Core Viewpoint - The coking coal spot market has seen an increase in replenishment demand, leading to a strong price rise, with enhanced support from the cost side of coke, and an increase in speculative demand, resulting in prices stabilizing after a decline [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of January 14, the mainstream transaction price for Shanxi premium dry coke is 1500 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1] - There has been a slight recovery in pig iron production due to the resumption of blast furnace operations, leading to an increase in demand for coke [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the increase in demand for coke, the short-term price increase for coking coal is limited, as coking plants maintain stable operations and steel mills have sufficient coke inventory [1] - The current supply-demand situation for coke remains loose, with no substantial changes expected in the near term, indicating that coke prices are likely to remain stable [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese coking industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, leading to price increases for coking coal and coke, as well as calls for production cuts to maintain industry profitability [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - A special market analysis meeting was held by the China Coking Industry Association on September 25, where representatives from major coking enterprises discussed the current macroeconomic environment and industry dynamics [1]. - From September 26, prices for various types of coke will be increased: 50 CNY/ton for wet quenching coke, 55 CNY/ton for dry quenching coke, 80 CNY/ton for top-loading wet quenching coke, and 85 CNY/ton for top-loading dry quenching coke [1]. - The industry is advised to limit production by over 30% and to adopt measures such as reducing or halting shipments to uncooperative clients to protect industry interests [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic coking coal market is dominated by large state-owned enterprises, with Shanxi Coking Coal Group holding over 50% of the national resources [4]. - In 2024, the domestic production of coking coal is projected to be 472 million tons, while imports of coking coal are expected to reach 122 million tons, with Mongolian coal accounting for 46.7% of imports [4]. - The total coking capacity in China is approximately 560 million tons, with independent coking capacity making up about 65% [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal and coke is tight, supporting price increases [5]. - Despite a slight accumulation of coke inventory, the market is expected to see continued upward pressure on prices due to stable iron output and pre-holiday restocking demands [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the coking market may experience 2 to 3 rounds of price increases in the near future, driven by strong cost support and high steel production levels [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For coking coal, market sentiment is somewhat sluggish, and downstream procurement is still cautious. However, after the previous continuous price increases of coke, the profitability of coking enterprises has improved, and the raw - material rigid demand support remains. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will run relatively strong, and it is recommended to operate in the range of 1150 - 1200 for coking coal 2601 [3]. - For coke, currently, the production of coking enterprises is still restricted by the military - parade - related production - restriction policies, and the coke supply is difficult to increase significantly. The in - plant coke inventory is mostly at a low level. The downstream market's rigid demand is still strong, and the procurement enthusiasm for coke is high. It is expected that the coke will run steadily and relatively strongly in the short term [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - The resumption of production of coal mines affected by safety accidents is slower than expected, and there are new shut - down coal mines. Market sentiment is volatile, downstream terminal procurement has slowed down recently, coal mine shipments have weakened overall, new orders are few, high - priced resources have weak transactions, online auction failures have risen rapidly, the proportion of price - cut transactions has increased, and some coal mine prices have continued to be slightly adjusted [4]. 3.1.2 Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1190, with a basis of 27.5, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price [4]. 3.1.3 Inventory Analysis - The total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons compared to last week, including 805.8 tons in steel mills, 255.5 tons in ports, and 829.4 tons in independent coking enterprises [4]. 3.1.4 Market Analysis - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [4]. 3.1.5 Main Position Analysis - The main position in coking coal is net short, with an increase in short positions [4]. 3.1.6 Factors Affecting Price - Bullish factors: rising hot - metal production and difficult supply increase [6]. - Bearish factors: slowdown in raw - coal procurement by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [6]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - After the continuous price increase of coke, the profits of coking enterprises have been repaired, production enthusiasm has increased, and the supply has gradually increased. The downstream rigid demand support is good, coking enterprises' shipments are smooth, and the overall inventory pressure is not large. However, with the approaching military parade, some coking enterprises have received production - restriction notices and started implementation, so the coke supply is still disturbed [7]. 3.2.2 Basis Analysis - The spot market price is 1620, with a basis of - 58, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [7]. 3.2.3 Inventory Analysis - The total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons compared to last week, including 609.8 tons in steel mills, 215.1 tons in ports, and 39.3 tons in independent coking enterprises [7]. 3.2.4 Market Analysis - The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line [7]. 3.2.5 Main Position Analysis - The main position in coke is net short, with a decrease in short positions [7]. 3.2.6 Factors Affecting Price - Bullish factors: rising hot - metal production and simultaneous increase in blast - furnace operating rates [9]. - Bearish factors: squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of restocking demand [9]. 3.3 Price - The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on August 20 (17:30), including prices, price changes of different types of coke in different ports such as Rizhao Port and Tianjin Port [10]. 3.4 Inventory in Different Entities 3.4.1 Port Inventory - Coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons compared to last week; coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons compared to last week [21]. 3.4.2 Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory - Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons compared to last week [26]. 3.4.3 Steel Mill Inventory - Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [30]. 3.5 Other Data - The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [43]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [47].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-24） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：受安全趋严影响，主产区停产煤矿增多，供应增量较少。经过前期煤价陆续回调，近期煤 价表现降价区域趋窄，部分煤矿下调价格之后出货有好转现象，继续降价意愿不强。但考虑终端钢厂盈 利不佳，需求端疲态未改，短期降幅不到位煤种预计仍有下行压力；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差137；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：钢材价格震荡运行，随着终端季节性淡季，焦炭第四轮提降快速 ...