新华财经太原12月3日电（记者张磊）秦皇岛煤炭网3日发布的环渤海动力煤价格指数报收于706元／ 吨，环比上行8元／吨。分析认为，本周期煤炭市场供强需弱格局进一步显现，市场看空情绪持续升 温，现货价格下行通道进一步夯实，但因12月份中长期合同价格大幅上涨，加权平均计算下，本周期环 渤海动力煤价格指数呈现涨势。 供给方面，在保供政策导向下，从产地到终端多环节库存呈现不同程度累积状态，其中在主要煤运铁路 持续高效发运下，北方港口累库最为明显，截至12月3日，环渤海九港库存2729.7万吨，增长17.5%，部 分港口面临疏港压力，市场看涨信心被加速击破，悲观看空情绪占据主流。 需求方面，虽然近期冷空气活动频繁，但影响范围及强度有限，沿海八省电厂日耗继续在180-190万吨 之间震荡，旺季需求迟迟未见兑现，同时前期煤价超预期上涨，已经透支了部分旺季预期，随着情绪性 利好被市场消化，供需基本面趋向弱平衡，煤价底部支撑加速削弱。 整体来看，现阶段煤炭供强需弱格局加剧，现货价格跌幅有所扩大，全国煤交会召开在即，市场观望情 绪升温。煤交会结束之后，下游或增加部分拉运需求，但在终端煤耗未出现大幅攀升、市场信心得不到 有效修复之前 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - Dayou Energy (大有能源) expects a net loss of 820 million yuan for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of 490 million yuan in the same period last year, indicating an increased loss [2] - The main reason for the increased loss is the continuous decline in the price of thermal coal, with an average price drop of approximately 29% year-on-year, leading to a decrease in coal sales revenue by about 746 million yuan [2][4] - Despite an increase in coal production (5.21 million tons, up 10.17%) and sales (5.08 million tons, up 9.66%), the revenue loss from falling prices could not be offset, resulting in a coal sales revenue of 1.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.22% [4] Group 2: Industry Trends - The domestic coal market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with high production levels and limited demand growth, leading to a downward trend in coal prices [3][5] - As of June 27, 2025, the price of Q5000 thermal coal in Shandong was reported at 535-560 yuan per ton, a cumulative drop of 162.5 yuan per ton (22.89%) since the end of 2024 [3] - The overall coal supply remains sufficient, with national coal production reaching 1.99 billion tons from January to May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6% [5][6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The coal market is expected to maintain a loose supply-demand relationship in the first half of 2025, with prices likely to continue declining [5] - For the second half of 2025, it is anticipated that the supply-demand situation may ease, with potential support for coal prices during the peak summer months due to increased electricity consumption [7] - Forecasts suggest that the average price of Q5000 thermal coal in Shandong for the second half of 2025 may be around 560 yuan per ton, a decrease of approximately 60 yuan per ton (9.68%) from the first half [7]

Core Viewpoint - Daqin Railway reported a decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 and the full year 2024, indicating a challenging operating environment due to reduced coal transport volumes and increased costs [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Daqin Railway achieved operating revenue of 17.801 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.56%, and a net profit of 2.563 billion yuan, down 15.76% [1]. - For the full year 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 74.627 billion yuan, a decline of 7.89%, and a net profit of 9.036 billion yuan, down 24.44% [1]. Coal Transport Dynamics - Coal transport remains the primary revenue source, accounting for 72.88% of the company's main business income in 2024 [2]. - The total coal transport volume in 2024 was 58.907 million tons, a decrease of 5.1% year-on-year, influenced by upstream supply constraints and environmental regulations [2][5]. - The overall coal supply-demand situation is loose, with domestic coal prices declining significantly, impacting the company's revenue from coal transport [3][4]. Market Conditions - The domestic coal market is experiencing a downward trend in prices, with the CCTD reference price for 5500 kcal thermal coal at 658 yuan per ton, down 20.91% year-on-year [3]. - The company faces challenges from high coal inventories, low prices, and increased competition from imported coal, which is affecting its operational performance [5][6]. Future Outlook - Daqin Railway aims for a slight increase in revenue and transport volumes in 2025, projecting operating revenue of 78 billion yuan and a cargo transport volume of 710 million tons [6]. - The company anticipates challenges in maintaining coal transport volumes due to external factors such as stricter regulations and shifts towards green energy [5][6].