瑞银发布研报称，中石化第二季度纯利82亿元人民币，同比下跌53%，环比下跌38%。该行预计中石化 第三季度的盈利将略为改善。期内油价较上季稳定，相信原油库存对盈利的负面影响较小。此外，由于 第三季是化学品的传统旺季，化学品业务的利润或会上升。长期而言，该行相信中国的反内卷措施，加 上海外产能退出，将推高炼油的基本面。另外，公司将其全年资本开支指引下调5%。 消息面上，中国石化发布中期业绩，按中国企业会计准则编制的财务数据和指标，集团今年上半年实现 营收1.41万亿元，同比下跌10.6%；归母净利润为214.83亿元，同比下跌39.8%。集团上半年主营业务收 入为13,804亿元，同比降低10.7%，主要归因于石油石化产品价格以及成品油等产品销量下降。 智通财经APP获悉，中石化(00386)午后跌近4%，截至发稿，跌3.34%，报4.34港元，成交额7.98亿港 元。 ...

专题报告 2025-07-16 多晶硅：政策预期扭转情绪 报告要点： "反内卷"的政策指向，以及硅料行业近期对产能退出方案的积极探索，使得多晶硅盘面价格 在强预期拉动下快速反弹。不论基本面仍处于弱势，短期政策的不可证伪是盘面较强的向上驱 动，在上涨过程中易形成较强的正反馈，最终使多晶硅期货价格两度涨停，在此轮"反内卷" 引发的商品反弹中表现最为亮眼。 万林新（联系人） 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 价格反弹后，短期高点更多看资金博弈和市场整体情绪变化。从基本面分析，如果我们预期多 晶硅行业产能退出政策最终能够落地，那么按照行业全成本进行折算，上方空间可以先打开至 4.5 万元/吨。最终能否到达这个高度，则需要多方面共振而定。一是看月底重要会议对"反内 卷"是否有新的表述，以及关于多晶硅行业产能退出进展的消息释出；二是现货提涨能否逐步 落地，进而推动产业链各环节的利润再分配；三是市场情绪会否转变，导致盘面的短期调整。 总体而言，短期盘面价格波动放大，多晶硅 VIX 在历史高位，注意风险控制。近期小作文频繁， 真伪难辨，多空谨慎。 陈张滢 黑色 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, PX, PTA/PR, Ethylene glycol, Asphalt, Propylene [1][2][3] - **Bullish Rebound**: Glass, Caustic soda, Urea [2] - **Narrow - range Increase**: Soda ash [2] - **Bearish Consolidation**: L, PP [1] - **Continued Rebound**: PVC [1] - **Weak Oscillation**: Propylene [2][3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of crude oil is gradually rising, leading to a decline in oil prices. LPG is weak due to the falling oil prices at the cost - end and sufficient propane supply. L and PP are in a bearish consolidation state with cost support weakening and supply - side pressures. PVC has a short - term long and long - term short trend driven by policy expectations. PX is in a tight supply - demand balance but is affected by falling oil prices, presenting a bearish oscillation. PTA and ethylene glycol have an expectedly loose supply - demand situation and are recommended to short at high prices. Glass is expected to rise due to inventory reduction and policy support. Soda ash has a narrow - range increase under high - supply and high - inventory pressure. Caustic soda continues to rebound with supply pressure easing and demand from alumina. Methanol is bearish on rebounds due to device maintenance and MTO demand negative feedback. Urea is short - term strong due to international price increases and export speculation. Asphalt is bearish as the cost - end oil prices fall and supply is sufficient. Propylene is in a weak oscillation with cost support weakening [1][2]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with WTI down 3.86%, Brent down 1.63%, and SC up 1.55% [4][5]. - **Basic Logic**: The oil market shows a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. During the consumption peak season, there is some support below, but the pressure from OPEC's production increase is gradually released, pressuring the oil prices above. In terms of supply, Russia's June seaborne oil product exports decreased by 3.4% to 8.98 million tons, and the number of active US oil rigs decreased to 424. In terms of demand, China's June crude oil imports were 49.888 million tons, and the IEA expects a global oil demand growth of 720,000 barrels per day in 2026. In terms of inventory, the US crude oil inventory increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+'s production expansion cycle, the crude oil supply will be in surplus, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, it is recommended to short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [505 - 525] [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On July 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,182 yuan/ton, up 0.43% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,590 (+0), 4,496 (+0), and 4,640 (+20) yuan/ton respectively [8]. - **Basic Logic**: The upstream oil price is the dominant factor. With OPEC+'s production increase, the supply - side pressure of LPG is rising, and the demand is weak. As of July 11, the PDH device profit was - 384 yuan/ton, the supply decreased slightly, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil decreased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the central price of upstream crude oil is expected to move down, and LPG is over - valued. It is recommended to short with a light position. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4100 - 4200] [10]. L - **Basic Logic**: The domestic polyethylene market returns to fundamentals. Although the oil price is expected to rise, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the supply changes little. The cost support weakens, the device maintenance increases, and the supply pressure eases marginally. There are new device production plans in July - August, with a long - term weak expectation. The agricultural film start - up rate increases month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term oscillation, try to go long on dips. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7200 - 7350] [12]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP main contract price and related indicators show certain changes, such as the main contract closing price, position, and inventory [14]. - **Basic Logic**: The downstream demand is weak, and the new orders of downstream factories have not improved. The cost support weakens as the centers of propylene and crude oil move down. The number of Jineng Chemical's warehouse receipts continues to increase, suppressing the rebound space. The device restart plans increase, and there are new production capacity plans in the third quarter, putting pressure on the long - term supply [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, and take the opportunity to conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC main contract price and related indicators change, with the main contract closing price rising and the warehouse receipts increasing [17]. - **Basic Logic**: The scale of domestic PVC production enterprise maintenance is expected to narrow, and the supply will increase. The downstream demand is stable, and the upstream cost is expected to be stable next week. The market continues to trade "anti - involution", with insufficient upward driving force in fundamentals, increasing warehouse receipts, and rising social inventory. Some devices are under maintenance or starting up, and it is in the off - season of domestic demand. Attention should be paid to the change of anti - dumping tax policies [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term long and long - term short. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4950 - 5100] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On July 11, the PX spot price in East China was 7,120 yuan/ton, and the PX09 contract closed at 6,694 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices reduce their loads, and overseas devices operate at a high load. The PXN spread is 256.7 (+5.3) dollars/ton, and the short - process PX - MX spread is 99.7 (-4.0) dollars/ton. The gasoline cracking spread weakens. The PX weekly output is 69.7 (-1.1) million tons, and the international PX start - up rate is 73.8% (+0.6pct). The import volume in May was 77.3 million tons. The demand is relatively sufficient, and the inventory is decreasing but still at a high level in the past five years [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. PX is recommended to focus on the range of [6710 - 6820] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On July 11, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,715 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,700 yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [21]. - **Basic Logic**: The processing fee is relatively high, and the supply is sufficient. Some devices are under maintenance or shut down. The PTA spot processing fee is 125.9 (-4.9) yuan/ton, the disk processing fee is 315.4 (+15.6) yuan/ton, the weekly device maintenance capacity loss is 35.2 (-2.4) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 80.4% (+1.2pct), and the weekly output is 143.7 (+2.1) million tons. The demand is expected to weaken, the polyester start - up rate is decreasing, and the inventory is decreasing but overall neutral [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. TA is recommended to focus on the range of [4700 - 4770] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On July 11, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,383 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,305 yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread and East China basis increased [24]. - **Basic Logic**: The number of domestic and overseas device maintenance is less than that of restarts, and the expected arrival volume is increasing, with a loose supply expectation. The MEG weekly maintenance loss is 24.1 (-0.4) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 60.4% (+0.6pct), and the weekly output is 36.7 (+0.2) million tons. The arrival volume and import volume are low, but the expected arrival volume increases. The demand is expected to weaken, the polyester start - up rate is decreasing, and the inventory is stable, with the port inventory being low [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. EG is recommended to focus on the range of [4310 - 4370] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: The spot price in the central China market increases, the futures price rises, the basis narrows, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged [27][29]. - **Basic Logic**: At the macro - level, the policy emphasizes the exit of backward production capacity and the technological improvement of coal - fired production lines, which is expected to improve the supply - demand pattern. The in - production capacity fluctuates slightly at a low level, the weekly output increases slightly, the enterprise inventory decreases, and the production profit varies. The fuel price rises, and the spot price increases [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on going long based on the 5 - day moving average. FG is recommended to focus on the range of [1080 - 1110] [29]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda spot price decreases, the futures price rises, the main basis narrows, the warehouse receipts decrease, and the forecast remains unchanged [30][32]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side capacity - reduction policy boosts the industry, but the market sentiment is slightly negative as the policy speculation weakens and the inventory accumulates. The supply is at a high level with a slight decrease due to device maintenance. The capacity utilization rate is 81.32%, the inventory increases, and the downstream support is okay but the terminal consumption is weak [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider shorting on rebounds. SA is recommended to focus on the range of [1220 - 1250] [2]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price generally increases, the futures price center moves up, the basis strengthens, and the warehouse receipts decrease [34]. - **Basic Logic**: The supply - side start - up rate is 80.4%, with a decline of 0.1% month - on - month, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction during the summer maintenance season. The new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and the supply pressure may ease in the short - term. The demand from the main downstream alumina industry increases, but the non - aluminum demand is weak. The cost support weakens, and the liquid - caustic inventory decreases [35]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The price is expected to continue to rebound. SH is recommended to focus on the range of [2500 - 2550] [35]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On July 11, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,381 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,370 yuan/ton. The basis and month - spread change, and the trans - shipment profit increases [36]. - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device maintenance leads to a decline in the start - up load, while the overseas device load recovers. The supply pressure is still large. The methanol weighted profit is 102.1 (-1.2) yuan/ton, the weekly device loss is 34.36 (+7.71) million tons, the weekly start - up rate is 84.75% (-3.42pct), and the weekly output is 190.99 (-7.71) million tons. The MTO demand has a negative feedback, the traditional downstream start - up rate is high, the social inventory accumulates, and the cost support is weak [37]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. MA is recommended to focus on the range of [2375 - 2415] [38]. Urea - **Basic Logic**: The daily urea output is nearly 200,000 tons, the supply pressure is large, the industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural fertilizer demand decreases month - on - month. The cost support exists, the basis is strong, the domestic fundamentals are loose, the international price rises, and there is speculation about urea exports [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long with a light position when the market opens low, and also pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. UR is recommended to focus on the range of [1755 - 1785] [2]. Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end oil price falls, the raw material supply is sufficient, the supply decreases slightly, the inventory accumulates, the fundamentals are neutral, and the demand is affected by the weather, with the previous "north - strong and south - weak" pattern reversed [2]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short with a light position. BU is recommended to focus on the range of [3620 - 3680] [2]. Propylene - **Basic Logic**: The cost - end propane price continues to fall, the cost support weakens, the device restart plans increase, the output is expected to increase, and the downstream and traders replenish stocks at low prices [2][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The short - term decline space is limited, and short on rebounds. Propylene is recommended to focus on the range of [6250 - 6400] [2][3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the soda ash futures market is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the main contract priced at 1190.00 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.10% increase [1] - Weekly production of soda ash in China decreased to 709,000 tons, a 1.09% decline from the previous week, while the capacity utilization rate slightly fell to 81.32%, down 0.89% [2] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory reached 1.8481 million tons, an increase of 38,600 tons or 2.13% from the previous week, with light soda ash at 805,800 tons and heavy soda ash at 1.0423 million tons [2] Group 2 - East China Futures notes that the glass industry is expected to reduce production due to signals from the Central Financial Committee regarding governance, raising concerns about potential capacity exit in the soda ash market [3] - The soda ash profit margin has decreased week-on-week, with ammonia-soda method profits turning negative and the soda-lime method profits at breakeven [3] - Ningzheng Futures observes that the domestic soda ash market remains weak and fluctuating, with high supply and inventory levels, and downstream enterprises showing low purchasing enthusiasm [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It suggests different trading approaches such as cautious bullishness, short - selling, and range - bound trading based on the specific situation of each commodity [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Basic Metals - **Aluminum**: The 2508 contract of electrolytic aluminum closed at 20,580 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous trading day. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production, while the demand from the aluminum product industry weakens. With a favorable macro - environment but potential downward risks in the fundamentals, it is recommended to be cautiously bullish [2]. - **Alumina**: The 2509 contract of alumina closed at 2,985 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the previous trading day. The alumina plants' production is stable, and the demand from electrolytic aluminum plants is also stable. It is expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Zinc**: The 2507 contract of zinc closed at 22,315 yuan/ton, down 1.17% from the previous trading day. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [2]. - **Lead**: The 2507 contract of lead closed at 17,070 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the previous trading day. The supply of lead is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The 09 contract of industrial silicon closed at 7,765 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The futures price is expected to trade in a wide range [2][3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate closed at 62,780 yuan/ton, up 0.16%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak in the near - term. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell at high prices [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The 08 contract of polysilicon closed at 32,700 yuan/ton, down 835 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The 2510 contract of rebar closed at 3,014 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the futures premium has narrowed. It is recommended to exit the single - side position and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 710.5 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral in the short - term, but there is an over - supply situation in the medium - term. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract, and go long on the far - month coil - to - ore ratio [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The 2509 contract of coking coal closed at 813 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply and demand of coking coal are relatively loose, and the futures are over - valued. It is recommended to exit long positions and short - sell the 2509 contract [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean market lacks new drivers. The short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound state, and the domestic soybean meal follows the international cost. The focus is on US soybean production and tariff policies [6]. - **Corn**: The 2509 contract of corn trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is falling. The supply and demand of corn are tightening, and it is expected that the futures price will trade with a bullish bias [6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract of sugar closed at 5,716 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The Brazilian sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high, and the domestic sugar price is expected to trade weakly. It is recommended to short - sell in the futures market, sell call options, and lock in the price for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fluctuated, and the domestic cotton futures price is bullish. The sown area of US cotton has decreased, while the domestic sown area is higher than expected. It is recommended to buy at low prices and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is weak. The supply is decreasing marginally but still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is increasing. The short - term market is in a weak seasonal stage, and it is necessary to pay attention to production and biodiesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract of eggs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is low. The futures price is expected to trade in a range [7]. - **Hogs**: The 2509 contract of hogs trades in a narrow range, and the spot price is rising. The short - term price is expected to be bullish, but the medium - term price may decline [7]. - **Apples**: The futures price of apples is affected by the early - maturing varieties. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The LLDPE main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is improving marginally. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [8][9]. - **PVC**: The 09 contract of PVC closed at 4,834 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and sell call options above 4,950 [9]. - **PTA**: The PX price is stable, and the PTA supply is decreasing in the short - term. The polyester demand is mixed. It is recommended to hold long positions in PX, look for positive spread opportunities in PTA in the short - term, and short - sell the processing margin in the long - term [9]. - **Rubber**: The 2509 contract of rubber closed at 14,095 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The raw material price is falling, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term market is range - bound. It is recommended to hold short positions above 14,000 and hold positive spreads in RU - NR [9]. - **Glass**: The fg09 contract of glass closed at 980 yuan/ton, down 3.7%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [9][10]. - **PP**: The PP main contract declined slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is mixed. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10]. - **MEG**: The MEG supply is at a high level, and the demand is mixed. The market is in a balanced state. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is in a range - bound state. The short - term demand is strong, but the supply is expected to increase in the second half of the year. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: The EB main contract declined slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term market is expected to trade weakly, and it is recommended to short - sell far - month contracts at high prices [10][11]. - **Soda Ash**: The 09 contract of soda ash closed at 1,165 yuan/ton, down 2.8%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The market is in a bottom - range trading state. It is recommended to hedge and sell out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 [11].

Core Viewpoint - The solar silicon material industry is facing severe challenges due to excessive competition and declining prices, prompting industry leaders to propose a collaborative solution for orderly capacity exit [1][2]. Group 1: Proposed Solutions - Industry leaders are planning to establish a company managed by professionals to acquire production capacity and facilitate the orderly exit of less competitive firms [1][3]. - The proposed solution involves leading companies providing cash to firms willing to exit the industry while taking over their production capacity [2][3]. Group 2: Current Industry Situation - Silicon material prices have been declining since 2023, currently around 40,000 yuan per ton, which is below the cost line for most companies, leading to losses among top firms [1]. - Many companies are facing high debt levels and significant operational pressure due to the lack of a reasonable capacity exit plan [1][3]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The approach to reduce capacity in the silicon material industry is unprecedented but has been successfully implemented in other sectors like steel and cement, which saw price stabilization after capacity reduction [4]. - The industry is also looking to enhance product standards, such as carbon footprint certification and energy consumption levels, to ensure that quality capacity can achieve better returns [4].