| | | | | | | | ER FARFER | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/15 | | 国贸期货出品 TG国贸期货 | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | | | | | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | | | | | | | | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | | | | | | | | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | | | | | | | | | 董子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | | | | | | | | 薛夏泽 | F03117750 | Z0022680 | | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2605 | HC2605 | 12605 | J2605 | JM2605 | 7000 | | | 1000 | | | (元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The steel market's supply and demand may shift from weak to strong as the "Golden September and Silver October" season approaches. The focus in the next two weeks is to observe the steel's apparent demand, and the futures price valuation is neutral [2]. - The short - term trading style of the double - silicon market changes rapidly, following the black sector. Fundamentally, the industry's profit has recovered, supply is increasing, and demand may be under pressure, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3]. - The coking coal and coke market is oscillating. Although the first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, the downside of the futures market may be limited. There are opportunities for mid - line low - position long - position layout [5]. - Guinea's policy affects the market's expectation of iron ore supply increment. The short - term upward breakthrough of iron ore prices allows early low - position long - positions to take profit. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On September 10, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were presented. The current futures price valuation is neutral, and the basis is briefly favorable for end - users' buying hedging. The market is waiting for the performance of this week's apparent demand [1][2]. - The trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and close the cash - and - carry arbitrage [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - The short - term market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the double - silicon market follows the black sector. The industry's profit has recovered, supply is increasing, and terminal demand may be difficult to improve significantly, with high inventory and de - stocking pressure [3]. - Industrial customers are advised to focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - On September 10, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of coking coal and coke and their changes were shown. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, but the futures market's previous low may have priced in 2 - 3 rounds of cuts. The downside may be limited. Mid - line investors can consider low - position long - position layout based on last week's low [1][5][7]. Iron Ore - Guinea's policy affects the market's expectation of iron ore supply increment. The iron ore price has broken through upward, and early low - position long - positions can take profit. In September, there is support from the demand side due to pre - holiday restocking. The 01 - contract iron ore still has support below [6]. - The trading strategy is to continue the low - position long - position idea [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is influenced by various factors such as international political events, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][4]. - For financial products, the stock index may continue to rise in the short - term, but the policy support effect may weaken later. The bond market may continue to be under pressure [12][13]. - In the energy and chemical sector, the prices of different products are affected by supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, and international policies [14][15][16]. - In the metal market, precious metals may fluctuate due to inflation data and interest - rate expectations, while base metals are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs [20][21][22]. - In the agricultural product market, different products are affected by factors such as production, inventory, and international trade policies [28][29][30]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Varieties - **Crude Oil**: SC night - trading declined slightly. The US unemployment rate may rise in August, inflation has intensified, and the possibility of the Fed's September interest - rate cut has decreased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [2][14]. - **Precious Metals**: Inflation data has put pressure on gold and silver. However, the weakening employment market and long - term driving factors support the prices. They may show a volatile trend under the increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts [3][20]. - **Steel**: The supply - side pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [4][25]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The US - Russia leaders' meeting made progress, and the US may promote a broader peace agreement. The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports [1][5]. - **Domestic News**: The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government is promoting the construction of a commodity trading ecosystem and plans to develop Hong Kong into an international gold trading center [7]. - **Industry News**: Thirteen wealth - management companies have disclosed their semi - annual reports. Most of them are concentrating on public - offering and fixed - income products [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - Different overseas market indices and commodities have different price changes, including increases and decreases in stock indices, commodities, and currencies [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.4.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index has risen, but the policy support may weaken later. A - shares have high investment value in the long - term, with different indices having different characteristics [11][12]. - **Treasury Bond**: The long - end bond price has fallen. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation has decreased, and the bond market may continue to be under pressure [13]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: Similar to the key variety analysis, pay attention to OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: The short - term trend is mainly bullish, with inventory accumulation and a relatively high operating rate [15]. - **Rubber**: The price is mainly supported by the supply side, and the demand side is weak. It may fluctuate and decline [16][17]. - **Polyolefin**: The market is in a stable stage after a rebound, and the terminal demand may pick up in the second half of August [18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the price decline has stopped. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion speed [19]. 3.4.3 Metal - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the key variety analysis, they may show a volatile trend [20]. - **Copper**: The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the balance of supply and demand factors [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price may fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to various influencing factors [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is also growing. The price may have a callback risk and then rise if the inventory is digested [23]. 3.4.4 Black - **Iron Ore**: The demand is supported, but the supply may increase in the second half of the year. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [24]. - **Steel**: Similar to the key variety analysis, the market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is restricted by various factors, and attention should be paid to future supply and iron - water production [26]. 3.4.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The US soybean production is expected to decrease, and the domestic soybean meal is expected to be bullish. The impact of the Canadian rapeseed anti - dumping event has weakened [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is lower than expected, but the market is under short - term pressure [29]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar price is supported by low inventory but may be dragged down by processing sugar [30]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton price has fallen, and the domestic cotton price may be volatile and slightly bullish, but the upside space is limited [31]. 3.4.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate has declined, and the 10 - contract price is at a deep discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the follow - up price cuts of other shipping companies [32].

Core Viewpoint - President Trump criticizes the Federal Reserve for delaying interest rate cuts and suggests he may soon announce a new chairperson for the Fed, narrowing down candidates to four individuals [1][4] Group 1: International News - Trump plans to significantly increase tariffs on Indian goods within 24 hours and will announce tariffs on pharmaceuticals and chips, potentially reaching as high as 250% [1][4] - The U.S. government has issued a restrictive license to Chevron, allowing it to operate in Venezuela and export oil, but prohibits payments to the Maduro administration [2][11] Group 2: Domestic News - The State Council has issued a policy to gradually implement free preschool education, starting from the fall semester of 2025, exempting public kindergarten fees for the final year [5] - The 2025 World Robot Conference will take place in Beijing, showcasing over 100 new products, with significant investment activity in the humanoid robot sector this year [6] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - Oil prices fell by 1.3% amid trade tensions between the U.S. and India, with U.S. crude oil inventories decreasing by 4.2 million barrels as of August 1, 2025 [2][11] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate within a range due to mixed market factors, with stable demand in the power sector and automotive industry, while real estate remains weak [2][18] - The European shipping index saw a slight increase of 0.63%, with shipping rates entering a downward trend as many shipping companies reduce prices [3][27] Group 4: Financial Market Performance - The S&P 500 index fell by 0.49% to 6,299.19, while the FTSE China A50 futures rose by 0.89% to 13,902.00 [7] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased to 1.7025%, with the market maintaining reasonable liquidity despite a decline in U.S. manufacturing PMI [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the market's assessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut probability, highlighting the recent performance of external stock prices and key economic indicators from China [1]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The U.S. Federal Reserve's Daly indicated that the timing for an interest rate cut is approaching due to signs of a weakening job market and a lack of persistent tariff inflation [1]. - China's service import and export total reached 38,872.6 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 8%. Exports were 16,883 billion yuan, up 15%, while imports were 21,989.6 billion yuan, up 3.2%. The service trade deficit decreased by 1,522.1 billion yuan year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks rose, with defense and machinery sectors leading the gains, while retail and oil sectors lagged. The market turnover was 15.2 trillion yuan [2][9]. - The financing balance decreased by 4.753 billion yuan to 1.966274 trillion yuan as of August 1 [2][9]. - The "anti-involution" policy has been driving stock index increases since July, with current policy signals clear, but the fundamentals have yet to be validated [2][10]. Group 3: Commodity Insights - Rubber prices stabilized after a decline, supported by supply-side factors, while demand remains weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][17]. - Glass futures continue to show weakness, with inventory levels decreasing as summer maintenance deepens, indicating a focus on supply-side contraction [3][16]. - The pure soda market is also experiencing a trial stop in price declines, with inventory levels decreasing, suggesting a process of stock digestion [3][16]. Group 4: Industry News - In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%, but a month-on-month decrease of 4% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities emphasizes the importance of regulating low-price disorderly competition in enterprises as a key focus of recent "anti-involution" policies, highlighting the negative impact of excessive competition on prices, as evidenced by the persistent negative Producer Price Index (PPI) since October 2022 [1][23]. Group 1: Current Economic Conditions - China's current economic environment is characterized by a third round of capacity cycle downturn, having declined for approximately four years since the previous peak, with significant industry differentiation due to factors such as the pandemic and trade friction [2][8]. - The industrial capacity utilization rate has been on a downward trend since June 2021, reflecting a weakening in fixed asset investment growth in the manufacturing sector [2][8]. Group 2: Price and Capacity Dynamics - The report indicates that the current supply-side state shows clear differentiation among industries, with black metals and non-metallic minerals experiencing low capacity, output, and price levels, while emerging sectors like electrical machinery and automotive manufacturing still maintain relatively high capacity and output levels despite low price indicators [12][20]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to break the negative cycle of "price for volume" and guide industries back to a normal capacity cycle, with two potential paths: either a slight price increase leading to natural demand decline or significant demand stimulation with substantial price increases [21][23]. Group 3: Recent Price Trends - Recent data shows that low-priced goods below historical median prices have seen significant price increases, particularly in sectors such as black metals (coking coal, steel), new energy (polysilicon, lithium), and chemicals [28][29]. - Specific price changes include coking coal increasing by 36.6% over the past month and polysilicon rising by 23.2%, indicating a recovery in certain sectors [29]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The report outlines recent policy measures aimed at preventing low-cost competition, including the introduction of a price law amendment and the emphasis on market regulation to maintain fair competition and quality standards [25][23]. - The focus on price mechanisms and the establishment of benchmark costs in key industries is expected to support the recovery of prices and stabilize market conditions [23][25].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report covers various industries including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping [1][9][11] - It analyzes market performance, price trends, and influencing factors for different commodities and financial instruments [2][3][9] - Macroeconomic factors such as US tariff policies, central bank actions, and economic data are considered [2][9][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The Chinese foreign exchange market shows resilience despite complex external situations [1] - Gold and silver may continue to be strong due to market risk aversion and long - term drivers [2][14] - Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC production, US inventory data, and trade tensions [3][11] - Steel prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand balance and cost factors [4][20] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Main News - **International News**: Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, including tariff adjustments and market access [5] - **Domestic News**: At the end of Q2, RMB real estate loan balances increased, while personal housing loan balances decreased slightly [6] - **Industry News**: Russia maintains its forecast for grain production and expects significant grain exports [7] 2. Outer - market Daily Returns - Various outer - market indices and commodities showed different price changes on July 22 compared to July 21, including gains in the S&P 500, London gold, and losses in ICE Brent crude [8] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties **Financial** - **Stock Index**: A - shares are considered to have high investment value in the medium - to - long term, with different indices having different characteristics [9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Long - term treasury bond prices are falling, and market funds are relatively stable. External policies and economic data affect the market [10] **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling, affected by OPEC production increases, US inventory changes, and trade tensions [3][11] - **Methanol**: Short - term prices are expected to be bullish due to changes in production load and inventory [12] - **Rubber**: Prices may slowly rise due to supply - side factors, while demand - side support is weak [13] **Metal** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are likely to remain strong, but there are risks of Trump's tariff threats being realized [2][14] - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as processing fees and downstream demand [15] - **Zinc**: Prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to factors like US tariffs and production [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term prices may be strong, but there is no basis for medium - term reversal [17] **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: Prices may be strong in the short term due to demand support and supply - demand imbalances in the medium term [19] - **Steel**: Prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand and cost factors [4][20] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may rise further in the short term but are likely to peak after late August [21] **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, affected by US soybean conditions and domestic supply [22] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices may be supported, and the overall market is expected to be in a volatile pattern [23] **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a weak state, and the peak of the seasonal peak season may be approaching [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The coal industry is undergoing a "counter - involution" process. The National Energy Administration's coal production verification notice has affected the prices of coking coal, coke, thermal coal, and coal stocks [6]. - In the short - term, for coking coal and coke, the price increase is mainly due to emotional and macro - level disturbances, with the order of price influence being policy news > futures - spot behavior > actual fundamentals [8]. - For polysilicon, the expectation of "counter - involution" policies is deepening. Although the supply - demand pattern is weak, the market is trading based on the expectation of policy and capacity restructuring, and the price may continue to reach new highs [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Precious Metals - Gold is expected to oscillate upwards, and silver is expected to break through and rise. Gold's trend strength is 1, and silver's is also 1 [17][18]. - Yesterday, the prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all increased, with daily increases of 0.40%, 0.39%, and 0.99% respectively [16]. 3.1.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, supporting the price. The trend strength is 1. Yesterday, the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased slightly by 0.04% during the day but increased by 0.29% at night. The London Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.31% [20][22]. - **Zinc**: It will have a slight oscillation. The trend strength is 0. The Shanghai Zinc main contract rose 0.09% yesterday, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk rose 0.73% [23][25]. - **Lead**: There are still expected supply - demand contradictions, and the price has support. The trend strength is 0. The Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 0.35% yesterday, while the London Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.17% [26][27]. - **Tin**: The price is weakening. The trend strength is - 1. The SMM 1 tin ingot price decreased by 900 yuan/ton yesterday [30][32]. - **Aluminum**: It will oscillate within a range. Alumina will oscillate upwards, and cast aluminum alloy will follow electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are 0, 1, and 0 respectively [33][35]. - **Nickel**: Macro - level sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity. Stainless steel is dominated by macro - level sentiment at the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity. The trend strengths of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [36][40]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are both expected to oscillate strongly. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented. Yesterday, the coking coal and coke main contracts closed at the daily limit, mainly due to the coal production verification notice [6][60]. - **Thermal Coal**: The daily consumption is recovering, and the price will oscillate and stabilize [64]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of policies is becoming stronger, and the price is difficult to fall. The trend strength is 1. The main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly yesterday [9][44]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is high, and attention should be paid to the risk of daily limit. The trend strength is 2. The price of the main contract of industrial silicon futures has been rising recently [44]. 3.3 Building Materials and Steel - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - level expectations, it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 0. The main contract of iron ore futures rose 1.73% yesterday [47]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Driven by macro - level sentiment, they will oscillate strongly. The trend strengths of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 1. The prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures increased significantly yesterday [51][54]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Driven by the macro - level market, they will oscillate strongly. The trend strengths of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide are both 1 [56][58]. 3.4 Others - **Carbonate Lithium**: The sentiment in the commodity market is positive, and it will oscillate strongly. The trend strength is 1. The prices of the main contracts of carbonate lithium futures have been rising recently [41][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US retail sales have rebounded across various sectors, which may alleviate some concerns about the decline in consumer spending. The confidence of Americans in the economy and their financial situation has recently improved [1]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development emphasizes accelerating the construction of a new real - estate development model and promoting urban renewal [1]. - In the short term, the steel price is expected to continue its oscillatory and slightly upward trend due to factors such as cost increases and policy expectations [2]. - In the medium - to - long - term, A - shares are considered to have high investment value, with different indices having different characteristics and potential returns [3]. - The freight rate of European container shipping lines is in a state of oscillation, and the subsequent upward space may depend on the August freight rates [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Main News - **International News**: The US House of Representatives passed the "Genius Act" for significant legislative reforms in cryptocurrency regulation, which will be submitted to President Trump for signing [6]. - **Domestic News**: Central state - owned enterprises' economic operations were generally stable from January to June, with a value - added of 5.2 trillion yuan. They are expected to shift to innovation - driven growth [7]. - **Industry News**: From 2020 to 2024, the industrialization rate of enterprise invention patents increased from 44.9% to 53.3% [8]. b. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and other indices showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the S&P 500 rose 0.54%, and the European STOXX 50 rose 0.96% [9]. c. Morning Comment on Key Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices and the previous trading - day's stock index rose. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium - to - long - term, with different indices having different characteristics [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's monetary policy supports bond prices, but market risk preferences may increase bond price volatility [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 2.04% at night. US oil demand and inventory data showed certain trends, and OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.13%. The start - up load of domestic methanol plants decreased, inventory increased, and it was expected to be bullish in the short term [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins were in a weak consolidation state. The market is in a consumption off - season, and the price is affected by cost and market sentiment [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded. Both are in the inventory digestion stage, and the subsequent focus is on the inventory digestion process [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver continued to oscillate. Good economic data in the US cooled the expectation of early interest - rate cuts, and the long - term driving force of gold still exists [18]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as processing fees and downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely [20][21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate may be adjusted, demand is growing, and inventory has increased. The price may oscillate [22]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported, and the supply may increase in the second half of the year. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory and slightly upward [23]. - **Steel**: The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant. The short - term steel price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly upward [2][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal has recovered, and the market is in a positive feedback state. The focus is on policy expectations [25]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal was oscillatory and slightly upward at night. Trade agreements and export sales boosted the market, and the domestic supply is abundant [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were strong at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil is strong, and the overall trend is expected to be oscillatory [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **European Container Shipping Lines**: The EC index was oscillatory. The 10 - contract fell 4.28%. The market is still speculating on the peak - season freight rate space, and attention should be paid to the August freight rates [4][29].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal effect of external disturbances is decreasing, and domestic autonomy in the chemical industry is significantly increasing. The supply of the domestic chemical industry is expected to gradually see positive changes, and the implementation of "anti - involution" policies in other sectors may boost the valuation of the petrochemical and chemical industry [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [3][11]. - The global economy is expected to improve in the second half of this year, and attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation for the crude oil market [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity increased slightly, with high uncertainty, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo opened in Beijing. China will promote the digital, intelligent, and green transformation and upgrading of the global industrial chain and supply chain [7]. - **Industry News**: On July 16, the national maximum power load reached a new high, exceeding 15 billion kilowatts [8]. b. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.67%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.57%, the US dollar index fell 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil continuous fell 0.22%, and other commodities also had different changes in prices [9]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index mainly declined. The social services sector led the rise, and the steel sector led the decline. The trading volume was 1.46 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.66%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 4446 billion yuan. The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the "anti - involution" policy may increase the volatility of treasury bond futures prices [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil had a volatile night session. US refined oil demand decreased compared to the same period last year, and the US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. OPEC predicts that the global economy will improve in the second half of the year [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.59% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. Methanol is short - term bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed weak consolidation. The consumption of polyolefins entered a relative off - season, and the cost support weakened. The market focus returned to the supply - demand side, but the supply - demand repair needs time [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined and rebounded slightly at night. The summer maintenance reduced supply, and the glass inventory decreased slightly last week. Soda ash futures mainly declined, and its inventory increased. Both are in the inventory digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the digestion process [4][17]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new natural rubber in domestic production areas was affected by rainfall, and the raw rubber price was supported. The overall output in overseas production areas was smooth, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to increase. The market lacks continuous positive support, and the upward space is limited [18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, gold and silver rose and then fell, continuing to fluctuate. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts cooled down. Although the long - term driving force for gold still exists, it is hesitant to rise. Silver is relatively strong [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The smelting output is under test, and the downstream demand is generally stable. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed higher at night. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory increased. The market sentiment improved, and the price rebounded in the short term, but it may still be in a volatile state [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore has strong resilience. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory continues to decline. The steel export is affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, but the billet export is strong. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong in the short term [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal increased last week, and the market had a positive feedback. The supply pressure still exists, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy and the Politburo meeting in July [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The USDA report was neutral to bearish, and the US soybean crop rating is good. The domestic supply is abundant, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the Malaysian palm oil export increased. With strong demand, the palm oil price is supported, and the overall oils and fats market is expected to fluctuate [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC opened higher and fluctuated. The market is still gambling on the peak - season space of the European line. Attention should be paid to the announcement of the shipping company's August freight rates [30].