近日，焦炭价格第四轮提涨落地，截至11月19日，河北唐山地区准一级干熄焦市场价已升至1850—1890 元/吨，累计涨价220元/吨。 成本是涨价推手 "2025年下半年焦炭价格进入上行通道。"刘璐璐分析表示，主要原因在于焦煤成本的驱动，其次是焦炭 供需基本面偏紧的支撑。成本方面，反内卷政策、煤矿生产核查行动等影响了煤矿生产放量，焦煤供应 收紧预期支撑焦煤期货盘面持续拉涨，投机需求增加，带动焦煤现货价格持续走强。 截至11月20日，山西吕梁地区主焦煤市场价1655元/吨，较7月初价格累计涨580元/吨，涨幅53.95%，较 1月初价格涨255元/吨，同比涨6.77%。记者获悉，原料端焦煤价格的持续偏强上涨，导致焦炭入炉煤成 本直线上升，推动焦炭价格上行。 卓创资讯煤炭分析师刘璐璐告诉《华夏时报》记者，焦炭价格连续四轮上涨，主要是受到成本端支撑及 下游钢厂补库需求释放双重推动，11月中旬后焦炭价格企稳，月底或有承压下行可能。 呈现"V"形走势 2025年焦炭市场走出典型的"V"形行情。年初延续了自2024年10月下旬开启的跌势，上半年累计下调十 轮，基本上以下滑为主，跌势一直延续到了7月上旬。以上海地区准一级焦 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: After the fourth round of coke price increase, coke enterprise profits have slightly recovered, and daily hot metal production has increased, improving demand. However, downstream inventory is at a reasonable level, and the procurement pace has slowed. Considering the limited profitability of downstream coke and steel enterprises, procurement remains mainly for essential needs. Therefore, coking coal prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke**: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has slightly eased. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, limiting the enthusiasm for increasing production. Environmental protection has also affected coke supply. Currently, coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory. Although the market sentiment has cooled slightly, considering the stable and slightly increasing daily coke consumption due to the resumption of some blast furnaces and the limited short - term supply, coke prices are expected to remain stable in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: The resumption of production in major coal - producing areas is slower than expected, and safety production assessments may further suppress output. Market sentiment has cooled, downstream procurement is cautious, and intermediate trade has become less active. Coke enterprise开工 has declined, and there is strong resistance to high - priced coal. Although coal mines mainly execute previous orders and mostly hold prices, some have made slight adjustments [4]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1380, and the basis is 188, with the spot at a premium to the futures [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 781.1 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 819.3 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 1895.4 million tons, a decrease of 76.2 million tons from last week [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main coking coal position is net long, and the long position is increasing [4]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and limited supply growth; negative factors include slower procurement of raw coal by coke and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: After four rounds of price increases, coke enterprise profit pressure has eased slightly. However, high coking coal prices have increased production costs, and environmental protection has affected supply. Coke enterprises are actively shipping, with smooth sales and low inventory [7]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1680, and the basis is 10.5, with the spot at a premium to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: Steel mill inventory is 650.8 million tons, port inventory is 195.1 million tons, independent coke enterprise inventory is 42.5 million tons, and the total sample inventory is 888.4 million tons, a decrease of 8.1 million tons from last week [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [7]. - **Main Position**: The main coke position is net short, and the short position is increasing [7]. - **Factors Affecting Price**: Positive factors include an increase in hot metal production and a simultaneous increase in blast furnace operating rates; negative factors include squeezed steel mill profit margins and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. **Price** The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on November 14 (17:30), including prices, price changes, and other information for different types of metallurgical coke in various ports [11]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [19]. - **Independent Coke Enterprise Inventory**: Coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. **Other Data** - **Coke Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coke enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

Group 1 - The main futures contract for coking coal experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 1770.0 yuan, with a current price of 1773.5 yuan, reflecting a drop of 1.31% [1] Group 2 - According to Everbright Futures, the short-term coking coal market is expected to experience wide fluctuations due to high raw material prices and reduced production from coking enterprises, leading to low inventory levels [2] - Nanhua Futures predicts a potential strong performance in coking coal prices in the short term, driven by downstream steel mills increasing their inventory and a tightening supply due to reduced mining activity [3]

Core Viewpoint - In October, coking coal supply tightened, leading to strong prices, while downstream steel mills increased inventory demand, resulting in robust coking coal prices. However, as steel mills face losses, the likelihood of further price increases for coking coal in November is diminished, with potential downward pressure on prices after mid-November [1][6]. Group 1: Coking Coal and Coking Prices - In October, domestic coking coal prices experienced two rounds of increases, with mainstream market prices rising by 100-110 CNY/ton. The price of Shanxi's first-grade dry coke was set at 1575-1645 CNY/ton, reflecting a 7.33% increase compared to the end of September [1][3]. - The tightening supply of coking coal, driven by production restrictions and increased costs, has provided a strong support for coking coal prices. As of October 27, the price of Shanxi's S<1 main coking coal reached 1550 CNY/ton, up 150 CNY/ton from the low end of September [3][4]. - Coking plants are facing losses, leading to increased maintenance and production cuts, which have slightly tightened supply. As of October 23, the operating rate of major independent coking plants was 75.33%, down 1.71 percentage points from September's peak [3][4]. Group 2: Downstream Steel Demand - The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan remained high at 90.24% as of October 23, indicating strong demand for coking coal. Steel mills actively purchased coking coal due to inventory needs before and after the National Day holiday [4][6]. - Steel mills' coking coal inventory has decreased significantly, with the average available days of inventory dropping to 7.18 days as of October 23, down 0.4 days from early October. This indicates a strong demand for coking coal despite rising costs [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Although coking coal prices are supported by rising costs, the profitability of steel mills is under pressure, making it difficult for coking coal prices to continue rising in November. The seasonal demand for coal is expected to increase, but without significant production increases, supply tightening is anticipated [6]. - The overall expectation for November is that coking coal prices will initially remain strong but may weaken later in the month, depending on the timing of maintenance in steel mills and a noticeable decline in iron production [6].

Core Viewpoint - In October, domestic coke prices showed a strong upward trend due to tight coking coal supply and increased demand from downstream steel mills for inventory replenishment. However, as steel mills face losses, the likelihood of continued price increases for coke in November is low, with potential downward pressure expected after mid-November [1][8]. Group 1: Price Trends - In October, domestic coke prices experienced two rounds of increases, with mainstream market prices rising by 100-110 CNY per ton, reaching 1575-1645 CNY per ton for Shanxi's first-grade dry coke by October 27, marking a 7.33% increase from the end of September [3][4]. - The primary reason for the increase in coke prices is the rise in raw material coking coal prices and strong downstream demand [4][5]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coking coal supply has tightened, leading to higher prices and increased costs, which support coke prices. During the National Day holiday, some coal mines suspended operations, and post-holiday, production was limited due to environmental checks, resulting in a strong cost support for coke prices [4][8]. - Many coking plants are currently operating below the breakeven point, leading to increased maintenance and production cuts. As of October 23, the operating rate of major independent coking plants was 75.33%, down 1.71 percentage points from September's peak [4][7]. Group 3: Downstream Steel Mill Activity - The operating rate of blast furnaces in Tangshan reached 90.24% as of October 23, the highest level of the year, indicating strong demand for coke. However, due to rising coking coal prices, steel mills are experiencing reduced profits, which may affect their purchasing behavior [7][8]. - Steel mills have low coke inventory levels, with the average available days of coke inventory at 7.18 days, slightly down from early October. This low inventory level has led to active purchasing behavior from steel mills [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The cost support from coking coal is expected to continue, but the overall demand from steel mills may weaken as seasonal demand for steel decreases. The turning point for coke prices will depend on the extent of maintenance and production cuts in steel mills, particularly after mid-November [8].

国庆期间，主流钢厂执行焦炭价格的涨价，于1日进行了价格上调，焦炭第一轮价格上调落地，假期间 上调幅度合计捣固干熄焦55元/吨，捣固湿熄焦50元/吨。 （10月11日）全国焦炭价 格一览表 【市场资讯】 本周统计全国230家独立焦企样本：产能利用率为74.95%减0.05%；焦炭日均产量52.86减0.03，焦炭库 存42.54增3.53，炼焦煤总库存819.32减69.15，焦煤可用天数11.7天减0.98天。 10月9日，大商所焦炭期货仓单2150手，环比上个交易日增加2150手。 分析观点： | | 商品名称 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 地 | | 型 | | | | 焦炭 | | 一级3- | 仟越星 | 980元/ | 出厂价 | 河南省 | 河南仟越星化工科技有限 | | | | 6mm | | 吨 | | | 公司VIP | | 焦炭 | | 二级3- | 仟越星 | 1200元/ | 出厂价 | 河南省 | 河南仟越星化工科技有限 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro factors include stable September LPR in China, potential deposit - rate cuts in Q4, tariff measures by the US, and anti - dumping taxes by South Korea [7]. - In terms of supply and demand, iron - water production is high with high - level fluctuations, and coke inventory is higher than the same period. Independent coking plants are experiencing losses [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - After the holiday, the coke price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to trade the main contract with a view of oscillatory movement, and mainly reduce or clear positions [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Macro**: China's September LPR remains unchanged; more banks may cut deposit rates in Q4; the US will impose tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea has imposed anti - dumping taxes on steel products [7]. - **Overseas**: The US plans tariff hikes, and South Korea imposes anti - dumping taxes on steel from China and Japan [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production is 242.36 million tons, up 1.34 million tons, with high - level fluctuations, and coke inventory is relatively high. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduce positions to avoid risks, market sentiment drops, and the downstream restocking is weaker than expected. After the holiday, the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to mainly reduce or clear positions [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the coke futures contract open interest is 56,700 lots, down 81 lots; the 5 - 1 contract spread is 143.0, down 1.50 points; the registered warehouse receipts are 1,690 lots, up 140 lots; the rebar - coke ratio of the futures main contract is 1.84, up 0.02 points [11][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 25, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1,430 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal is 1,250 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. As of September 26, the coke basis is - 330.0 yuan, down 51.0 points [25]. - **Production**: In August 2025, China's raw coal output is 39,049.7 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; the cumulative output from January to August is 316,517.4 million tons, up 2.8% year - on - year. In July 2025, China's coking coal output is 4,089.38 million tons, up 25 million tons month - on - month [28]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Coking Plants**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants is 75.31%, down 0.04%; the daily coke output is 53.12, down 0.02; the coke inventory is 39.54, down 2.67; the total coking coal inventory is 856.23, up 53.06; the available coking coal days are 12.1 days, up 0.76 days. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 34 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 242.36 million tons, up 1.34 million tons week - on - week and 17.50 million tons year - on - year. As of September 26, the total coke inventory is 890.92 million tons, up 7.07 million tons week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port coke inventory is 496.85, down 18.47; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 661.31, up 16.64; the available coke days are 11.66 days, up 0.24 days [40]. - **Fundamentals**: From January to August, the cumulative coke exports are 495 million tons, down 20.0% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's steel exports are 951.0 million tons, down 32.6 million tons month - on - month and 3.3% month - on - month; the cumulative steel exports from January to August are 7,749.0 million tons. In August 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities drop 0.60% month - on - month. As of the week of September 21, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - sized cities is 161.13 million square meters, up 16.47% week - on - week and 23.41% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities is 51.15 million square meters, up 9.49% week - on - week and 65.15% year - on - year; in second - tier cities, it is 69.51 million square meters, up 11.25% week - on - week and 11.32% year - on - year [46][49][54].

Group 1 - In August, the overall market price of coke increased, with an average price of 1446 yuan/ton, representing a 7.83% increase compared to the same period last month [1] - As of September 1, the main futures contract for coke closed at 1594.5 yuan/ton, with a daily trading volume of 30,287 lots, reflecting a decline of 3.54% [2] - Colombia announced a ban on coal exports to Israel, which is its largest coal supplier, accounting for 60% of Israel's coal imports [3] Group 2 - Some coke enterprises are facing production disruptions due to environmental restrictions, maintaining low inventory levels, while steel mills are beginning to accumulate inventory, leading to weaker demand for coke [4] - Despite acceptable profit margins for steel mills, there is a low willingness to accept price increases for coke due to the anticipated reduction in production [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: Recent enhanced coal mine safety inspections and accident supervision have restricted coking coal production growth. Amid the steel - coking game, downstream coking enterprises have slowed down raw material procurement, and the trading atmosphere of coking coal is average with more online auction failures and price drops. The total sample inventory has decreased. The iron - water output remains high in the short - term, but the sales of downstream finished products have weakened, and environmental protection restrictions on coking plants and steel mills also pressure coking coal demand. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will remain stable [3]. - **焦炭**: As the parade approaches, coking enterprises in Hebei, Shandong, and Henan have implemented production restrictions, but other regions have increased production due to profit recovery, resulting in a tight balance of coke supply. Currently, both supply and demand of coke have weakened in the short - term, but overall supply remains tight as other steel mills are still productive and their raw material inventories are low. It is expected that the short - term coke price will be stable with a slight upward trend [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **每日观点** - **焦煤**: Fundamental factors are positive; the basis is neutral; inventory is positive; the disk is neutral; the main position is negative. The short - term price is expected to remain stable [3]. - **焦炭**: Fundamental factors are positive; the basis is negative; inventory is positive; the disk is negative; the main position is negative. The short - term price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend [7]. **价格** - Mysteel's port metallurgical coke price index on August 28 shows that most prices have decreased, except for some dry - quenched coke prices which have increased [10]. **库存情况** - **港口库存**: Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 million tons, a decrease of 10.2 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons from last week [21]. - **独立焦企库存**: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 million tons, an increase of 2.9 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from last week [26]. - **钢厂库存**: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [30]. **其他数据** - **焦炉产能利用率**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - **吨焦平均盈利**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase of coke in China is supported by tight fundamentals, but the demand for steel is weakening due to seasonal factors, which may slow down the pace of future price increases [1][5][7] Group 1: Coke Price Trends - Since mid-July, domestic coke prices have experienced seven consecutive rounds of increases, with the fundamentals supporting this trend [1] - As of August 21, the average operating load of major independent coke plants in China was 74.65%, slightly down by 0.13 percentage points from the previous week but up by 0.61 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Coke inventory at major coke plants dropped to 27.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.8 million tons or 9.21% from the previous month, marking the second-lowest level of the year [1] Group 2: Steel Demand and Inventory - The demand for steel has weakened significantly since mid-July due to high temperatures and rainy weather, leading to an increase in social inventory of steel products [5] - As of August 21, the social inventory of rebar reached 5.945 million tons, marking the seventh consecutive week of accumulation [5] - The average inventory of rebar in August was 5.63 days, down 0.57 days from the previous month, indicating the lowest level for the year [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the recovery of coke profits and increased production in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, production cuts in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan have kept overall coke supply from increasing significantly [1][3] - The passive decline in steel mills' coke inventory is attributed to increased consumption driven by stable high furnace iron production [3] - The ongoing weak demand for steel and declining profits for steel mills are expected to reduce their acceptance of raw material price increases, leading to a slowdown in the pace of coke price hikes [5][7]