智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，政策通知要求年度原煤产量不得超过公告产能，月度原煤产 量不得超过公告产能的10%。该行此前亦提及"深陷价格下行泥潭已久，市场持续探底无果，情绪亦降 至底部，黎明前的黑暗尤为煎熬。但转折的契机正在裂缝中透出微光，部分产能已陷入亏损，成本支撑 逐步显现，只待政策甘霖便可破土重生"。本次查处超产便是这政策甘霖，是煤价自21年~22年见顶回落 以来，首次针对供应端采取一定措施，使得煤价具备了见底反转的必要条件。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 市场表现：板块垫底，跌幅靠后多以焦煤企业为主 2025年初至6月30日，沪深300指数上涨0.03%，中信煤炭指数下跌10.77%，跑输沪深300指数10.80个百 分点，位居30个行业涨跌幅榜第30位。究其原因，或主因年初至今受火电需求疲软影响，煤价持续下 行，进而导致煤企利润出现明显下降，影响市场对煤炭行业高股息持续性的担忧。 筹码持续出清，主动持仓比例回落至21年起涨前 动力煤：价格具备反转条件，现货/长协倒挂望捋顺 本轮动力煤价格下跌时间已持续近4年，该行认为前期价格底部(618元/吨)就估值水平而言，已处于低位 或底部区域。依据历史经验 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry has experienced a continuous decline in prices and profitability this year, but prices may have bottomed out, leading to potential excess returns for leading companies and undervalued firms in the sector [1] Industry Summary - The coal industry has maintained a loose supply structure throughout the year, resulting in ongoing price declines and a quarterly drop in profitability [1] - Domestic and international cost support suggests that coal prices may have reached their lowest point, with clearer expectations for performance recovery [1] - As market trends shift back, leading companies and those with low valuations in the coal sector are expected to generate excess returns [1]