1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views 2.1. Coking Coal - In the short - term, coking coal supply will be tight as some mines enter the holiday and more will shut down for the Spring Festival, while demand has declined as some coking enterprises have completed winter storage replenishment. The overall coking coal price is stable but slightly weak [2]. - With the downstream coking and steel enterprises in stable production and still having some replenishment needs, but limited by poor steel mill profits, weak terminal demand, and shrinking steel market trading volume, the demand for coking coal will be limited. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short - term [2]. 2.2. Coke - After the first round of coke price increase, coking enterprises' production enthusiasm has increased, but high raw coal prices limit their profit and production increase space. Some low - inventory steel mills still have replenishment needs, and coking enterprises' coke inventory is decreasing. However, due to the volatile finished product prices and obvious off - season characteristics, the steel mills' replenishment is limited. The coke supply - demand structure is approaching balance, and it is expected that the coke price will be stable or slightly strong in the short - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Analysis 3.1.1. Coking Coal - Supply is expected to be tight in the short - term as more coal mines will shut down for the Spring Festival. Some coking enterprises have completed winter storage, demand has decreased, new orders are few, auction conditions have weakened, and the overall price is stable but weak [2]. 3.1.2. Coke - After the first - round price increase, coking enterprises' profits have recovered, most are operating at normal loads, supply is relatively stable. Although some coal prices have declined, the overall coking coal price is still high, providing cost support [8]. 3.2. Basis Analysis 3.2.1. Coking Coal - The spot market price is 1,180, and the basis is 38.5, indicating the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. 3.2.2. Coke - The spot market price is 1,620, and the basis is - 60.5, indicating the spot price is lower than the futures price [8]. 3.3. Inventory Analysis 3.3.1. Coking Coal - Steel mill inventory is 801万吨, port inventory is 295万吨, independent coking enterprise inventory is 861万吨, and the total sample inventory is 1,957万吨, a decrease of 21万吨 from last week [2]. 3.3.2. Coke - Steel mill inventory is 626万吨, port inventory is 187万吨, independent coking enterprise inventory is 45万吨, and the total sample inventory is 858万吨, a decrease of 1万吨 from last week [8]. 3.4. Market Trend Analysis 3.4.1. Coking Coal - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend. The main contract has a net short position, and the short position is decreasing [2][3]. 3.4.2. Coke - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend. The main contract has a net long position, and the long position is increasing [8]. 3.5. Price Information 3.5.1. Coking Coal - Imported Russian and Australian coking coal spot prices at various ports are provided on February 2, 2026, with some prices having changes [11]. 3.5.2. Coke - Port metallurgical coke price indices on February 2, 2026, including different types, ports, origins, and prices, are shown, and most prices remain unchanged [13]. 3.6. Inventory Changes - Coking coal port inventory is 295万吨, a decrease of 0.1万吨 from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1万吨, an increase of 1万吨 from last week [21]. - Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3万吨, a decrease of 69.2万吨 from last week; coke inventory is 42.5万吨, an increase of 3.5万吨 from last week [25]. - Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8万吨, an increase of 4.3万吨 from last week; coke inventory is 626.7万吨, a decrease of 13.3万吨 from last week [30]. 3.7. Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].

Group 1 - The benchmark price of coke on January 19 is 1391.25 CNY/ton, a decrease of 3.55% compared to the beginning of the month (1442.50 CNY/ton) [1] - On January 19, the main futures contract for coke closed at 1721.0 CNY/ton, with a decline of 1.04%, reaching a high of 1762.0 CNY/ton and a low of 1713.5 CNY/ton, with a trading volume of 23,136 lots [2] - In December, China's coke and semi-coke exports reached 1 million tons, an increase of 80.2% year-on-year, while the total export volume for the year was 7.94 million tons, a decrease of 4.5% year-on-year [3] Group 2 - The analysis from a futures research report indicates that production cuts in coking plants have led to a decrease in coke output, resulting in a marginal improvement in supply and demand, with expectations for a price increase in the near term [4] - The anticipated price increase is expected to be limited, and after the adjustment of coke basis, the momentum for further price increases may weaken [4] - With a significant increase in inventory on the cost side, the support for coke prices from costs is also expected to be weak, indicating limited upward space for coke prices in January [4]

Core Viewpoint - After four rounds of price reductions, the coking coal price has initiated its first price increase plan for 2026, with many companies receiving the price increase notice last week [1]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Since late December 2025, coking plants have transitioned from profitability to losses, with losses continuing to expand [6]. - The average loss per ton of coke last week was 65 yuan, an increase of 20 yuan week-on-week, while the profit for rebar steel fluctuated around 60 yuan per ton [7]. - Coking profits have been declining due to relatively stable coking coal prices, leading to a situation where coking plants are now operating at a loss [7]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall supply and demand for coke are weak, with total inventory accelerating accumulation. Both independent coking plants and steel mills have seen slight declines in production [7]. - The average daily production of independent coking enterprises is 634,500 tons, while steel mill coking enterprises maintain a daily production of 467,200 tons, both remaining stable but below last year's levels [8]. - Steel mills currently hold 6.5 million tons of coke inventory, which is at a relatively low level, with only 12 days of available supply [8]. Group 3: Winter Storage and Market Outlook - Due to the late timing of the Spring Festival this year, winter storage replenishment has been delayed, and most steel mills remain cautious about replenishing inventory due to poor terminal demand expectations [9]. - The independent pricing ability of the coking industry is still weak, with coke prices primarily influenced by coking coal and steel prices [9]. - The outlook for coke prices is limited, as steel mill profits have not improved, and the overall supply of raw materials remains relatively loose, suggesting that coke prices may experience limited upward movement [9].

Group 1 - The recent decline in spot prices for coke has occurred four times within a month, attributed to multiple factors including reduced demand from steel mills and a decrease in iron water production [1] - Steel mills have entered a loss phase since October last year, leading to a 12-week consecutive decline in iron water output, which has weakened the demand for coke [1] - The inventory ratio of coke in steel and coking plants is at a three-year low of 7.03, with large and medium-sized steel mills having only 12.1 days of available coke, which is 1.1 days lower than the same period in 2024 [1] Group 2 - Despite a temporary recovery in coking profits, there has been no significant increase in coke supply, with daily production remaining stable between 620,000 to 650,000 tons and capacity utilization between 71.5% to 73% [2] - The recent decline in coking coal prices has not led to a notable increase in coking coal production, with a decrease of 49,500 tons in daily output reported in the last week of December [2] - There are signs of recovery in daily iron water production, with an increase of 8,800 tons in the last two weeks of December, indicating potential for further growth in iron water output [2]

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is showing a predominantly positive trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 1.79% [1] - Coking coal prices have seen a recent upward trend due to improved profitability in the coking industry, leading to increased operational activity among coking enterprises [2] - However, there is a noted decline in the operating rates of steel mills, indicating a weakening of real demand, which may lead to accumulated inventory pressures for coking enterprises [2] Group 2 - Some futures companies suggest that the current demand for coking coal is weak, with steel mills controlling their intake and exerting downward pressure on raw material prices [2] - The continuous decline in coal prices is reducing support for coking coal prices, leading to a weakening sentiment among coking enterprises [2] - Despite improved profits for coking enterprises, there is an expectation of a short-term weak performance for coking coal, with suggested trading ranges between 1600-1650 yuan/ton [2]

Group 1 - The coal futures market in China is mostly showing a downward trend, with coking coal futures experiencing fluctuations and a current increase of approximately 2.12% [1] - Coking coal supply and demand have both increased this week, leading to a rise in inventory levels after two weeks of decline, with production growth outpacing demand growth [1] - Steel demand is currently weak due to the off-season, causing pressure on coking coal prices as steel mills face losses [1] Group 2 - The auction prices for coking coal are primarily declining, resulting in some coking enterprises operating at minimal profit margins, while overall production continues to rise [2] - High furnace utilization rates remain stable, but steel mills are adopting a cautious approach to procurement due to shrinking profits from falling steel prices [2] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in coking coal prices in the short term, influenced by changes in coking profits and costs [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the coking coal price has experienced a significant increase due to cost support and downstream steel mill restocking demand, with a cumulative price increase of 220 yuan/ton as of November 19 [1] - Coking coal prices have shown a "V" shaped trend in 2025, with a notable decline in the first half of the year, where prices dropped from 1650 yuan/ton to 1180 yuan/ton, a decrease of approximately 28.48% [2] - The rebound in coking coal prices began in late July, with a strong upward trend observed, although there were two brief corrections in September due to weak steel mill sales and profit pressures [3] Group 2 - As of November 21, the price of coking coal in Shanghai reached 1630 yuan/ton, marking a 38.14% increase from the July low [5] - The driving force behind the price increase in the second half of 2025 is attributed to rising coking coal costs and a tightening supply-demand balance, with coking coal prices in Shanxi reaching 1655 yuan/ton, a 53.95% increase since July [6][7] - The increase in coking coal prices has directly raised production costs for downstream steel mills, leading to a squeeze on their profit margins, with an increase in iron water costs by 90 yuan/ton due to the rise in coking coal prices [8] Group 3 - The continuous price increases have led to a narrowing profit margin for steel mills, which are now less willing to offer discounts, despite high iron water production supporting rigid demand for coking coal [9] - The expectation is that the upward momentum in coking coal prices may face resistance due to weakening steel prices and seasonal demand reduction, potentially leading to a decline in coking coal prices by the end of November or early December [8][9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: After the fourth round of coke price increase, coke enterprise profits have slightly recovered, and daily hot metal production has increased, improving demand. However, downstream inventory is at a reasonable level, and the procurement pace has slowed. Considering the limited profitability of downstream coke and steel enterprises, procurement remains mainly for essential needs. Therefore, coking coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke**: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has slightly eased. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, limiting the enthusiasm for increasing production. Environmental protection has also affected coke supply. Currently, coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory. Although the market sentiment has cooled slightly, considering the stable and slightly increasing daily coke consumption due to the resumption of some blast furnaces and the limited short - term supply, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of production in major coal - producing areas is slower than expected, and safety production assessments may further suppress output. Market sentiment has cooled, downstream procurement is cautious, and intermediate trade has become less active. Coke enterprise开工 has declined, and there is strong resistance to high - priced coal. Although coal mines mainly execute previous orders and mostly hold prices, some have made slight adjustments [4]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1380, and the basis is 188, with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 781.1 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 819.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1895.4 million tons, a decrease of 76.2 million tons from last week [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main coking coal position is net long, and the long position is increasing [4]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has eased slightly. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, and environmental protection has affected supply. Coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1680, and the basis is 10.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 650.8 million tons, port inventory is 195.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 42.5 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 888.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.1 million tons from last week [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The main coke position is net short, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. **Price** The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on November 14 (17:30), including prices, price changes, and other information for different types of metallurgical coke in various ports [11]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 1770.0 yuan, with a current price of 1773.5 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.31% [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the short-term coking coal market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to high raw material prices and reduced production from coking enterprises, leading to low inventory levels [2] - Nanhua Futures predicts a potential strong performance in coking coal prices in the short term, driven by downstream steel mills increasing their inventory and a tightening supply due to reduced mining activity [3]

Core Viewpoint - In October, coking coal supply tightened, leading to strong prices, while downstream steel mills increased inventory demand, resulting in robust coking coal prices. However, as steel mills face losses, the likelihood of further price increases for coking coal in November is diminished, with potential downward pressure on prices after mid-November [1][6]. Group 1: Coking Coal and Coking Prices - In October, domestic coking coal prices experienced two rounds of increases, with mainstream market prices rising by 100-110 CNY/ton. The price of Shanxi's first-grade dry coke was set at 1575-1645 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7.33% increase compared to the end of September [1][3]. - The tightening supply of coking coal, driven by production restrictions and increased costs, has provided a strong support for coking coal prices. As of October 27, the price of Shanxi's S<1 main coking coal reached 1550 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton from the low end of September [3][4]. - Coking plants are facing losses, leading to increased maintenance and production cuts, which have slightly tightened supply. As of October 23, the operating rate of major independent coking plants was 75.33%, down 1.71 percentage points from September's peak [3][4]. Group 2: Downstream Steel Demand - The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan remained high at 90.24% as of October 23, indicating strong demand for coking coal. Steel mills actively purchased coking coal due to inventory needs before and after the National Day holiday [4][6]. - Steel mills' coking coal inventory has decreased significantly, with the average available days of inventory dropping to 7.18 days as of October 23, down 0.4 days from early October. This indicates a strong demand for coking coal despite rising costs [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Although coking coal prices are supported by rising costs, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, making it difficult for coking coal prices to continue rising in November. The seasonal demand for coal is expected to increase, but without significant production increases, supply tightening is anticipated [6]. - The overall expectation for November is that coking coal prices will initially remain strong but may weaken later in the month, depending on the timing of maintenance in steel mills and a noticeable decline in iron production [6].