7月中旬以来焦炭连续七轮涨价，尤其是进入8月份，焦炭基本面趋紧，为价格上涨提供了进一步的支 撑。不过，后期来看，虽然钢焦企业焦炭库存均维持偏低水平，但高温多雨天气影响下，终端钢材市场 需求表现不佳。预计随着钢材持续累库，钢厂利润收缩，钢焦博弈加剧，焦炭涨价节奏趋缓。 7月中旬以来，国内焦炭现货价格迄今经历了连续七轮涨价。其背后也受到焦炭基本面的支撑。具体来 看，随着焦炭价格上涨，市场投机贸易需求增多，下游买涨不买跌心态下，整体采购积极，这使得焦化 厂焦炭库存持续下降，8月份焦化厂库存基本清空。 8月中旬后，虽然焦化利润修复，山西、内蒙古地区焦化厂开工有提升，但山东、河北及河南地区焦化 陆续执行限产，国内焦炭供应整体未有持续增加，焦化厂库存维持低位水平。 卓创资讯数据显示，截至8月21日，国内主流独立焦化厂月平均开工负荷74.65%，环比上周开工略降 0.13个百分点，较上月开工增加0.61个百分点。同期国内主流焦化厂焦炭库存降至27.6万吨，较上月库 存减少2.8万吨，降幅9.21%，库存天数0.83天，焦化厂库存为年内次低水平。 不过，从终端市场看，7月中旬以来受高温多雨等季节性因素影响，国内钢材需求明显减 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: Some coal mines are adjusting work plans and organizing production according to 276 working days, leading to a slight decline in domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, with some high - priced resources having weak transactions and coal prices starting to回调. However, coal mine inventories are low, and there is a strong willingness to hold prices. Although downstream enterprises are still reluctant to accept high - priced coal, after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Coke**: After the sixth round of coke price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. But the procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down. Although the arrival of coke at steel mills has improved and inventory has increased, the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Some coal mines adjust work plans, reducing domestic coal production. Downstream procurement is cautious, and high - priced resources have weak transactions. Coal mine inventories are low, with strong price - holding intentions [2]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1190, and the basis is 2.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [2]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 805.8 million tons, port inventory is 255.5 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 829.4 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1890.7 million tons, a decrease of 28.1 million tons from last week [2]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions [2]. - **Expectation**: Downstream enterprises are reluctant to accept high - priced coal, but after the sixth round of coke price increases, there are expectations of further increases. It is expected that coking coal prices will be slightly strong in the short term [2]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and limited supply growth [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Slower procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4]. Coke - **Fundamentals**: After the sixth round of price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and production enthusiasm has recovered. The procurement rhythm of traders has slowed down, and the inventory of coking enterprises is still at a low level [6]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1620, and the basis is - 82, with the spot at a discount to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 609.8 million tons, port inventory is 215.1 million tons, independent coking enterprise inventory is 39.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 864.2 million tons, a decrease of 17.9 million tons from last week [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position of coke is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. - **Expectation**: The arrival of coke at steel mills has improved, and inventory has increased. But the high - level operation of steel mills still guarantees the rigid demand for coke. Affected by pre - parade production restrictions, the increase in coke supply is limited, and it is expected that coke prices will be stable to slightly strong in the short term [6]. - **Positive Factors**: Rising pig iron production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [8]. - **Negative Factors**: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of restocking demand [8]. Inventory Data - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 million tons, an increase of 17 million tons from last week [20]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 million tons, a decrease of 3.6 million tons from last week [25]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [29]. Other Data - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [42]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [46].

但在五轮涨价后，焦炭是否会迎来拐点，成为市场关注的焦点。对此，卓创资讯分析师刘璐璐表示，在 供应端利多支持下，焦炭价格短期仍将维持稳中偏强运行。 据刘璐璐介绍，虽然随着近期期货价格从7月下旬高点回落，市场情绪较前期明显降温，焦炭投机贸易 采购需求减少，但近期煤矿超产核查引发焦煤供应收紧担忧。与此同时，北方强降雨打乱铁路运输节 奏，而重大活动前的环保限产预期等因素仍集中扰动市场。在此背景下，包括焦炭在内的黑色系商品盘 面仍然震荡偏强运行。 7月中旬以来，焦炭现货价格连续涨五轮，累计上涨250-275元／吨，截至8月6日，河北唐山准一干熄焦 送到价1645元／吨，累计涨幅超20%。 在此背景下，焦炭现货市场也呈现"三少"特征——焦化厂亏损导致增产意愿少；贸易商放货量少；暴雨 影响下钢厂到货量少。"更重要的是，上游焦煤价格始终居高不下，焦炭成本端仍有支撑。"刘璐璐进一 步说，因此，在低库存+高成本的双重护航下，短期内焦炭价格维持稳中偏强运行，近期仍有第六轮提 涨预期。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤： 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-31） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 6、预期：焦炭第四轮涨价落地，焦企利润有所修复，焦企对原料煤继续增库中，加之部分焦化企业提 涨焦炭第五轮，市场继续走强下，焦企目前开工率稳定，对于焦煤采购积极性维持，但考虑终端需求及 利润压制，继续上行空间有限，预计短期焦煤价格或偏强运行。 1、基本面：焦炭第四轮提涨快速落地，焦企盈利水平得到改善，但原料端焦煤价格仍有小幅上涨，焦 企生产成本较高，开工多维持前期状态，暂无明显提产意愿。同时，下游对焦炭需求较好，当前焦企走 货较为顺畅，厂内库存多处低位；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1570，基差-106.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存639万吨，港口库存199.1万吨，独立焦企库存55.6 ...

焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-18） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿逐步复工复产，焦煤生产有所恢复，随着焦炭首轮提涨快速落地，焦煤市场情绪高涨， 下游采购需求增加，煤矿出货顺畅，鉴于部分煤矿生产尚未恢复正常的影响下，部分煤矿报价继续上探， 短期在补库支撑下煤价仍会延续向好趋势；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差21.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：下游钢厂接涨第一轮提价后，利润空间挤压，但盈利仍尚可，且目前铁水产量处于 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-7-2） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 6、预期：终端铁水继续回升，需求支撑较稳。加之钢厂盈利有所好转，有小幅补库行为，部分焦企由 于盈利不佳，有小幅限产，但焦炭出货整体正常，故当前补库需求仍在，但对原料端的采购也相对谨慎， 高价资源成交依旧一般，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：部分矿点正陆续复产，产量仍未恢复至正常水平。下游补库需求逐步释放，部分中间环节 也适当采购，产地库存去化，市场成交开始回暖，线上竞拍成交表现也明显好转，部分优质资源和竞拍 前期超跌煤种新成交小幅上涨，影响市场情绪也偏乐观；中性 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差125.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存6 ...

Group 1 - The average price of coke in Shanxi region is 1300 CNY/ton, showing a weak performance compared to the same period last week [1] - On June 20, some enterprises in Xinjiang reduced their coke ex-factory prices by 50 CNY/ton [1] - The mainstream dry coke price in Heze market remains stable at 890 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - As of June 23, the main futures contract for coke closed at 1385.0 CNY/ton, with a decline of 0.22% [2] - The highest price reached 1394.0 CNY/ton and the lowest was 1370.0 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 21,314 lots [2] Group 3 - On June 20, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported 90 coke futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [3] - Qinhuangdao coal inventory recorded 5.78 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous trading day [3] - Recent reports indicate that coke profits are continuously shrinking, leading to a decline in independent coke enterprises' output and a reduction in overall supply [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-23） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：近日环保安监趋严，煤矿开工产量小幅下降，但仍处于偏高水平。然下游需求依旧显露疲 态，市场观望情绪依旧存在，用煤企业采购体量较小，煤矿出货压力增加，部分矿点报价继续下调。加 之焦炭价格继续走弱背景下，炼焦煤价格支撑较弱；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差145；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：部分钢厂对焦炭采购价格提出第四轮降价，市场情绪不断走低，加之成材消费淡 ...

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant decline in coking coal futures, with the primary contract dropping over 3%, indicating a bearish outlook for the market in the near term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 8, coking coal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 1465.5 yuan, with the main contract closing at 1466.0 yuan, reflecting a drop of 3.04% [1]. - The overall sentiment in the market remains neutral to bearish, with no significant improvement in the fundamentals post-holiday [2]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - Zhengxin Futures predicts that both coking coal and coke will continue to exhibit weakness, citing limited impact from recent financial policies and a lack of substantial positive news from the real estate sector [2]. - Dayue Futures suggests that the likelihood of further declines in coking coal prices is high due to a continued loose supply environment and weak downstream demand, particularly as steel mills face pressure from high inventory levels [3]. - Shenyin Wanguo Futures highlights the importance of monitoring the price range of 1350-1400 yuan, indicating that the failure of the second round of price increases and seasonal demand peaks may lead to a downward adjustment in prices [4].