Core Viewpoint - The Chinese coking industry is experiencing a tightening supply-demand situation, leading to price increases for coking coal and coke, as well as calls for production cuts to maintain industry profitability [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - A special market analysis meeting was held by the China Coking Industry Association on September 25, where representatives from major coking enterprises discussed the current macroeconomic environment and industry dynamics [1]. - From September 26, prices for various types of coke will be increased: 50 CNY/ton for wet quenching coke, 55 CNY/ton for dry quenching coke, 80 CNY/ton for top-loading wet quenching coke, and 85 CNY/ton for top-loading dry quenching coke [1]. - The industry is advised to limit production by over 30% and to adopt measures such as reducing or halting shipments to uncooperative clients to protect industry interests [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The domestic coking coal market is dominated by large state-owned enterprises, with Shanxi Coking Coal Group holding over 50% of the national resources [4]. - In 2024, the domestic production of coking coal is projected to be 472 million tons, while imports of coking coal are expected to reach 122 million tons, with Mongolian coal accounting for 46.7% of imports [4]. - The total coking capacity in China is approximately 560 million tons, with independent coking capacity making up about 65% [4]. Group 3: Price Trends and Future Outlook - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal and coke is tight, supporting price increases [5]. - Despite a slight accumulation of coke inventory, the market is expected to see continued upward pressure on prices due to stable iron output and pre-holiday restocking demands [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the coking market may experience 2 to 3 rounds of price increases in the near future, driven by strong cost support and high steel production levels [6].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-8-21） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：前期受安全事故停产的煤矿复产速度不及预期，且又有新增停产煤矿出现，煤矿复产依然 偏慢。市场情绪反复，近期下游终端采购放缓，煤矿整体出货转弱，新签订单较少，高报价资源成交略 显乏力，且近期线上竞拍流拍现象快速上升，成交降价比例增多，部分煤矿价格继续小幅调整；偏多 2、基差：现货市场价1190，基差27.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-6-24） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：受安全趋严影响，主产区停产煤矿增多，供应增量较少。经过前期煤价陆续回调，近期煤 价表现降价区域趋窄，部分煤矿下调价格之后出货有好转现象，继续降价意愿不强。但考虑终端钢厂盈 利不佳，需求端疲态未改，短期降幅不到位煤种预计仍有下行压力；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价940，基差137；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存774万吨，港口库存312万吨，独立焦企库存669.5万吨，总样本库存1775.5万吨，较 上周减少19.3万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：钢材价格震荡运行，随着终端季节性淡季，焦炭第四轮提降快速 ...