行业方面，三季度以来，供给端在安全监管和超产核查等因素影响下，国内煤炭产量增速逐步放缓。中 信证券表示，展望四季度，上述约束供给释放的因素依然维持。需求端，短期水电持续发力或影响火电 耗煤增速，10月—11月煤炭供给偏宽松，但后续进入冬季旺季，12月份供给或再度出现缺口，考虑结构 性的错配，预计四季度行业整体供需或基本平衡。 该机构预计，煤炭板块三季度业绩随煤价回暖而环比提升，而四季度在旺季月份加持下，煤价整体或进 一步上涨；若供给收缩政策执行力度强化，煤价还有望超预期。在政策、煤价、业绩预期均有改善的背 景下，板块四季度反弹的概率在增加。一方面建议关注动力煤红利龙头，另一方面也可关注低估值且业 绩弹性好的公司。 煤炭板块10日盘中发力走高，截至发稿，宝泰隆、大有能源涨停，陕西黑猫涨超6%，晋控煤业涨逾 5%。 ...

该机构预计，煤炭板块三季度业绩随煤价回暖而环比提升，而四季度在旺季月份加持下，煤价整体或进 一步上涨；若供给收缩政策执行力度强化，煤价还有望超预期。在政策、煤价、业绩预期均有改善的背 景下，板块四季度反弹的概率在增加。一方面建议关注动力煤红利龙头，另一方面也可关注低估值且业 绩弹性好的公司。 三季度以来，供给端在安全监管和超产核查等因素影响下，国内煤炭产量增速逐步放缓。中信证券表 示，展望四季度，上述约束供给释放的因素依然维持。需求端，短期水电持续发力或影响火电耗煤增 速，10月—11月煤炭供给偏宽松，但后续进入冬季旺季，12月份供给或再度出现缺口，考虑结构性的错 配，预计四季度行业整体供需或基本平衡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a slight price decline in thermal coal, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing price at 690 RMB/ton as of August 29, marking a decrease of 14 RMB/ton or 1.99% from the previous period. This is the first time the price has fallen below 700 RMB after a rebound above that level. The upcoming demand for non-electric coal during the "golden September and silver October" period is expected to be a highlight for the market [1][2]. Group 1: Thermal Coal Market - As of August 29, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 690 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton or 1.99% from the previous week, marking a return below 700 RMB after a recent rebound [1][2]. - The current market is transitioning from summer to autumn, with a decrease in daily consumption by power plants, but the demand for non-electric coal is anticipated to rise in the coming months [1][2]. - Key supportive factors for a potential rebound in coal prices include low operating rates at coal mines, with a reported operating rate of 79.9% for 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, down 1.8 percentage points [1][2]. Group 2: Coking Coal Market - As of August 29, the price of coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July. Coking coal futures have seen a significant increase from 719 RMB in early June to 1151 RMB, a cumulative rise of 60.1% [1][2]. - The coking coal market is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, with supply tightening due to regulatory measures on overproduction [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Logic - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with expectations for thermal coal prices to recover to long-term contract prices around 700 RMB. The forecast for thermal coal prices to reach 750 RMB by 2025 is based on the profitability balance for coal and power companies [2]. - The target prices for coking coal are derived from the price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal, with current ratios indicating target prices of 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB for coking coal corresponding to various target prices for thermal coal [2]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is viewed as having dual attributes of cyclical and dividend potential, with current low holdings indicating an opportune time for investment. Four main lines of stock selection are recommended: - Cycle logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 - Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The long-term price inversion of annual coal contracts has been resolved, boosting market confidence as the Qinhuangdao port's 5500 kcal thermal coal spot price rose to 667 RMB/ton on August 4, 2025, exceeding the annual contract price for the same grade coal [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price inversion lasted from February 28, 2025, to August 4, 2025, leading to a decline in contract fulfillment rates during this period [3]. - The combination of peak summer demand and anti-involution policies has accelerated the rise in market coal prices, restoring market confidence [3]. Group 2: Price Expectations - The bottom for coal prices has been established, with expectations for price increases potentially exceeding market forecasts [3]. - The rise in coal prices began with thermal coal, but the increase in coking coal has outpaced expectations, indicating a stronger market than anticipated [3]. Group 3: Stock Market Implications - Coal stocks are responding positively to favorable market conditions, with significant upward potential remaining [3]. - The market is increasingly focused on policy implementation and supply-demand dynamics, with several short-term supply constraints expected to benefit coal prices [3]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Huayang Co., Jinkong Coal, Shanmei International, Lu'an Environmental Energy, Shanxi Coal, Pingmei Shares, and Huaibei Mining, which are considered elastic stocks [4]. - Leading coal enterprises such as Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy, and China Shenhua are still viewed as having high allocation value [4].

Core Viewpoint - The research report from CICC suggests that coal prices are likely to rebound in the second half of the year due to rational supply release and marginal demand improvement, which will aid in the recovery of industry profitability [1] Industry Summary - The coal supply is expected to be released more rationally in the second half of the year, which, combined with demand improvements, may lead to an overall rebound in coal prices [1] - Long-term sustainability of industry profitability is considered crucial, with expectations that the long-term coal price center will rise alongside marginal cost increases [1] - Companies with superior resource endowments and lower costs are anticipated to navigate through the economic cycle successfully [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is the early stage of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with short-term supply-demand balance and long-term gaps still present [11][12] - Coal prices have established a bottom and are trending towards a new platform, with high profitability, cash flow, return on equity (ROE) of 10-20%, and dividend yields over 5% for quality coal companies [11][12] - The coal sector is relatively undervalued, with overall valuation expected to improve, supported by high premiums in the primary mining rights market and a price-to-book (PB) ratio around 1 for most companies [11][12] - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with quality coal companies exhibiting high barriers to entry, cash flow, dividends, and yield characteristics [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Tracking - As of July 12, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 624 CNY/ton, an increase of 8 CNY/ton week-on-week [28] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1310 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton week-on-week [30] Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 93.7%, down 0.3 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is 85.52%, up 1.7 percentage points [11][46] - Daily coal consumption in coastal provinces increased by 6.10 thousand tons/day (+2.92%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a decrease of 9.50 thousand tons/day (-2.61%) [11][47] Coal Inventory Situation - As of July 10, coal inventory in coastal provinces decreased by 785 thousand tons (-2.18%) week-on-week, while inland provinces saw a slight decrease of 0.70 thousand tons (-0.01%) [11][47] Key Companies to Watch - Focus on stable and robust performers such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy [12] - Attention to companies with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining, China Power Investment, and Guanghui Energy [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining sector is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector stocks [11][12] - The coal price has stabilized and is expected to continue its upward trend due to safety inspections in production areas, ongoing inventory depletion at ports, and the initiation of peak season demand [11][12] - The valuation of the coal sector remains low, and the continuous improvement in fundamentals and price expectations has not yet been fully reflected, highlighting the sector's investment value [11][12] Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of June 28, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 614 CNY/ton, up 4 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][29] - The international thermal coal offshore price for Newcastle NEWC5500 is 65.3 USD/ton, down 1.3 USD/ton week-on-week [11][29] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port remains stable at 1250 CNY/ton [11][31] Supply and Demand Analysis - The capacity utilization rate for sample thermal coal mines is 92.9%, down 1.6 percentage points week-on-week, while the coking coal mine utilization rate is 82.48%, down 2.0 percentage points [11][48] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has increased by 14.5 thousand tons/day (+4.13%), while consumption in coastal provinces has decreased by 1.6 thousand tons/day (-0.84%) [11][49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal Mining and China Power Investment [12][13] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, high cash flow, and high dividend yields, making it an attractive investment opportunity [12][13]