1. Report Type and Date - The report is a daily steel review dated November 17, 2025 [1][2] 2. Research Team - The black metal research team includes researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Review 3.1 Futures Market - On November 14, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures 2601 first declined and then rebounded. The RB2601 contract closed at 3053 yuan/ton, up 0.43%; the HC2601 contract closed at 3256 yuan/ton, up 0.06%; the SS2601 contract closed at 12380 yuan/ton, down 0.76% [5] - In terms of position changes, the long - short position changes of various contracts were different. For example, the long position of RB2601 decreased by 1,147 hands, and the short position decreased by 3,601 hands [6] 3.2 Spot Market - On November 14, the prices of some rebar spot markets rose more than they fell, and the prices of individual hot - rolled coil markets declined. The rebar prices in Nanning, Tianjin, and Jinan rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the rebar price in Changchun fell by 10 yuan/ton; the hot - rolled coil price in Nanning fell by 10 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Technical Indicators - The daily KDJ indicator of the rebar 2601 contract continued to rise after a golden cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract also had a golden cross. The daily MACD indicator of the rebar 2601 contract had a golden cross; the green column of the daily MACD of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract narrowed for 3 consecutive trading days and was close to a golden cross [7] 4. Market Outlook - In terms of news, recently, coal supply - guarantee policies have been introduced, and the prices of coke and coking coal futures have declined significantly [8] - Fundamentally, previously, steel mills accelerated production cuts, raw material prices and steel costs declined under pressure, and steel mill profits significantly rebounded. With the concession of coal and coke, the iron ore price has stabilized in recent days, making steel prices relatively resistant to decline. The weekly demand decline of the five major steel products has narrowed, and the production of the five major steel products has continued to decline, leading to a faster reduction in steel social inventory [8][9] - In terms of raw materials, the arrival volume of iron ore at domestic ports in the past 4 weeks decreased by 3.8% month - on - month, but it increased by 11.9% in the previous 4 weeks, and the overall supply of iron ore is still relatively abundant. The coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly declined to the lowest level since late March. Although coking plants and steel mills continue to reduce coke inventory, the coke inventory at ports has increased in the past 6 weeks. Since October 25, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded significantly. The coking coal inventories of 230 independent coking plants and ports have increased by 22.7% and 16.8% respectively compared with the previous lows in August - September [9] - Considering the seasonal weak demand for steel, but with the accumulation of production - cut effects, there is an expectation that supply and demand will reach a new balance. It is expected that steel futures may first decline and then rebound, and the space for further decline is limited. It is advisable to try buying hedging or investment in the large basis range after mid - November, and attention should be paid to the resistance of the spot market and whether subsequent production data can stabilize temporarily [9] 5. Industry News - The State Administration for Market Regulation will strengthen anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement to maintain a healthy market competition order [10] - From January to October 2025, the national coke production was 419.05 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; steel production was 1.21759 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; pig iron production was 711.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [10] - In October 2025, the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, and the growth rate accelerated by 6.4 percentage points compared with September [10] - From January to October 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4.08914 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.62%. By industry, the investment in the primary industry was 80.75 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%; the investment in the second industry was 1.48411 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.8%; the investment in the third industry was 2.52429 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.3% [10] - In October 2025, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 410 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the crude oil production was 18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%; the crude oil processing volume was 63.43 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%; the natural gas production was 22.1 billion cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%; the power generation was 800.2 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [10] - In October 2025, among 41 major industries, 29 industries had year - on - year growth in added value. The coal mining and washing industry increased by 6.5%, the oil and gas extraction industry increased by 1.9%, and the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1.4% [11] - From January to October 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 788.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 9.7%. Among them, domestic loans were 121.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.8%; foreign investment was 190 million yuan, a decrease of 37.5%; self - raised funds were 284.19 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0%; deposits and prepayments were 232.57 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.0%; personal mortgage loans were 108.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% [11] - From January to October 2025, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 719.82 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%; the sales volume was 690.17 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.6%. At the end of October, the unsold commercial housing area was 756.06 million square meters, a decrease of 3.22 million square meters compared with the end of September [11] - From January to October 2025, the national real estate development investment was 735.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%; the housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the new housing construction area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9% [11] - In early November 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.26 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.926 million tons, a 6.0% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.804 million tons, a 3.5% increase in daily output month - on - month; 18.84 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.884 million tons, a 5.5% decrease in daily output month - on - month [11] - In early November 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises was 15.49 million tons, an increase of 860,000 tons or 5.9% compared with the previous ten - day period; an increase of 3.12 million tons or 25.3% compared with the beginning of the year; a decrease of 390,000 tons or 2.5% compared with the same ten - day period of last month; an increase of 1.83 million tons or 13.4% compared with the same ten - day period of last year; an increase of 800,000 tons or 5.4% compared with the same ten - day period of the year before last [11] - In early November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 8.93 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons or 1.3% compared with the previous period, and the inventory continued to decline with a narrowing decline rate; an increase of 2.34 million tons or 35.5% compared with the beginning of the year; an increase of 2 million tons or 28.9% compared with the same period of last year [11] - Shanxi Coking Coal stated on November 14 that it has no layout in the new energy field for the time being [11] - Changyuan Power's wholly - owned subsidiary's 100MW wind farm project in Babao Town, Songzi City, Hubei Province, was approved on November 14. The dynamic total investment of the project is 582.91 million yuan, and the static total investment is 572.5 million yuan [11] - In the week of November 14, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port decreased during the fluctuation. As of November 14, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.5 million tons, a decrease of 270,000 tons compared with the same period of last week, the same as the same period of last month, and a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the same period of last year [11] - On November 12, the vice - president of the China Iron and Steel Association met with the business and development executive vice - president of Vale, and they exchanged views on the operation and demand of the Chinese steel industry, Vale's iron ore production and operation, and the green and low - carbon development of the steel industry [11][12] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for the global oil surplus in 2026 for the sixth consecutive month, expecting the daily supply to exceed demand by about 4 million barrels [12] - In October 2025, India's electricity demand decreased by 5.2% year - on - year due to abnormal rainfall and lower temperatures [12] 6. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major markets, the weekly output of five major steel products, steel mill inventory, social inventory, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai spot and January contracts for rebar and hot - rolled coil [16][19][22][27][32][33]

期市有风险，投资需谨慎 政策预期持续发酵，焦煤大涨可否持续？ 黑金聚焦-热点专题 曹颖 黑色金属首席分析师 Z0012043 7 月份以来，先是"反内卷"政策预期引爆了整体工业品的走强，后有各省 转发能源局 108 号文引发了市场对于核查煤矿超产情况的关注度直线上升，从而 导致焦煤走出了久违的剧烈波动行情。如今焦煤期货远月合约价格已经涨超 1200 元/吨，焦煤期指也已超越年初水平，如何评估其上涨的持续性呢？本文尝 试结合对于近期一系列政策信息的一些思考，试图做出些许探讨供参考。 一、政策具体执行有待观察，但在保供基础上出现变化 各地所转发的国家能源局于 2025 年 7 月 10 日印发的关于组织开展煤矿生产 情况核查，促进煤炭供应平稳有序的通知，是本轮上涨行情中市场所关注的焦点。 本次核查范围包括了山西、内蒙古、安徽、河南、贵州、陕西、宁夏、新疆等 8 省（区），要求所有煤矿应合理组织生产，年度原煤产量不得超过公告产能，月 度原煤产量不得超过公告产能的 10%。对超能力生产的煤矿，一律责令停产整改。 目前，有关省（区）正在组织生产煤矿和联合试运转煤矿的生产情况核查，于 8 月 15 日前报送国家能源局，国 ...