煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 日期：2026年3月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：焦煤能源属性进一步发酵，震荡偏强 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 国内供应，本周部分复产安排较晚以及因工作面生产受限的矿点恢复正常，供应端整体稳步增量，本周中国煤炭资源网统计本周样本煤矿原煤产量周环比增加16.61 万吨至1231.92万吨，精煤产量周环比增加3.99万吨至609.56万吨，产能利用率周环比上升1.16%至85.71%。进口方面，节后满都拉通关持续回升，中国煤炭资源网 统计本周（3.9-3.12）口岸共通关4天，日均通关425车，较上周同期日均增加40车。本周市场情绪有所好转，产地与其他口岸报价均有上涨，口岸部分报价小幅上 调，但前期降价不足，目前口岸资源多无性价比，下游采购情绪一般，成交依然较为冷清。 ➢ 2、需求： ➢ 在盘面影响下，下游及中间环节拿货增加，煤矿整体出货顺畅，库存有所降低，部分煤种价格有所上涨，焦企生产成本抬升，但是近期副产品价格大幅上涨，弥补 焦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market is expected to be volatile and bullish as the energy attribute of coking coal further develops [3] - The market trading logic mainly revolves around two aspects: the fermentation of the energy attribute of coking coal due to geopolitical disturbances and the rapid switching of seat funds' rhythm [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes - **Supply**: For coal, FW raw coal was 861.33 (+164.96), and FW clean coal was 443.20 (+93.65). For coke, the daily average output of independent coking plants was 63.9 (-0.4), and that of steel - mill coking enterprises was 47.0 (-0.1) [8] - **Demand**: The iron - water output was 227.59 (-5.69) for both coal and coke [8] - **Inventory**: The MS total inventory of coal decreased by 22.1, with an increase of 14.51 in mine clean coal, 4.93 in mine raw coal, a decrease of 49.4 in independent coking plants, a decrease of 16.8 in steel - mill coking plants, a decrease of 13.8 in ports, and an increase of 24.9 in ports. The MS total inventory of coke increased by 7.6, with an increase of 2.5 in independent coking plants, a decrease of 3.8 in steel - mill coking plants, and an increase of 9.0 in ports [8] - **Profit**: The profit of commercial coal was 441 (-18), and the average profit of coking enterprises was 60 (+12) [8] - **Warehouse Receipt**: The warehouse receipt of Meng 5 in Tangshan was 1175 for coal, and the warehouse receipt of quasi - dry quenched coke in ports was 1700 for coke [8] 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply - Weekly**: The 523 - sample mine production rate, raw coal output, and clean coal output data are presented, showing the production status from 2022 to 2026 [10] - **Supply - Monthly**: The monthly production data of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal from 2019 to 2025 are provided [12] - **Supply - Mongolian Coal Clearance**: The clearance volume data of Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports from 2021 to 2026 are shown, as well as the total clearance volume of the three ports [14][16][17][19] - **Inventory**: - **Pit - mouth**: The raw coal inventory of sample mines increased by 2.7 tons to 177.25 tons, and the clean coal inventory increased by 8 tons to 129.02 tons this week [24] - **Port**: The coking coal port inventory was 271.97 tons this week, a week - on - week increase of 13.56 tons [26] - **Coking Plant**: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in independent coking plants are presented, including regional and capacity - based data [29][31][33] - **Steel Mill**: The inventory and average available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their sample coking plants are shown, including regional data [35] 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply - Capacity Utilization**: - **Coking Plant**: The capacity utilization rates of independent coking enterprises (full - sample and 230 - sample), different capacity levels, and different regions are presented [38] - **Steel Mill**: The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises is shown [43] - **Supply - Output**: - **Coking Plant**: The daily average output data of 230 independent coking plants and full - sample independent coking enterprises from 2019 to 2026 are provided [45] - **Steel Mill**: The daily average output data of 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2026 are presented [47] - **Inventory**: - **Coking Plant**: The inventory data of full - sample and 230 - sample independent coking plants from 2019 to 2026 are shown [48] - **Steel Mill**: The inventory, average available days, and regional inventory data of 247 steel - mill sample coking plants from 2019 to 2026 are presented [49][51][54][56] - **Full - Sample Aggregate**: The total inventory data of coke from 2019 to 2026 are provided [58] - **Demand - Pig Iron**: The supply - demand difference and daily average output data of pig iron from 2019 to 2026 are presented [60] - **Profit**: The disk profit of ton - coke (main - continuous contract) and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises are shown [63] 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: The futures market data of coking coal 2605 and 2609 from February 27, 2026, to March 6, 2026, including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented [66] - **Coke Futures**: The futures market data of coke 2605 and 2609 from February 27, 2026, to March 6, 2026, including closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests, are presented [69] - **Coal and Coke Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread data of coking coal and coke from 2019 to 2026 are shown [73][75] - **Coal and Coke Spot**: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and metallurgical coke are presented [79] - **Coal and Coke Basis**: The basis data of coking coal 2605, 2609 and coke 2605, 2609 are shown [81]