煤炭对话产业链：如何看近期供给扰动及后续市场？ 20260108 摘要 部分民营煤企因未按保供政策执行，将煤炭用于市场销售而非保供，导 致产量核减，但因当前煤炭供给充足，对市场整体影响不大。 内蒙古环保政策导致 1 亿吨煤炭减产的传言尚无确凿证据，但内蒙古确 实发布了煤炭保供政策宣贯通知，具体实施情况需进一步观察。 陕西省尤其是榆林地区煤炭供应相对稳定，预计 2026 年产量维持在 6.3 亿吨左右，该地区主要由国家能源集团、陕煤化、延长石油等大型 企业主导。 煤炭价格受市场需求、政府保供政策和极端天气等多种因素影响，政府 通过加速新产能合同审批和明确新增产能用于保供来调控价格。 自 2021 年以来，全国通过核增、新建和技改等途径增加了大量新产能， 主要集中在先进生产能力地区，如俄罗斯核心区、锡林郭勒盟和呼伦贝 尔等地。 2026 年煤炭定价机制结合坑口价和港口定价，基准价为各区域价格合 理区间中间值，浮动价格参考四大产地价格指数，港口定价维持在 675 元/吨。 榆林煤炭产业发展方向是推动煤炭就地转化，主要方式是干煤化工，但 多数项目面临亏损。当地政府鼓励企业投资煤化工项目或缴纳基金。 Q&A 如何看待近 ...

12月23日，全国煤炭产运需衔接大会现场传来重要消息，国铁全煤(国煤)直达动力煤价格指数正式对外 发布，标志着我国煤炭市场价格形成机制进一步完善。 在样本布局上，该指数聚焦晋、陕、蒙西、蒙东四大核心动力煤产区，涵盖七大代表性规格品类，既实 现了对主流市场走势的精准监测，也为未来向更多区域、细分品种拓展预留了充足空间，充分彰显了指 数编制的科学性与前瞻性。 业内人士普遍认为，国铁全煤直达动力煤价格指数的推广应用，将进一步规范煤炭市场价格形成秩序， 提升煤炭市场运行效率，为新型能源体系建设提供有力支撑。 记者了解到，此次发布的价格指数最受行业关注的亮点，在于已正式纳入2026年电煤保供中长期合 同"基准价+浮动价"定价参考体系，其波动变化将直接成为月度定价的重要依据。 这一举措被业内视为理顺煤电价格关系的重要突破：一方面将显著提升电煤中长期合同的科学性与市场 适应性，让定价机制更贴合市场供需实际；另一方面能有效引导煤炭价格在合理区间运行，为保障电力 供应稳定筑牢价格基础，充分体现了有效市场与有为政府的更好结合。 为确保指数的权威性与准确性，全国煤炭交易中心在国铁集团指导下，构建起"交易数据+源头采集+企 业征集" ...

Summary of the Conference Call on 2026 Coal Supply Contracts Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the coal supply contracts for 2026, emphasizing the coal industry and its regulatory environment [1][2][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Strengthened Supply Assurance**: The 2026 coal supply contracts explicitly include "supply assurance," indicating a focus on improving contract fulfillment rates due to poor performance in the past two years, despite a currently relaxed coal market [1][2][9]. 2. **Pricing Mechanism Changes**: The pricing mechanism for coal has shifted to a benchmark plus floating price index, which is expected to create a more stable and fair price expectation, protecting corporate interests. This is a change from the previous year's fixed pricing based on government guidelines [2][9]. 3. **Electricity Demand Growth**: The China Electricity Council predicts a 5% year-on-year increase in total electricity consumption for 2026, which will support stable or slightly increasing coal consumption [4]. 4. **Decline in Coal Consumption in Certain Industries**: The steel and construction materials industries are expected to see a decrease in coal consumption due to ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector and increased recycling rates in the steel industry. Non-electric coal demand is projected to be around 4.9 billion tons [5]. 5. **Market Supply and Demand Balance**: The overall coal market is expected to remain balanced and relatively relaxed in 2026, with a benchmark price for 5,500 kcal thermal coal at approximately 800 RMB per ton, fluctuating by around 100 RMB [6][10]. 6. **Impact of Overproduction Checks**: Overproduction checks are affecting coal supply, with state-owned enterprises showing less overproduction compared to local enterprises. The government aims to maintain a supply surplus to avoid negative impacts on energy security [8][10]. 7. **Resource Depletion Concerns**: Resource depletion is a growing issue, particularly in key coal-producing regions. It is anticipated that around 60 million tons of coal production capacity will be phased out annually during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, totaling approximately 300 million tons [8][10]. 8. **Future Price Stability**: The government is expected to avoid policies that would cause significant fluctuations in coal prices, aiming to keep prices within a reasonable range of around 800 RMB, with a potential increase of about 100 RMB compared to the previous year [11][12]. Other Important Insights - The introduction of a monthly price adjustment mechanism allows for negotiations between supply and demand parties, which could lead to more tailored pricing strategies based on regional market conditions [2][9]. - The anticipated peak in national coal consumption is expected around 2028, after which a long-term fluctuation plateau is predicted [11]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the coal supply contracts and the broader implications for the coal industry in 2026.