新华财经北京11月23日电（记者钟奕高畅）近日，一股强冷空气自西向东影响我国。从北到南大部分百姓套 上了羽绒服，寒风之中能源保供大考拉开帷幕。 暖气热不热、用电稳不稳、生产会不会受影响，成为对能源保供一线的"冰与火"之问。 电力保供：高负荷迎峰度冬 "气温每下降1摄氏度，负荷就会增加30万千瓦。"在国网北京电力调度控制中心，调控中心系统运行处董楠紧 盯着跳动的数字。自北京正式供暖以来，电网负荷持续攀升，今冬最大负荷预计将达到2900万千瓦，较历史 峰值增长超8%。 11月3日，荆门市沙洋县，国网湖北荆门供电公司变电运维人员检查新港储能电站关键设备，确保设备安全稳 定运行。新华网发黄林摄 一边是电网高负荷，一边是今冬更加复杂的天气形势。根据预测，近年来我国雨带和覆冰逐年北抬，华北、 东北等地冬季出现大面积输电线路覆冰灾害情况可能性增大。 塞北寒风中，呼和浩特铁路局姑家堡站灯火通明。调车长刘志刚在列车间穿梭，"车流密集时，必须争分夺 秒，完成列车重新编组。"他呼出的白气在零下气温中瞬间凝结。 "得像下棋，提前想好后面三五步。"友谊水库站长王学惠说。精密计划与灵活指挥相结合，确保每一列电煤 列车"快进快出"。 煤炭 ...

央视网消息（新闻联播）：11月20日至22日，中共中央政治局常委、国务院副总理丁薛祥在山东、河北 调研。他强调，要深入学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神，全面贯彻落实习近平总书记重要讲话精神， 巩固拓展经济回升向好势头，实现全年经济社会发展目标，确保"十四五"规划圆满收官，为"十五五"开 局起步打下良好基础。 丁薛祥前往济南二机床集团、费斯托气动公司调研先进制造和智能制造，到浪潮集团、中瓷电子、石药 集团了解新一代信息技术创新、生物制造产业发展情况。他表示，优化提升传统产业、培育壮大新兴产 业和未来产业都是发展新质生产力，都要推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合，促进新旧动能平稳接续转 换。强化以企业为主导的产学研用协同攻关，加大科技成果转化应用力度，提升产业链供应链韧性和水 平。在听取部分企业负责人意见建议时，丁薛祥强调，要积极回应企业关切、解决企业难题，营造市场 化、法治化、国际化一流营商环境。 丁薛祥来到济南遥墙国际机场二期改扩建项目现场，调研重大基础设施建设情况。他指出，要统筹用好 各类政府投资，发挥财政资金对有效投资的撬动作用。加强服务指导，拓宽参与领域，畅通投融资渠 道，促进民间投资高质量发展。协同推进项目 ...

Group 1: Energy Supply Challenges - A strong cold air mass is impacting energy supply across China, raising concerns about heating and electricity stability during winter [1] - The maximum electricity load in Beijing is expected to reach 29 million kilowatts, an increase of over 8% compared to historical peaks [2] - The National Energy Administration is implementing a "one province, one policy" approach to guide key regions in energy supply management [4] Group 2: Coal Supply Management - Coal is identified as a critical component for energy supply stability, with daily coal dispatch maintaining above 12.3 million tons since October [7] - The National Energy Administration emphasizes the importance of monitoring coal and gas supply and ensuring quality and quantity in coal supply [7] - The logistics for coal transportation are being optimized to ensure timely delivery to power plants [5][7] Group 3: Natural Gas Supply Enhancements - The capacity of the largest gas storage facility in central and eastern China has been expanded to 65 million cubic meters per day, sufficient for 30 million households [8] - Key natural gas pipeline projects have been completed, enhancing the distribution network and ensuring adequate supply for winter heating [8][10] - The daily peak capacity of the gas network has increased by 23% compared to last winter, ensuring a robust supply for the heating season [10]

"进入冬季，各单位要严查劳动纪律和标准化作业，确保安全是做好能源保供的关键。"6日产业生产晨 会上，该产业党委委员、副总经理李颂东说。该产业深刻认识到，极端天气下，人员的技能水平和安全 意识直接关系到保供大局。为此，在狠抓设备管理的同时，重点强化对运行、检修人员的标准化操作监 督与考核，尤其针对冬季低温天气下可能出现的操作难点、风险点，如设备启停、事故处理等环节，通 过现场考问、模拟演练等方式，检验和巩固人员对冬季操作要点的掌握情况，确保每一位一线员工都能 熟练掌握应急预案，操作精准、无误，从源头上杜绝因人为操作失误导致的运行风险。 "做好今冬首场降雪降温天气是我们能否做好整个冬季能源保供工作的关键，基础打好了，后续的工作 才能平稳有序的开展。"该产业党委书记徐海军在月度生产例会上做出动员。该产业将继续严阵以待， 密切关注天气变化，持续做好后续低温雨雪天气的应对工作，用实际行动践行保障能源供应的社会责 任，守护千家万户的温暖与光明。（王龙 张竹梅） 近日，气温持续降低，最低温度达到冰点以下，加速进入"速冻"模式。面对首轮低温雨雪考验，中新建 电力集团天富能源发电产业以"寒"为令，闻讯而动，全力确保电能、热能安 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：焦煤 11 月以来持续回调，主因是供应端分歧加大。一方面，国家发改委视频会议强 调能源保供，且钢联数据显示上周 523 家炼焦煤矿产量环比改善。另一方面，自 7 月国家能源 局要求煤矿产能核查以后，煤炭行业反内卷缺乏新增政策利好。焦煤供应端强预期放缓，焦煤 期货在 10 月底涨至震荡区间上沿后，进一步向上突破的驱动不足，开始持续回调。不过，12 月 政治局会议预期和年末煤矿产量收缩预期仍有待兑现，关注主力合约在震荡区间下沿支撑。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Coke**: The short - term fundamentals of coke have improved, but the sustainability is expected to be limited. There are still concerns about demand, and the market's divergence on the previous major upward driver, "cost - side support," has increased. The coke futures are in a volatile correction. As of the week of November 14, the total daily output of coke from independent coking plants and steel mill coking plants decreased by 0.51 tons week - on - week to 109.17 tons, while the daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.66 tons week - on - week to 236.88 tons. The fourth price increase of coke was difficult to implement, and the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,670 yuan/ton, with expected improvement in coking enterprise profits [6][32]. - **Coking Coal**: Since November, coking coal has been in a continuous correction mainly due to increased divergence on the supply side. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized energy supply guarantee, and the output of 523 coking coal mines improved last week. Also, there is a lack of new policy incentives for the coal industry's anti - involution since July. The strong supply - side expectation of coking coal has slowed down. After the coking coal futures reached the upper limit of the oscillation range at the end of October, the driving force for further upward breakthrough was insufficient. However, the expectations of the Politburo meeting in December and the contraction of coal mine output at the end of the year remain to be realized, and attention should be paid to the support of the main contract at the lower limit of the oscillation range [6][32]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - On November 19, the Office of the Command for in - depth Pollution Prevention and Control in Jiangsu Province issued a notice to start a yellow alert for heavy pollution weather in 7 cities including Xuzhou from 10:00 on November 20 [8]. - On November 20, the prices of coking coal in the Tangshan market remained stable, with the price of prime coking coal at 1,645 yuan/ton and fat coal at 1,630 yuan/ton, both ex - factory prices including cash and tax [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - out) | 1,670 yuan/ton | +3.09% | +6.37% | - 1.18% | - 6.70% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - First - Grade Coke (Warehouse - out) | 1,490 yuan/ton | - 2.61% | - 3.87% | - 8.02% | - 11.83% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,330 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 4.32% | +12.71% | - 3.62% | | Jingtang Port Australian Coking Coal | 1,600 yuan/ton | - 0.62% | - 3.61% | +7.38% | - 4.76% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi Coking Coal | 1,830 yuan/ton | 0.00% | +5.17% | +19.61% | +7.65% | [10] Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [13][15][17]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts present the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel mills' coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plants' coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [19][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation conditions [26][28][31]. Market Outlook The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the short - term improvement but limited sustainability of coke fundamentals and the continuous correction of coking coal due to supply - side divergence [32].

中国发展网讯 记者于水报道 近日，在内蒙古自治区政府新闻办举行的专场新闻发布会上，自治区能源 局副局长陈铮在答记者问时介绍，"十四五"以来，内蒙古紧紧围绕"国家重要能源和战略资源基地"战略 定位，在能源保供、绿色转型、产业创新等领域实现突破性进展。煤炭产量、新能源装机、新型储能装 机等多项指标跃居全国第一，有力夯实国家能源安全根基。 五年奋进：能源基地迈入全域焕新之路 "内蒙古全力做好现代能源经济这篇文章，做大做强国家重要能源基地。"陈铮从五个方面详细阐述了发 展成效： 三维布局：内消外送破解消纳难题 在新形势下做好新能源消纳工作，是规划建设新型能源体系、构建新型电力系统的关键环节，也是内蒙 古能源工作的重点。 面对新能源快速发展带来的消纳挑战，陈铮介绍了内蒙古的系统性解决方案。一是外送扩容。在全国率 先开展跨省域特高压绿电交易，已与北京、天津等8个省份建立合作关系。今年前10个月，新能源外送 电量近800亿千瓦时，同比增长超60%，占全国1/3 以上；二是抓绿电本地消纳，打造绿能非电利用"试 验田"。创新推出源网荷储一体化等6类市场化消纳场景，招引绿色高载能产业，试点建设零碳和低碳园 区。今年1至10月，全 ...

【期现】 截至11月19日收盘，焦煤期货继续下跌走势，夜盘震荡偏弱，以收盘价统计，焦煤主力2601合约下跌 19.5（-1.68%）至1139.5，焦煤远月2605合约下跌21.5（-1.75%）至1207.5，1-5价差走强至-68.0。S1.3 G75山西主焦煤（介休）仓单1420元/吨，环比持平，基差+280.5元/吨；S1.3 G75主焦煤（蒙5）沙河驿 仓单1264元/吨（对标），环比-27元/吨，蒙5仓单基差+124.5元/吨。焦煤期货大幅下跌，山西煤焦价格 高位回落，蒙煤现货报价持续回落。 【供给】 截至11月13日，汾渭统计88家样本煤矿产能利用率84.53%，环比+0.54%，原煤产量853.81万吨/周，周 环比+5.42万吨/周，原煤库存142.19万吨，周环比+6.06万吨，精煤产量435.66万吨/周，周环+2.71万吨/ 周，精煤库存87.58万吨，周环比-7.23万吨。 截至11月19日，钢联统计523矿样本煤矿产能利用率86.9%，周环比+0.%，原煤日产193.4万吨/日，周环 比+1.5万吨/日，原煤库存434.5万吨，周环比-0.1万吨，精煤日产75.8万吨/日，周环比+ ...

Core Viewpoint - The coking coal futures market has shifted from strong to weak, with the main contract dropping from 1318 CNY/ton to around 1159 CNY/ton, a decline of over 12%, underperforming steel and iron ore [1] Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Multiple factors have contributed to the decline in coking coal prices, including a shift in supply expectations following a meeting by the National Development and Reform Commission regarding energy supply for the heating season [1] - Weak demand is evident as steel prices decline, leading to reduced profits for steel mills and temporary production cuts, which in turn decreases the demand for coking coal [1][3] - The price increase of thermal coal has slowed down, with some coal mines even reducing prices, putting additional pressure on coking coal prices [1] Group 2: Profitability and Production - Despite the fourth round of coking coal price increases, the profitability of coking enterprises has not improved, with average profits for independent coking plants reported at -34 CNY per ton [2] - The proportion of profitable coking plants has decreased to 32.19%, indicating that most coking enterprises are operating at a loss, leading to reduced production [2] - Daily average coking coal production has declined, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 71.64%, reflecting a decrease in production activity since mid-September [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The long-term outlook for coking coal demand remains weak, with a significant drop in the proportion of profitable steel mills, now at 38.96%, marking a continuous decline over 14 weeks [3] - Limited downstream demand in the steel industry, particularly in construction and manufacturing, suggests that coking coal demand will continue to decrease [3] Group 4: Supply Recovery - Domestic coal supply has started to recover, with the utilization rate of coking coal mines reaching 86.28% and daily average output hitting a new high since October [4] - Import volumes of coal have also seen a recovery, with significant amounts reported at the Ganqimaodu port, indicating a potential increase in supply [4] - The overall supply-demand balance is shifting, with expectations of continued pressure on coking coal prices in the short term due to weak demand and recovering supply [4]

黑色产业链日报 2025/11/19 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相 ...