专家解读煤炭增产保供产能推出节奏及影响 20260107 摘要 2022 年煤炭价格飙升促使国家启动核增产能政策，鼓励企业释放产能 以稳定市场供应，内蒙古和陕西成为核增主力省份，但手续办理需满足 多项要求，部分企业或面临 2025 年底退出保供序列。 榆林市计划退出 1,900 万吨未完成核增手续的煤矿产能，部分转为储备 产能，鄂尔多斯地区影响较小，内蒙古灾害治理区产量逐步退出，但部 分可转为露天煤矿，整体供应影响有限。 国家未来可能加强对超额生产的管控，以维持市场平衡，若煤价持续下 跌，可能出台更严格的管控措施，内蒙古煤炭产量虽逐步减少，但 10 月以来因部分矿井复产而显著增长。 12 月份煤价大幅下跌主要受供应增加和长协政策变化影响，电厂预计 2026 年长协价格低于现货价格而推迟采购，库存充足也导致需求减少， 预计未来价格有回升空间但受春节影响有限。 除榆林外，鄂尔多斯和山西等地也存在类似产能退出情况，但对整体影 响有限，部分优质矿井设计能力可转为储备产能，全国矿井手续不完全 且可能后续退出的合同产能数据尚不明确。 Q&A 核增产能政策是如何产生和实施的？ 核增产能政策始于 2022 年，背景是 202 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【黑色金属周报】 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2026-01-05 张宝慧 从业资格证号：F0286636 投资咨询证号：Z0010820 董子勖 从业资格证号：F03094002 投资咨询证号：Z0020036 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 薛夏泽 从业资格证号：F03117750 投资咨询证号：Z0022680 目录 | 01 | 02 | | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 焦煤焦炭 | | 商 品 氛 围 整 体 不 错 ， 观 察 黑 色 板 块 能 否 形 成 新 驱 动 | 第 四 轮 提 降 落 地 ， 盘 面 震 荡 运 行 | 02 焦煤焦炭 03 铁矿石 情 绪 走 暖 ， 关 注 钢 材 价 格 表 现 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 螺纹热卷产量及表需 01 PART ONE 钢材 钢材 ...

――宏观经济周报 证券分析师 宏观经济分析报告 5 数据密集披露，等待政策反应 周喜[Table_IndInvest] 022-28451972 zhouxi@bhzq.com 宋亦威[Table_IndInvest] SAC NO：S1150514080001 022-23861608 songyw@bhzq.com 严佩佩 SAC NO：S1150520110001 022-23839070 yanpp@bhzq.com 研究助理 靳沛[Table_IndInvest] 芃 SAC NO：S1150124030005 022-23839160 jinpp@bhzq.com 分析师：周喜 SAC NO：S1150511010017 2025 年 12 月 19 日 就外围环境而言，美国方面，10 月和 11 月非农数据集中披露，前者因政府 雇员大幅减少呈现负增；而后者表面虽有新增，但若真如鲍威尔此前所言 "就业每月高估约 6 万人"，那么实际上也近乎没有增长。令人稍感欣慰的 是私人部门就业相对稳健。从失业率角度看，10 月数据受"政府关门"影 响永久消失，而 11 月数据在劳动参与率走高的情形下出现小幅跳升 ...

废钢铁：随着以旧换新的持续实施，汽车拆解量增加（年增12%）和建筑废钢释放，带动国内废钢资源 进一步丰富，叠加进口废钢政策的放宽，预计2026年废钢铁总供给达到3.2亿吨左右，同比增长 12.28%。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯 钢铁特钢分析师赵泽泽 【导语】2026年来看，钢铁市场供应端继续受到政策方面限制，需求端房地产下滑放缓，制造业等需求 继续增加，整体市场供需矛盾放缓，钢材价格或重心小幅上移。 2025年尾声在即，钢铁市场除了在探究近期的行情变化之外，开始进一步思考冬储、乃至明年钢铁市场 会如何，这既是前瞻性的思考，也是我们做近期交易的前提。 2026年钢铁政策：导向明显 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（2026-2030年）于2025年10月28 日正式发布。规划建议原文关于钢铁行业重点提到了两方面，其一为产业升级与结构优化，其二为绿色 转型方面，十五五规划建议为钢铁行业指明了"减量不是衰退，而是高质量发展"的转型路径，核心围 绕"控产能、优结构、促转型、提质量"展开。绿色化（低碳冶炼、超低排放）、高端化（特钢研发、质 量 ...

| 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤( (家古,A10%. 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 【钢材】区间震荡,等待新驱动 1000 周一期现价格偏弱,不过现货成交略转好。国内政治局会议召开,定调在预期内,暂时没有太多超预期的新亮点，后续还 中央经济工作会议,预计在两周内召开。产业端,周度层面的供需变化偏平稳,上周数据看钢材五材供需更多是供需两弱 压力重新给到炉料;五材中板材去库压力比较突出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿。此 -200 外,后续预计会有下游适当补库的行为,来释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。因此,构成了近期黑色板块行情》 ti – EZDC 60-2702 动不大,价格区间震荡的基础。12月可以预见的是铁水产量或许还有一些下降空间,再之后的冬储补库。按照这个产业银 90+700 20-1700 oo 60-1800 60-17202 LO-17202 逻辑链条来线性外推的话,目前需要等待减产逻辑兑现:之后观察冬储补库驱动的启动。当下比较有效的参与 有安全边际的前提下,通过期现头寸兑现一些利润,可重点关注热卷的机会。 ...

| 焦煤基差(右轴) 大津港:库提价:主焦煤 2000 800 4000 600 3000 400 【钢材】区间震荡,等待新驱动 CAP 2000 周末现货偏弱,现货价格小跌10-20元不等,成交清淡。宏观层面,本周比较重要,将是12月宏观交易的重点博弈周: 降息预期博弈以及国内中央经济工作会议等重要会议:目前看,市场暂时没有做出太多预期交易。产业这端,周度层面的 1000 需结构变化都偏平稳。上周数据看钢材五材供需更多表现为供需两弱。压力或重新给到炉料,五材中板材去库压力比较突 出,对价格上方区间构成压力,以及压制市场参与者的主动持货意愿。此外,后续预计产业端会有一些适当补库的行为, -200 释放部分增量买盘,价格低位存在一些支撑。因此,构成了近期黑色板块行情波动不大,价格区间震荡的基础。12月相对 可以预见的是铁水产量或许还有一些下降空间,再之后的冬储补库,按照这个产业链逻辑备采线性外推的话,目前需要适 00 + 100 20 + 100 70 + 2002 z ++700 60-7707 2024-07 5-02 当等待减产逻辑兑现:之后观察冬储补库驱动的启动。当下比较有效的参与方式是在基差有安全边际 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is currently dragged down by the "weak volume and price" situation, with significant marginal decline. In the short - term, it will face pressure and maintain a weak oscillation. In the long - term, it is expected to enter a repair channel in 2025 [2]. - The upward space of the US dollar index is limited, and it will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term. The release of November non - farm payroll data and the determination of the Fed chair candidate will test its resilience [2]. - The RMB exchange rate will likely show a complex pattern of depreciation trend (appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar) and volatility risks coexisting within the year. In the short - term, it will be robust and strong, but the appreciation speed may slow down, and the two - way fluctuation will be more obvious [4][5]. - The stock index trading atmosphere is sluggish and is expected to continue to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - The mid - term outlook for treasury bonds is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [8]. - The container shipping European line futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. - Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals. Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23][25]. - Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. - Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's November official manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2, and the high - tech manufacturing PMI remained above 50 for 10 consecutive months. The US "Black Friday" sales increased by 4.1% year - on - year, and the AI traffic soared by 600%. The US - Ukraine negotiation was considered "productive" [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0794 on the previous trading day, up 12 points. The RMB against the US dollar central parity rate was 7.0789, down 10 points. The RMB exchange rate is expected to show a complex pattern of appreciation and volatility risks [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The trading atmosphere is sluggish, and it is expected to oscillate in the short - term. In the long - term, the logic of valuation repair driven by liquidity easing remains unchanged [6][7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The mid - term outlook is not pessimistic. Although the market is weak due to rumors, the economic fundamentals suggest that interest rates will remain low for some time, waiting for monetary policy signals [7][8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The futures are expected to maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with geopolitical trends as the key variable [11][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Precious metals prices are expected to continue rising in the long - term, driven by central bank gold purchases and investment demand. In the short - term, low inventory and potential demand release will increase the upward elasticity of prices [14][16]. - **Copper**: Copper prices are expected to continue to break through at the end of the year. The impact of PMI data and US ADP employment changes on market sentiment should be noted [17][20]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the rise of copper and silver. Alumina will run weakly, and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to continue to build a bottom, with short - term strong oscillation due to supply contraction and demand decline [23]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range oscillation, with a downward trend due to weak fundamentals [23][24]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will maintain a high - level oscillation, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [25]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium prices will be in a game range, waiting for a driving force. It is recommended to avoid chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton and seize opportunities to build positions on dips [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon will be in a weak supply - demand situation, with short - term oscillation and long - term value for position building on dips. Polysilicon trading is shifting to the game between warehouse receipts and positions, and position risks should be noted [28][31]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate between 16,900 - 17,300 yuan, with strong support at 16,700 yuan [32]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, with the operating range of rebar at 3,000 - 3,300 yuan and hot - rolled coil at 3,200 - 3,500 yuan. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption [33][35]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with short - term valuation repair. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices [36][37]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure. For coking coal, short - term short positions can be held, and long positions can be considered for the far - month contract after a stable signal. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly participate in the downward market [38][39]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices will continue to oscillate, with a long - term downward trend due to supply - surplus pressure. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [43][45]. - **LPG**: LPG prices are supported by supply - demand conditions and the external market, although the domestic LPG valuation is relatively high [47][48]. - **PTA - PX**: PX - PTA prices may fall back after the departure of speculation funds. It is recommended to consider building long positions on dips, with attention to maintenance plans and blending oil dynamics [49][53]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: MEG prices have a weakened downward drive, and it is recommended to sell call options. The long - term supply - surplus situation remains unchanged [55][57]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to continue to oscillate, with the downside space supported and the upside pressured [58][59]. - **PP**: PP prices are supported by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the PDH device operation status and basis changes [60][63]. - **PE**: PE prices are expected to continue to oscillate after a rebound. Attention should be paid to the spot situation and basis changes [64][65]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are affected by device maintenance. Pure benzene shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern [66][68]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking may rebound after the stabilization of Dar Blend discount [69][70]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices will maintain a weak oscillation in the short - term, with attention to winter storage policies [71][72]. - **Rubber & 20 - number Rubber**: Rubber and 20 - number rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market's sentiment has cooled, and trading volume has weakened. The steel price may gradually decline in the future, and it is necessary to wait for the reduction logic to be realized [2]. - The supply and demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are poor, and the prices are under pressure. The prices will continue to be under pressure due to the excess supply and demand pattern [3][5]. - The expected increase in Mongolian coal imports suppresses the far - month coking coal price. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to be weak in November, with limited decline, and may rise again in mid - December [6][7]. - The fundamentals of iron ore are weak, but the macro - sentiment is strong. The inventory will continue to accumulate, and the operation should be short - selling on rallies [8]. Summary by Category Futures Market - On November 19, for far - month contracts: RB2605 closed at 3116.00 yuan/ton with a rise of 18.00 yuan; HC2605 closed at 3281.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 11.00 yuan; I2605 closed at 755.00 yuan/ton with a rise of 2.50 yuan; J2605 closed at 1795.50 yuan/ton with a fall of 15.00 yuan; JM2605 closed at 1210.50 yuan/ton with a fall of 32.50 yuan [1]. - For near - month contracts: RB2601 closed at 3070.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 15.00 yuan; HC2601 closed at 3277.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 6.00 yuan; I2601 closed at 791.50 yuan/ton with a rise of 6.00 yuan; J2601 closed at 1639.00 yuan/ton with a fall of 27.00 yuan; JM2601 closed at 1139.50 yuan/ton with a fall of 33.00 yuan [1]. - On November 19, the spread between HC and RB was 207.00 yuan/ton with a rise of 11.00 yuan; the ratio of RB to I was 3.88 with a fall of 0.02; the ratio of coking coal to coke was 1.44 with a rise of 0.02; the threaded steel disk profit was - 113.23 yuan/ton with a fall of 13.93 yuan; the coking disk profit was 123.47 yuan/ton with a rise of 15.44 yuan [1]. Steel - The futures price fell slightly on Wednesday, and the spot trading volume declined. The market's initiative to chase up was still weak. Before early December, the risk preference was differentiated. The steel production is expected to gradually decline in the future, and it is necessary to wait for the reduction logic to be realized [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - As the steel price is under pressure and the steel mill's profit shrinks, the direct demand for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese has weakened significantly. The weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The negative feedback pressure is gradually accumulating, and the prices are under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The spot market sentiment of coking coal has weakened, with most auction prices falling. The expected increase in Mongolian coal imports suppresses the far - month coking coal price. In November, the coal price is under downward pressure, and the market is expected to be weak and volatile. It may rise again in mid - December [6][7]. Iron Ore - The short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, and the inventory will continue to accumulate. The iron ore price is under pressure due to the expected reduction of steel mills' production, and the operation should be short - selling on rallies [8]. Investment Strategies - For steel, take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Consider participating in the spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or using option strategies to assist spot sales [9]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, investment clients should short - sell on rallies, and industrial clients can use put - spread options to protect spot positions [9]. - For coking coal and coke, take a short - term approach for single - side trading, wait and see for the medium - and long - term, and consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [7][9]. - For iron ore, hold short positions [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the macro - economic expectations for steel may be in a vacuum, and the focus should be on industrial contradictions. Steel production is expected to gradually decline, with initial suppression of furnace materials and a potential for resonance in the latter half if supported by macro - funds or policies [3]. - The sentiment in the silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has declined, and prices are oscillating. The fundamentals have concerns, with high supply, large inventory - clearing pressure, and weak downstream demand, so prices may be under pressure [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited. If supply remains low, inventory replenishment may start around mid - December, and coal prices may rise again [3]. - For iron ore, short - term supply is strong due to arrival rhythms, but subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - On November 12, the far - month contract closing prices of RB2605, HC2605, etc. and their changes were reported. The trade volume of building materials spot was around 90,000 tons, and the market was generally dull. There is no new driving force in the short - term, and the macro - economic expectations may be in a vacuum. Steel production is expected to decline, and the initial stage will suppress furnace materials [1][2][3]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - Affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are following the adjustment of the black - metal sector. The fundamentals have problems such as high supply and large inventory - clearing pressure, and prices may be under pressure [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the fourth round of coke price increase is in a stalemate. The coking - coal auction has more non - successful bids, but most prices are rising. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1100. On the futures side, the sector is oscillating. The positive factors on the supply side of coking coal are weakening, and the high valuation is hard to maintain. There is downward pressure on coal prices in November, but the decline may be limited [3]. Iron Ore - The short - term supply of iron ore is strong due to arrival rhythms, and subsequent shipments are normal. With the decline of molten iron, port inventories will continue to rise, and the previous price range is hard to maintain [3].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The steel market sentiment trading has temporarily ended, and the focus will return to the industrial supply side [2]. - For steel, the long - term industrial logic is a gradual decline in steel production. In the early stage of production cuts, it may actively suppress furnace materials, and in the later stage, there may be a driving opportunity for the sector to rise in resonance [3]. - For silicon iron and manganese silicon, affected by the external macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight currently, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the performance of the 05 contract near the previous high for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - For iron ore, with the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Futures Market - **Far - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2605 was 3166.00 yuan/ton (-18.00, -0.57%), HC2605 was 3318.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2605 was 776.50 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.58%), J2605 was 1916.50 yuan/ton (-22.00, -1.13%), JM2605 was 1354.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +1.10%) [1]. - **Near - month Contracts Closing Prices on October 31**: RB2601 was 3106.00 yuan/ton (+15.00, +0.48%), HC2601 was 3308.00 yuan/ton (-24.00, -0.72%), I2601 was 800.00 yuan/ton (-4.50, -0.56%), J2601 was 1777.00 yuan/ton (-20.00, -1.11%), JM2601 was 1286.00 yuan/ton (-12.00, -0.92%) [1]. - **Cross - month Spreads on October 31**: RB2601 - 2605 was -60.00 yuan/ton (-13.00), HC2601 - 2605 was -10.00 yuan/ton (+4.00), I2601 - 2605 was 23.50 yuan/ton (-1.00), J2601 - 2605 was -139.50 yuan/ton (+0.50), JM2601 - 2605 was -68.00 yuan/ton (+3.00) [1]. - **Spreads/Ratios/Profits on October 31**: The coil - to - rebar spread was 202.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), the rebar - to - ore ratio was 3.88 (+0.01), the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.38 (-0.01), the rebar disk profit was -160.25 yuan/ton (+8.88), the coking disk profit was 66.62 yuan/ton (-6.84) [1]. Spot Market - **Rebar Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai rebar was 3210.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Tianjin rebar was 3170.00 yuan/ton (-40.00), Guangzhou rebar was 3320.00 yuan/ton (-30.00), Tangshan billet was 2970.00 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the Platts Index was 107.40 (-0.30) [1]. - **Hot - rolled Coil Spot Prices on October 31**: Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3360.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3310.00 yuan/ton (-50.00), the billet - to - product spread was 240.00 yuan/ton (+30.00), and Rizhao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Other Spot Prices on October 31**: Alumina was 733.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), a certain product was 775.00 yuan/ton (-5.00), Ganqimao Du coking coal was 1390.00 yuan/ton (0.00), Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke was 1530.00 yuan/ton (0.00), and Qingdao Port PB was 800.00 yuan/ton (-7.00) [1]. - **Basis on October 31**: HC main contract was 2.00 yuan/ton (+10.00), RB main contract was 104.00 yuan/ton (0.00), I main contract was 44.00 yuan/ton (0.00), J main contract was -96.84 yuan/ton (+9.50), JM main contract was 134.00 yuan/ton (+2.00) [1]. Market Analysis - **Steel**: After the macro - events are realized, the market focus may return to the industry. The static supply - demand is healthy, but market confidence is insufficient. The steel production is expected to decline gradually, which may first suppress furnace materials and then drive the sector to rise [3]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Affected by the macro - environment, market sentiment has declined, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to supply - demand changes [3]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The third round of price increases has been delayed. Although the supply is tight, considering the weakening steel demand, the supply - demand tightness may ease. Pay attention to the 05 contract for long - term low - buying, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging on the 01 contract [3]. - **Iron Ore**: With the weakening of macro - sentiment, the supply is stable. Due to environmental restrictions and potential steel mill maintenance, iron ore port inventories will rise, and it is advisable to try short - selling unilaterally [3].