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兰花科创(600123):煤价跌幅较大拖累业绩,底部已现
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 7.54 CNY, while the current price is 6.55 CNY [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the significant decline in coal prices has adversely affected the company's performance, but it suggests that the bottom has been reached. The recovery in urea prices has led to a sequential increase in profitability [2][11]. - The company has shown growth in coal production capacity, indicating that the most challenging period has passed. The report anticipates a recovery in coal prices due to improved supply and demand dynamics [11]. Financial Summary - The company reported total revenue of 4.05 billion CNY for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 26.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 57 million CNY, down 89.58% year-on-year [11]. - For Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 24 million CNY, reflecting a 94.22% year-on-year decline and a 27.77% sequential decline [11]. - The average coal price for H1 2025 was 486 CNY per ton, down 151 CNY per ton year-on-year, with Q2 prices at 438 CNY per ton, down 203 CNY per ton year-on-year [11]. - The company’s coal production for H1 2025 was 7.57 million tons, up 7.35% year-on-year, while sales were 6.04 million tons, up 4.94% year-on-year [11]. Production and Cost Analysis - The report indicates that the company has one mine under construction with a capacity of 900,000 tons. Additionally, it has acquired coal exploration rights in Shanxi Province, with a resource volume of 21.67 million tons [11]. - The report notes that the cost of coal sales for Q2 2025 was 344 CNY per ton, which is a slight increase compared to the previous quarter [11]. Urea Segment Performance - Urea production for H1 2025 was 405,800 tons, down 15.12% year-on-year, with a unit selling price of 1,590 CNY per ton, down 20.91% year-on-year [11]. - The urea segment reported a gross profit of 36 million CNY for H1 2025, a decrease of 82.34% year-on-year [11]. Market Outlook - The report suggests that the pressure on the coal industry has eased, with coal prices recovering from a low of 609 CNY per ton in June to around 700 CNY per ton [11].