专家解读煤炭增产保供产能推出节奏及影响 20260107 摘要 2022 年煤炭价格飙升促使国家启动核增产能政策，鼓励企业释放产能 以稳定市场供应，内蒙古和陕西成为核增主力省份，但手续办理需满足 多项要求，部分企业或面临 2025 年底退出保供序列。 榆林市计划退出 1,900 万吨未完成核增手续的煤矿产能，部分转为储备 产能，鄂尔多斯地区影响较小，内蒙古灾害治理区产量逐步退出，但部 分可转为露天煤矿，整体供应影响有限。 国家未来可能加强对超额生产的管控，以维持市场平衡，若煤价持续下 跌，可能出台更严格的管控措施，内蒙古煤炭产量虽逐步减少，但 10 月以来因部分矿井复产而显著增长。 12 月份煤价大幅下跌主要受供应增加和长协政策变化影响，电厂预计 2026 年长协价格低于现货价格而推迟采购，库存充足也导致需求减少， 预计未来价格有回升空间但受春节影响有限。 除榆林外，鄂尔多斯和山西等地也存在类似产能退出情况，但对整体影 响有限，部分优质矿井设计能力可转为储备产能，全国矿井手续不完全 且可能后续退出的合同产能数据尚不明确。 Q&A 核增产能政策是如何产生和实施的？ 核增产能政策始于 2022 年，背景是 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry in Shanxi is increasing production to meet the rising winter demand for electricity, with significant growth in coal output observed in the first three quarters of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Supply - Shanxi's total raw coal output reached 97.524 million tons in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, accounting for approximately 27.3% of the national output during the same period [1]. - The supply bottleneck in the coal sector is expected to persist until the 14th Five-Year Plan, necessitating new high-quality capacity to meet medium to long-term energy coal demand [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The coal market is characterized by high performance, strong cash flow, and substantial dividends, indicating a high level of industry prosperity and long-term barriers to entry [1]. - The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for price rebounds, supported by supply-side policies and seasonal demand increases [2]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The coal sector is seen as having a high dividend safety margin and potential for price increases, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1]. - The dual logic of coal stocks includes cyclical elasticity due to price recovery potential and a stable dividend yield, appealing to investors amid global economic uncertainties [2].