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——大能源行业2026年第9周周报(20260308):地缘冲突影响下油气价格上涨关注天然气中上游资源及煤炭-20260309
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2026-03-09 09:20
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil and gas prices, particularly focusing on the value of upstream natural gas resources due to the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Qatar's production halt, which significantly affects LNG supply and pricing in Asia and Europe [3][10] - The report indicates that domestic natural gas production is expected to grow steadily, supported by rising oil and gas prices driven by geopolitical tensions, which will enhance the role of domestic gas in energy supply [4][25] - The report suggests that coal prices may face short-term pressure due to seasonal demand but are likely to rebound as power plant inventories are consumed and demand improves post-recovery [5][26] Summary by Sections Natural Gas - Geopolitical tensions have led to a significant increase in oil and gas prices, with European TTF prices rising by 64.3%, Asian JKM prices by 46.5%, and Brent crude oil prices by 32.7% since March 2026 [3][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of upstream natural gas resources and suggests focusing on companies involved in coalbed methane extraction and upstream resource projects [4][25] Coal - Domestic coal prices have slightly declined to 743 RMB/ton as of March 6, 2026, due to proactive inventory reduction strategies by power plants during the off-season, despite a year-on-year increase of 62 RMB/ton [5][26] - The report anticipates that the upward pressure on coal prices will emerge as power plant inventories are gradually consumed and demand recovers, particularly after the Two Sessions [26][27] - The report notes that international energy price increases are expected to transmit to domestic coal prices through various channels, including rising shipping costs and enhanced coal-to-gas substitution due to higher natural gas prices [6][43][44]