Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the net profit of tracked coal-listed companies is expected to increase by approximately 22% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, despite a year-on-year decline of about 29% in the first three quarters [1] Group 1: Performance Analysis - The performance of thermal coal and anthracite companies has shown significant improvement, while coking coal companies continue to experience a downward trend [1] - The early release of winter storage demand has led to better-than-expected coal prices, with a projected quarter-on-quarter increase of over 15% in Q4 [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The coal sector is witnessing improvements in policies, coal prices, and earnings expectations, suggesting that the Q4 market performance may have sustainability [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from improved coal quality at the TSE mining area, a reversal in coal prices, and significant growth potential [1] - The company has established a solid foundation as a resource value operator in Indonesia, with plans to optimize capital efficiency and maximize shareholder returns through innovative strategies [2] - The domestic coal price is anticipated to recover in the second half of the year due to supply constraints and low inventory levels, with expectations of price increases towards the end of the year [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has five major mining areas in South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and aims to enhance its capital efficiency through strategic partnerships and innovative development paths [2] - The TSE coal mine is expected to have a higher calorific value compared to existing mines, with estimated coal reserves of 378.79 million tons [9] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 160 million RMB, 690 million RMB, and 1.19 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 44.8X, 10.7X, and 6.2X [4][10] - Revenue is expected to decline in 2024 but recover significantly in 2026 and 2027, with a projected growth rate of 39.8% and 66.7% respectively [10] Market Conditions - Domestic coal production is expected to continue facing constraints due to safety inspections, leading to a likely decrease in production in the second half of the year [3] - The coal price is projected to rise due to low inventory levels and seasonal demand increases, with potential for significant price elasticity if demand exceeds expectations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] Report's Core View - Currently at the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with the resonance of fundamentals and policies, it is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels. The coal price is expected to rise in the new round, and the supply limitation and low inventory may amplify the price volatility elasticity. The coal sector investment is both offensive and defensive with high cost - effectiveness, and it is recommended to focus on the current allocation opportunities [5][13] Summary by Directory I. This Week's Core View and Key Concerns - **Core View**: The current situation is at the start of a new upward cycle in the coal economy. The supply capacity utilization of sample power and coking coal mines decreased this week. The daily coal consumption in inland 17 provinces and coastal 8 provinces declined. The coal price in Qinhuangdao Port and the main coking coal price in Jingtang Port remained flat. The coal price is expected to rise with the approaching peak season, and the coal assets are cost - effective. It is recommended to allocate at low levels [5][13] - **Key Concerns**: From January to September 2025, the national coal mining and washing industry's revenue and profit decreased year - on - year. The national power generation installed capacity increased, but the average utilization hours decreased. The international market coal price rose to the highest level in the past two months [15] II. This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector fell 0.43% this week, underperforming the market. The CSI 300 fell 0.43%. The top three sectors in terms of gain were basic chemicals, power equipment and new energy, and consumer services [16] - The power coal sector fell 0.27%, the coking coal sector fell 2.23%, and the coke sector rose 2.77% [18] - The top three gainers in the coal mining and washing sector were Huaihe Energy (7.49%), Dianchi Energy (3.23%), and Shanghai Energy (2.60%) [21] III. Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of October 31, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 693 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 685 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term agreement price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 676 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month [25] - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of November 1, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) produced in Shanxi was 768 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The pit - mouth price of Shaanxi Yulin thermal lump coal (Q6000) was 710 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. The FOB spot price of Newcastle NEWC5500 kcal thermal coal was 75.5 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton week - on - week [31] - **Coking Coal Price**: As of October 31, the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The FOB price of Australian Peak Downs hard coking coal at the Chinese port of destination was 211.7 dollars/ton, up 3.9 dollars/ton week - on - week [33] - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: As of October 31, the wagon - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite was 990 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The wagon - loading price of pulverized coal in Changzhi Lucheng and Yangquan increased week - on - week [42] IV. Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of October 31, the capacity utilization of sample power coal mines was 90.5%, down 0.5 percentage points week - on - week. The capacity utilization of sample coking coal mines was 84.78%, down 0.3 percentage points week - on - week [49] - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of October 31, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal thermal coal was - 59.6 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price difference for 4000 - kcal thermal coal was - 55.1 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton week - on - week [45] - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces' coal inventory increased by 142.60 million tons week - on - week, daily consumption decreased by 19.20 million tons/day week - on - week, and available days increased by 2 days. Coastal 8 provinces' coal inventory increased by 10.80 million tons week - on - week, daily consumption decreased by 0.20 million tons/day week - on - week, and available days increased by 0.1 days [50] - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of October 31, the Myspic comprehensive steel price index was 122.4 points, up 1.32 points week - on - week. The national blast furnace operating rate was 81.8%, down 2.96 percentage points week - on - week [68][69] - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of October 31, the urea prices in Hubei and Guangdong increased, while that in Northeast China decreased. The national methanol, ethylene glycol, and acetic acid price indices decreased, while the synthetic ammonia and cement price indices increased. The cement clinker capacity utilization rate was 62.5%, down 1.3 percentage points week - on - week. The chemical weekly coal consumption increased by 11.71 million tons/day week - on - week [71][73] V. Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of October 31, the coal inventory in Qinhuangdao Port was 575 million tons, up 25 million tons week - on - week. The thermal coal inventory in 55 ports was 6318.8 million tons, up 132 million tons week - on - week. The thermal coal inventory of 462 sample mines was 295.1 million tons, up 1.6 million tons week - on - week [89] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of October 31, the coking coal inventory in production areas was 164.5 million tons, down 25 million tons week - on - week. The coking coal inventory in six ports was 290.2 million tons, up 14.5 million tons week - on - week [90] - **Coke Inventory**: As of October 31, the total coke inventory of coking plants was 37.5 million tons, up 0.0 million tons week - on - week. The total coke inventory of four ports was 211.1 million tons, up 11.0 million tons week - on - week. The total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills was 629.05 million tons, down 4.11 million tons week - on - week [92] VI. Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of October 31, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1966 points, down 25 points week - on - week. The average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway this week was 130.1 million tons, up 29.91 million tons week - on - week [106] - **Cargo - to - Ship Ratio in Four Bohai Rim Ports**: As of October 31, the inventory of four Bohai Rim ports was 1397.9 million tons, down 33 million tons week - on - week. The number of anchored ships was 79, down 21 week - on - week. The cargo - to - ship ratio was 17.7, up 3.39 week - on - week [104] VII. Weather Situation - As of October 31, the Three Gorges出库流量 was 15500 cubic meters per second, down 1.27% week - on - week. In the next 10 days, there will be more precipitation in many areas, and some areas will have more precipitation than usual. There will be more rainy days in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places in the next 10 days, and the long - term precipitation and temperature outlook is also provided [111] VIII. Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table shows the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratios of key listed companies from 2024A to 2027E [112] - **This Week's Key Announcements**: Gansu Energy plans to set up a new coal - washing subsidiary. Guanghui Energy's controlling shareholder pledged shares. China National Coal Group participated in a central enterprise strategic emerging fund. Suzhou Energy's project unit was put into operation. Huaihe Energy's asset acquisition transaction will be reviewed [113][114][115][116][117]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry in Shanxi is increasing production to meet the rising winter demand for electricity, with significant growth in coal output observed in the first three quarters of the year [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Supply - Shanxi's total raw coal output reached 97.524 million tons in the first three quarters of this year, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, accounting for approximately 27.3% of the national output during the same period [1]. - The supply bottleneck in the coal sector is expected to persist until the 14th Five-Year Plan, necessitating new high-quality capacity to meet medium to long-term energy coal demand [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The coal market is characterized by high performance, strong cash flow, and substantial dividends, indicating a high level of industry prosperity and long-term barriers to entry [1]. - The current low prices of thermal and coking coal provide room for price rebounds, supported by supply-side policies and seasonal demand increases [2]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - The coal sector is seen as having a high dividend safety margin and potential for price increases, making it an attractive investment opportunity [1]. - The dual logic of coal stocks includes cyclical elasticity due to price recovery potential and a stable dividend yield, appealing to investors amid global economic uncertainties [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The current phase is seen as the beginning of a new upward cycle in the coal economy, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to accumulate coal sector investments [11][12] - The coal market is expected to maintain a slightly tight supply-demand balance, with coal prices trending upwards, potentially exceeding early-year highs [11][12] - The underlying investment logic of coal capacity shortages remains unchanged, with a confirmed price bottom and an upward trend in the price center [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Price Trends - As of October 18, the market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) is 740 CNY/ton, up 34 CNY/ton week-on-week [11][30] - The price for coking coal at Jing Tang port is 1690 CNY/ton, an increase of 30 CNY/ton [11][32] - International thermal coal prices have also seen increases, with Newcastle thermal coal at 72.8 USD/ton, up 1.8 USD/ton [11][30] 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The capacity utilization rate for thermal coal mines is 91.7%, down 0.1 percentage points week-on-week, while coking coal mine utilization increased to 87.33%, up 5.4 percentage points [11][47] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces decreased by 31.20 thousand tons/day, while coastal provinces saw an increase of 1.40 thousand tons/day [11][48] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on stable and high-performing companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, as well as those with significant upside potential like Yanzhou Coal and Electric Power Energy [12] - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a favorable long-term outlook [12] 4. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.27%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 2.22% [14][17] - The thermal coal segment rose by 6.55%, indicating strong market interest [17]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector continues to experience an upward trend, driven by supply-side tightening and improved demand dynamics, with expectations for rising coal prices in the near future [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Coal stocks have shown significant gains, with China Coal Energy (01898) up 6.39% to HKD 10.99, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) up 3.28% to HKD 11.34, China Shenhua Energy (01088) up 2.36% to HKD 40.76, and Yancoal Australia (03668) up 1.27% to HKD 28.74 [2]. Group 2: Industry Analysis - According to a report from Founder Securities, the introduction of production exceeding capacity documents has notably influenced coal price sentiment, indicating a shift from a surplus to a more balanced supply-demand scenario, with expectations for coal prices to continue rising [2]. - Guosen Securities highlights that while coal prices have been declining and profits for coal companies have been under pressure in early 2024, a rebound in coal prices is anticipated in the second half of 2025, which could improve profitability for coal enterprises [2].

国信证券发布研报称，在2024年中至今，前期由于煤价下行、煤企利润不佳导致，但是2025年下半年煤 价反弹后，煤企利润有望改善且四季度煤价具备向上弹性，叠加本轮市场转好后，煤炭板块表现明显弱 于其他板块，且底部明确，看好板块四季度反弹。 方正证券发布研报称，产地查超产文件出台后，对煤价情绪影响较为明显，当前煤炭行业的供给侧收紧 成为投资主题，煤炭供大于求的局面有望逐步扭转，煤价也有望继续提升，2025年夏天高温带来的日耗 维持高位，煤炭需求起量，煤炭供需格局有所好转，随着今后"反内卷"政策的逐步落实，未来也可展望 对于进口煤的限制。 智通财经APP获悉，煤炭股延续近期上涨，截至发稿，中煤能源(01898)涨6.39%，报10.99港元；兖矿能 源(01171)涨3.28%，报11.34港元；中国神华(01088)涨2.36%，报40.76港元；兖煤澳大利亚(03668)涨 1.27%，报28.74港元。 ...

Group 1 - The coal sector experienced a significant rise on October 10, with companies such as Baotailong and Dayou Energy hitting the daily limit, and Shaanxi Heimao increasing by over 6% [1] - Since the third quarter, domestic coal production growth has gradually slowed due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with expectations that these supply constraints will persist into the fourth quarter [1] - Short-term hydropower generation may impact the coal consumption growth of thermal power, leading to a relatively loose coal supply from October to November, but a supply gap is anticipated in December as the winter peak season approaches [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities forecasts that the coal sector's performance in the third quarter will improve sequentially due to a rebound in coal prices, with further price increases expected in the fourth quarter during peak months [1] - If the enforcement of supply reduction policies strengthens, coal prices may exceed expectations, indicating a potential for sector rebound in the fourth quarter [1] - The report suggests focusing on leading companies benefiting from thermal coal and also considering undervalued companies with good earnings elasticity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since the third quarter, domestic coal production growth has gradually slowed due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with expectations for continued supply constraints into the fourth quarter [1] Supply Side - Factors affecting supply, such as safety regulations and overproduction checks, are expected to persist, leading to a balanced supply-demand situation in the coal industry for the fourth quarter [1] - In December, a supply gap may re-emerge as the winter peak season approaches, despite a relatively loose supply in October and November [1] Demand Side - Short-term hydropower generation may impact the growth rate of coal consumption for thermal power, contributing to a balanced supply-demand scenario overall [1] Price and Performance Outlook - The coal sector's performance in the third quarter improved due to a rebound in coal prices, with expectations for further price increases in the fourth quarter during peak months [1] - If supply contraction policies are enforced more rigorously, coal prices may exceed expectations [1] - The backdrop of improved policies, coal prices, and performance expectations increases the likelihood of a rebound in the coal sector in the fourth quarter [1] Investment Recommendations - Companies are advised to focus on leading players benefiting from thermal coal dividends, as well as undervalued companies with good performance elasticity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is experiencing a slight price decline in thermal coal, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal closing price at 690 RMB/ton as of August 29, marking a decrease of 14 RMB/ton or 1.99% from the previous period. This is the first time the price has fallen below 700 RMB after a rebound above that level. The upcoming demand for non-electric coal during the "golden September and silver October" period is expected to be a highlight for the market [1][2]. Group 1: Thermal Coal Market - As of August 29, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 690 RMB/ton, down 14 RMB/ton or 1.99% from the previous week, marking a return below 700 RMB after a recent rebound [1][2]. - The current market is transitioning from summer to autumn, with a decrease in daily consumption by power plants, but the demand for non-electric coal is anticipated to rise in the coming months [1][2]. - Key supportive factors for a potential rebound in coal prices include low operating rates at coal mines, with a reported operating rate of 79.9% for 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, down 1.8 percentage points [1][2]. Group 2: Coking Coal Market - As of August 29, the price of coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1610 RMB/ton, rebounding from a low of 1230 RMB/ton in early July. Coking coal futures have seen a significant increase from 719 RMB in early June to 1151 RMB, a cumulative rise of 60.1% [1][2]. - The coking coal market is characterized by strong expectations but weak realities, with supply tightening due to regulatory measures on overproduction [1][2]. Group 3: Investment Logic - The investment logic suggests that both thermal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with expectations for thermal coal prices to recover to long-term contract prices around 700 RMB. The forecast for thermal coal prices to reach 750 RMB by 2025 is based on the profitability balance for coal and power companies [2]. - The target prices for coking coal are derived from the price ratio between coking coal and thermal coal, with current ratios indicating target prices of 1608 RMB, 1680 RMB, 1800 RMB, and 2064 RMB for coking coal corresponding to various target prices for thermal coal [2]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector is viewed as having dual attributes of cyclical and dividend potential, with current low holdings indicating an opportune time for investment. Four main lines of stock selection are recommended: - Cycle logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份, 电投能源 - Growth logic: 新集能源, 广汇能源 [3].