decrease of 2.41, a monthly decrease of 24.18, and a year - on - year increase of 7.76% [2] - The steel mill inventory days are 11.07, with a weekly decrease of 0.50, a monthly decrease of 0.35, and a year - on - year decrease of 0.81% [2] Futures Market Data - The latest price of the 05 futures contract is 1875, with a daily decrease of 20.50, a weekly decrease of 10.00, a monthly increase of 61.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 11.05% [2] - The latest price of the 09 futures contract is 1953, with a daily decrease of 22.50, a weekly decrease of 9.50, a monthly increase of 48.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 8.80% [2] - The latest price of the 01 futures contract is 1748, with a daily decrease of 16.50, a weekly decrease of 5.50, a monthly increase of 86.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.81% [2] - The 05 basis is 29.97, with a daily increase of 20.50, a weekly increase of 68.72, a monthly increase of 72.08, and a year - on - year decrease of 13.21 [2] - The 09 basis is - 48.03, with a daily increase of 22.50, a weekly increase of 68.22, a monthly increase of 85.58, and a year - on - year decrease of 57.71 [2] - The 01 basis is 156.97, with a daily increase of 16.50, a weekly increase of 64.22, a monthly increase of 47.08, and a year - on - year increase of 33.79 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread is - 127.00, with a daily increase of 4.00, a weekly increase of 4.50, a monthly increase of 25.00, and a year - on - year decrease of 47.00 [2] - The 9 - 1 spread is - 78.00, with a daily increase of 2.00, a weekly decrease of 0.50, a monthly increase of 13.50, and a year - on - year decrease of 44.50 [2] - The 1 - 5 spread is 205.00, with a daily decrease of 6.00, a weekly decrease of 4.00, a monthly decrease of 38.50, and a year - on - year increase of 91.50 [2]